What does hot new star Berenice Bejo have in common with Kate Winslet and Keisha Castle-Hughes? Like those two ladies, she may find herself with an Academy Award nomination in the lead actress category this Tuesday rather than the supporting race for which she has been campaigning.

Bejo, a French actress starring as Peppy Miller in the black-and-white silent film sensation “The Artist,” has enjoyed supporting nods from the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild, and Broadcast Film Critics in recent weeks. However, due to her large amount of screen time and importance to the plot, this week the British Academy nominated her in the lead actress category  at the BAFTA Awards.

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Oscar voters have already turned in their ballots, but they have been known to go their own way over the years when nominating performers. Even though Winslet (“The Reader,” 2008) and Castle-Hughes (“Whale Rider,” 2003) were positioned as supporting actresses, the Oscars nominated them as leads because they were major forces in their films. In effect, Winslet knocked herself out of a lead nod for "Revolutionary Road" that year but ultimately claimed the Oscar anyway.

Keep in mind that Academy voters do not have ready-made ballots like many groups where names are already listed in certain categories. They are blank, meaning the names must be written into the slots where the voters feel like they belong.

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Is it possible that we have been projecting Bejo into a supporting slot for the past few months when academy voters have a whole other plan up their sleeves? Viola Davis (“The Help”), Meryl Streep (“The Iron Lady”), and Michelle Williams ("My Week with Marilyn") seem to have their lead spots secured. However, Glenn Close (“Albert Nobbs”) and Tilda Swinton (“We Need to Talk About Kevin”) need to watch their backs just in case a young French actress steals away their prized Oscar nod.

On Dec. 27, Oscar ballots for Best Picture were sent to 5,783 members of the Academy with instructions to list up to five films. We know between five and 10 nominees will be announced on Tuesday. To reap a bid, a film must be one of the top choices of at least 5% of the members taking part in the nomination phase. (See explanation of vote counting for other categories here.)

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Between our Experts, Editors and Users, 1,508 ballots have been cast for Best Picture. As per the modified preferential system in place at the academy, we sorted these ballots by first choice and only those films listed at the top of at least one ballot remained in play. Five percent of these ballots is 76 votes and is our magic number for a nomination. 

The maximum number of Best Picture contenders is 10. In our scenario, the initial threshold for a nomination is set at 138 votes (1,508 divided by 11 and rounded up). If each of 10 films reached this cut-off, they would account for 1,380 ballots, leaving only 128 to be counted, thereby making it impossible for an eleventh film to get the necessary first place votes. 

There are three ways to get to our magic number of 76:

- be listed first on a ballot;
- be listed second on a ballot with a film in first place so popular it triggers the surplus rule; or
- be listed on a ballot with a film in first place that is tops with less than 1% of voters. 

The surplus rule is applied to all films that are listed first on at least 10% more ballots than the initial threshold required for a nomination. In our scenario -- where this initial threhold is 138 votes -- this would apply to those films which receive at least 152 first place votes. Each of these ballots is apportioned as follows: a share goes to the first place film such that it reaches the initial nomination threshold and the remaining share goes to the second place film (assuming it got at least one first place vote to stay eligible). 

"The Artist" topped 756 ballots. As it only needs 138 votes to reach the initial threshold, each ballot is apportioned with .18 of the vote going to "The Artist" and .82 to the second place film. Those fractional votes are the equivalent of 618 ballots in all. 

"The Descendants" made the grade with 232 voters so it too triggers the surplus rule with .59 of the vote going to "The Descendants" and .41 to the second place film. Those fractional votes are the equivalent of 94 ballots in all. 

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While the Best Picture nominees will be determined with a new counting method, contenders in the other top categories will be selected under the preferental system that has been in place for years. To illustrate how that system works, let's look at this year's Best Actress race. 

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Between our Experts, Editors and Users, 1,375 ballots have been cast for Best Actress. As per the preferential system, we sorted these ballots by the first choice and only those women listed at the top of at least one ballot continued on in the process.

There will be five nominees for Best Actress. In our scenario, the initial threshold for a nomination is set at 230 votes (i.e., 1,375 divided by 6 and rounded up). If each of five women reaches this cut-off, they will account for 1,150 votes, making it mathematically impossible for a sixth actress to get more than 225 votes. 

With the magic number set at 230 (16.73% of ballots), the first place votes are counted. Meryl Streep ("The Iron Lady") has 770 votes and Viola Davis ("The Help") has 357 and both will reap a bid. Usually, these ballots would be set to one side at this point. However, each of these newly minted nominees was so popular that they reaped at least 20% more first place votes than needed to be nominated -- in our scenario that is 276 votes  -- and triggered the surplus rule.

When this happens, the ballots for this nominee are apportioned as follows: a share goes to the nominee such that they reach the magic number and the remaining share goes to the actress below her on the ballot who is still in the running. 

