Last year, "An Education" led the BAFTA long lists with 17 mentions including best picture and for seven performances while "Inglourious Basterds" merited 14 mentions including best picture and four performances. "Avatar" was short-listed in all races in which it was eligible except acting earning 11 mentions, as did "The Hurt Locker" (including picture and three acting bids) and "The Lovely Bones" (four acting bids but no picture mention).

In the second round, "Avatar," "An Education" and "The Hurt Locker" led with eight nominations each, including best picture nods. Another two of the top Oscar contenders -- "Up in the Air" and "Precious" -- fared less well, though they counted best picture nods among their six and four BAFTA bids, respectively. "Inglorious Basterds" also earned six nominations, including directing and screenplay nods for Quentin Tarantino, but was bumped from the best picture race which remained at five contenders. Among the other Oscar hopefuls, "District 9" landed seven nominations, including directing and screenplay bids while "Star Trek" reaped just two tech nods. "Up" contended in four categories, including animated film and original screenplay. That latter category is also where "The Hangover" and "A Serious Man" each earned their only BAFTA bids. "Nine" was nominated only for hair and makeup while "Invictus" was shut out.

On the night, "The Hurt Locker" won six of its eight races, including the top prize of best picture while "Avatar" prevailed in two of its eight bids -- production design and visual effects -- and "An Education" took just one of its eight nominations with a best actress win for Carey Mulligan. Up in the Air" went one for six winning adapted screenplay while "Precious" came out on top in one of its four categories, supporting actress (Mo'Nique). The lone win for "Inglorious Basterds" was for supporting actor Christoph Waltz.

Two years ago, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" and "Frost/Nixon" led the long lists with 14 mentions each, followed by "Changeling," "The Dark Knight," "The Reader," "Revolutionary Road" and "Slumdog Millionaire" with 13 apiece. In the second round, "Benjamin Button" and "Slumdog Millionaire" both landed 11 nominations while "The Dark Knight" earned eight (but not a best picture bid). "Changeling" had seven nods, "Frost/Nixon" six and "The Reader" five. In the end, it was eventual Oscar champ "Slumdog Millionaire" that won the BAFTA best picture prize. Three of the four acting winners -- Kate Winslet ("The Reader"), Heath Ledger ("The Dark Knight") and Penelope Cruz ("Vicky Christina Barcelona") -- went on to prevail at the Oscars. The fourth -- Mickey Rourke ("The Wrestler") -- lost the Oscar to Sean Penn ("Milk").

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Historically, the chapter choices indicated on the BAFTA long lists are a good barometer of the eventual nominees. Of the 15 long list mentions for "The King's Speech," an even dozen of these rated in the top five for the respective chapters, including three performances (Colin Firth, Geoffrey Rush, Helen Bonham Carter) and directing (Tom Hooper). "Black Swan" had 10 of its 15 long list candidates make the top five, including two performers -- Barbara Hershey and Natalie Portman -- and director Darren Aronofsky.

For "Inception," eight of its 14 mentions were among the top five including both original screenplay and directing for Christopher Nolan and the lead performance by Leonardo DiCaprio. By comparison, "Made in Dagenham" managed to make the top five with just four of its 14 mentions.

"The Social Network" has six of its 13 mentions among the top five, including directing (David Fincher) and both lead (Jesse Eisenberg) and supporting (Andrew Garfield) actors. While "True Grit" batted .500 with half of its dozen mentions in the top five including lead Jeff Bridges, directors Joel and Ethan Coen made the cut only for adapted screenplay. Rather, the directors branch went with Danny Boyle as a top pick with his film "127 Hours" having 5 of its 11 mentions earning that coveted asterisk including leading man James Franco.

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While the Academy Awards tease us with lists of pre-nomination semifinalists in only certain categories -- such as foreign film and some of the technical ones -- the BAFTAs produce long lists in almost all categories with 15 films in the running in most of the 17 races. The final five nominees in each will be announced Jan. 18 (one week before nominations for the Oscars are unveiled) with the awards fest on Feb. 13 (two weeks before the Academy Awards ceremony).

The 6,000 plus members of BAFTA culled these long lists from 207 eligible films. Leading with 15 mentions apiece are "Black Swan" and "The King's Speech." "Inception" and "Made in Dagenham" folllow with 14 while "The Social Network" has 13. "Alice in Wonderland," "Shutter Island," "The Fighter" and "True Grit" all merited 12 mentions apiece, and "127 Hours," "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" and "The Town" each have 11. All of these, with the exception of "Alice in Wonderland," figure in the 15 films contending for Best Picture along with "Another Year," "The Kids Are All Right," "Toy Story 3" and "Winter's Bone."