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Adele matches "Titanic" Billboard record: "For the sixteenth week in its 48-week run, Adele’s chart behemoth '21' topped the Billboard 200, selling 104,000 copies and matching 'Titanic's' 16-week run atop the chart in 1998. All told, Adele’s ubiquitous album has now surpassed the 6 million mark, a feat last achieved by Taylor Swift’s 'Fearless,' which took twice the time — 96 weeks — to do so. If Adele can win a few Grammys next month (and let’s be honest, she probably will), there’s no telling how high '21' may soar." EW.COM

"The Artist" wins at the London Critics' Circle Awards: "French black-and-white silent movie 'The Artist' scooped three big prizes at the London Film Critics' Circle Awards on Thursday -- best film, best director and best actor. The honors added to growing momentum for the sentimental throwback to the 'pre-talkie' Hollywood era after it won three Golden Globes and was the most-nominated movie for Britain's BAFTA awards ... Lead actor Jean Dujardin and director Michel Hazanavicius were both in London to receive their awards." REUTERS

SAG stunt awards will be handed out before the main event: "Screen Actors Guild Awards Committee Chair JoBeth Williams and Awards Committee Member Scott Bakula, will announce the recipients of Screen Actors Guild’s Honors for Outstanding Action Performances by Film and Television Stunt Ensembles from the 18th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards’ red carpet during the live SAG Awards digital pre-show which will be webcast on TNT.tv, TBS.com and People.com on Sunday, Jan. 29, 2012 beginning at 6 p.m. (ET) / 3 p.m. (PT), 18th Annual SAG Awards Executive Producer and Director Jeff Margolis announced today. The Stunt Honors recipients will be announced at 6:15 p.m (ET) / 3:15 p.m. (PT)."

SAG Awards coverage will include web content: "TNT, TBS and People Magazine are once again teaming up for a special live webcast that will put viewers right in the middle of the glitz and glamour of the 18th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards on Sunday, Jan. 29. The webcast will begin outside the Shrine Exposition Center in Los Angeles with live coverage of the red-carpet arrivals on tnt.tv, tbs.com and People.com, beginning at 6 p.m. (ET)/3 p.m. (PT). In addition, tnt.tv will serve as 'SAG Awards Central,' offering a wide assortment of interactive functions and SAG Awards-related content designed to complement the on-air telecast with a dynamic digital experience."

American Cinema Editors will honor Joel Cox and Doug Ibold with Lifetime Career Achievement Awards: "The Lifetime Career Achievement Award honors veteran editors whose body of work and reputation within the industry is outstanding. Clint Eastwood will present to Cox and Dick Wolf will present to Ibold.  As previously announced, Patton Oswalt will serve as the evening’s MC and winners of the ACE Eddie Awards will be announced that evening in nine categories of film, television and documentaries.  Nominees were announced January 16th."

Rupert Murdoch carded at the Golden Globes: "Here’s what happened when the media mogul crossed into the pre-show real estate where HFPA member Ruben Nepales was working. Per Nepales: 'Our instruction at the red carpet entrance was to ask arriving guests for their IDs only if they didn’t look familiar. Well, an assistant helping us asked Murdoch for his ID. Before we could say, “Not necessary,” the media tycoon had whisked it out.' Good for Murdoch. He may still have one foot in the News of the World hacking scandal, but thanks to this kind of behavior and a recent Twitter outreach, he is doing his best to put the other one best-forward." FISHBOWL LA

"Super 8" reaped three bids for the 59th annual awards of the Motion Picture Sound Editors. On Wednesday, it figured among the five contenders for the top prize in sound mixing from the Cinema Audio Society.

While the CAS fetes only one film, the MPSE has a variety of categories. "Super 8" contends in: dialogue and ADR; music; and sound effects and foley. "Drive," "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo," "Rise of the Planet of the Apes" and "Transformers: Dark of the Moon" all picked up a pair of nominations.

Last year, "Inception" won two of its three bids -- sound effects & foley and music -- while "The Social Network" won dialogue & ADR. "True Grit," which over the Cinema Audio Society for its sound mixing, was shut out.

At the Oscars, "Inception" prevailed over "Toy Story 3," "TRON: Legacy," "True Grit" and "Unstoppable." In 2009, "Avatar" won the same two MPSE races as "Inception" but lost the Oscar race to "The Hurt Locker." Among the other also-rans was "Inglorious Basterds" which had won the dialogue & ADR award at the MPSE.

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"The Help" leads the NAACP Image Awards: "Critically-acclaimed drama 'The Help' looks set to dominate the 2012 NAACP Image Awards after landing eight nominations. The movie adaptation of Kathryn Stockett's bestselling book of the same name will compete for Outstanding Motion Picture against seven-time nominee 'Pariah,' comedy 'Tower Heist,' 'Jumping The Broom' and 'The First Grader,' while stars Viola Davis and Emma Stone will go head-to-head for the title of Outstanding Actress in a Motion Picture. 'The Help' co-stars Bryce Dallas Howard, Octavia Spencer and Cicely Tyson are also nominated in the Outstanding Supporting Actress field, alongside 'Pariah's' Kim Wayans and 'Bridesmaids' comedienne Maya Rudolph."

See nine rejected Oscar campaign posters: "Industry magazines like Variety are brimming with 'For Your Consideration' ads touting the usual suspects, including those who won Golden Globes last Sunday. But what about those potential nominees and angles that aren't quite so obvious? We're rooting for you, Mike Vogel in 'The Help'! And even 'Jack and Jill' has its Oscars champion ... somewhere. With the help of our friend Old Red Jalopy, we've unearthed nine, shall we say, 'unorthodox' Oscar campaign posters you might have missed." NEXT MOVIE

The GLAAD Media Award nominees include 'Beginners,' 'Albert Nobbs,' and 'Modern Family': "The Gay & Lesbian Alliance Against Defamation (GLAAD), the nation’s lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) media advocacy and anti-defamation organization, announced today the nominees for its 23rd Annual GLAAD Media Awards.  By recognizing and honoring media for outstanding images of the LGBT community, the GLAAD Media Awards serve as a benchmark for the media industry and complement GLAAD’s work to bring LGBT images and stories to Americans." GLAAD

Broadway's "Ghost" musical fills out its cast: "Casting is now complete for the Broadway production of Ghost The Musical, which will star original London leads Richard Fleeshman and Caissie Levy. The supernatural romance will begin performances March 15 at the Lunt-Fontanne Theatre ... The Broadway cast will also include Bryce Pinkham ('Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson,' 'Orphans' Home Cycle') as Carl Bruner and Broadway newcomer Da’Vine Joy Randolph in the role of medium Oda May Brown." PLAYBILL

Nominees Rihanna and Coldplay will perform together at the Grammys: "A performance by current Grammy Award nominees Coldplay and Rihanna, as well as a performance by nominee and 2012 MusiCares Person of the Year Paul McCartney, are the latest additions to the stellar lineup for the 54th Annual Grammy Awards. Music's Biggest Night —  hosted by two-time Grammy Award winner and 'NCIS: Los Angeles' star LL Cool J —  takes place live from the STAPLES Center in Los Angeles Sunday, Feb. 12, 2012 (8:00-11:30 PM, ET/delayed PT) on the CBS Television Network."

Dan Kois interviews Razzie Awards head John Wilson: "With Golden Raspberry ballots out to voting members and the nominations less than a week away, stars’ Razzie hopes rest with one man: bearded impresario John Wilson, who started the Razzies 31 years ago and has been running them ever since. Wilson was gracious enough to take time out of his incredibly busy schedule to talk to RazzieWatch. After we finished hyperventilating, we did a darn good job interviewing our only personal lifelong hero!" GRANTLAND

The Costume Designers Guild announced nominations for their 14th annual kudos in three categories of films: Period, Fantasy and Contemporary.

Period pictures in the running are: "The Artist," "Jane Eyre," "The Help," "Hugo" and "W.E." "Hugo" costumer Sandy Powell already has three Oscars ("Shakespeare in Love," "The Aviator" and "The Young Victoria") while Phillips ("W.E.") is a one-time nominee ("Walk the Line").

The fantasy films nominated are: "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2," "Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides," "Red Riding Hood," "Thor" and "X Men: First Class."

Contemporary contenders are "Bridesmaids," "The Descendants," "Drive," "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo" and Melancholia.

The majority of eventual Oscar nominees are likely to be period pieces. Last year, two of the three CDG period contenders -- "The King's Speech" and "True Grit" -- reaped Oscar bids. In 2009, three of the CDG choices for period film costumes made the final five at the Oscars while in both 2008 and 2007 four made the cut.

By naming only three period pictures last year, the CDG left the Oscar field open and two of its fantasy nominees -- "Alice in Wonderland" and "The Tempest" -- made the grade with the Academy. Indeed, "Alice in Wonderland" won awards from both groups, marking the seventh time in the 13-year history of the the CDG that a champ of theirs prevailed at the Oscars. 

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The Cinema Audio Society nominees for Best Sound Mixing are "Hanna," "Hugo," "Moneyball," "Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides" and "Super 8." 

Last year, "True Grit" edged out "Black Swan," "Inception," "Shutter Island" and "The Social Network" for the CAS award. However, "Inception" beat it as well as "The Social Network," "Salt" and "The King's Speech" at the Oscars.  

In 2010, the CAS bestowed its top prize on "The Hurt Locker" which went on to win the Oscar as well. Four of the five Cinema Audio Society nominees for sound mixing also contended at the Oscars with just "District 9" being replaced by "Inglourious Basterds." 

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Now that Entertainment Weekly Oscar seer Dave Karger has locked in his final predictions for who'll nab nominations next week, Gold Derby wag Tom O'Neil dishes with him about the races for Best Picture and Director.