The final five foreign language films, a category which skips the second stage, are "Biutiful," "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo," "I Am Love," "Of Gods and Men" and last year's Oscar champ "The Secret in Their Eyes."

Unlike the Oscars, where the nominations in each category are determined by the members of that particular branch while the winners are voted on by the entire membership, the BAFTA long lists and nominations come from the membership at large while the winners -- except for picture, performance and foreign language film -- are chosen by the chapters (akin to the academy's branches).

BAFTA does indicate on the long lists the top five from the respective chapters so all voters can see what the experts prefer. Usually, most of these chapter choices make it to the nomination stage. For the acting branch, the top picks for the performance prizes were:

Best Actor
Javier Bardem ("Biutiful")
Jeff Bridges ("True Grit")
Jesse Eisenberg ("The Social Network")
Colin Firth ("The King's Speech")
James Franco ("127 Hours")

Best Actress
Annette Bening ("The Kids Are All Right")
Julianne Moore ("The Kids Are All Right")
Carey Mulligan ("Never Let Me Go")
Natalie Portman ("Black Swan")
Michelle Williams ("Blue Valentine")

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale ("The Fighter")
Andrew Garfield ("The Social Network")
Bob Hoskins ("Made in Dagenham")
Mark Ruffalo ("The Kids Are All Right")
Geoffrey Rush ("The King's Speech")

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams ("The Fighter")
Helena Bonham Carter ("The King's Speech")
Barbara Hershey ("Black Swan")
Lesley Manville ("Another Year")
Miranda RIchardson ("Made in Dagenham")

Among the other Best Actor hopefuls on the long list are several more of our pundits picks including Robert Duvall ("Get Low") and Ryan Gosling ("Blue Valentine"). And Leonardo DiCaprio merited mention for both "Inception" and "Shutter Island."

The Best Actress slate also includes Oscar contenders Jennifer Lawrence ("Winter's Bone") and Nicole Kidman ("Rabbit Hole"). And while Hailee Steinfeld ("True Grit") was bumped up to lead by the BAFTA voters, Lesley Manville ("Another Year") was slotted in as supporting.

Other Best Supporting Actress contenders beyond the top five include our Oscar frontrunner Melissa Leo ("The FIghter") as well as Mila Kunis ("Black Swan").

And the Best Supporting Actor line-up extends to another of our pundits choices -- Jeremy Renner ("The Town") -- as well as Matt Damon ("True Grit").

Following his well-received turn last year, Ricky Gervais to host the 68th annual edition of the Golden Globes on Jan. 16. The kudocast will air live nationwide on NBC beginning at 5 pm PT/8 pm ET. Matt Damon will be part of the presentation of the Cecil B. DeMille award to Robert DeNiro.

And, among the other bold-face names set to appear on the three-hour show are:
Julie Bowen
Kaley Cuoco
Matt Damon
Garrett Hedlund
LL Cool J
Scarlett Johansson
Jennifer Lopez
Leighton Meester
Robert Pattinson
Jada Pinkett Smith
Bruce Willis


 

Sasha Stone thinks that there are two films fighting for the tenth Best Picture bid: "It’s 'Winter’s Bone' vs. 'The Kids Are All Right.' But then again, we still don’t know what AMPAS will do. What a drag to have to pit one female-directed film against another. Two very different films, both featuring strong women, both very well reviewed. It’s a little depressing, to be sure. Two movies which were co-written, directed by and starring women are struggling for one slot." AWARDS DAILY

Last year's Oscar-winning director Kathryn Bigelow ("The Hurt Locker") revealed to Steve Pond her reasons for hosting two recent screenings of "Winter's Bone" helmed by Debra Granik: "I just think it's a masterful film that deserves exposure – and if I can do anything to help it out, I'm happy to do it." THE ODDS

For Kyle Buchanan, there has been no better Oscar campaign this season than the one for "The Social Network." As he observes, "There's been a significant new talking point each week since its fall debut, each player has gotten his moment in the sun, potential controversies have been neatly nipped in the bud, and now, riding a wave of critical adoration, the studio has decided to rerelease the film into 600 theaters on January 7." VULTURE

Kris Tapley attended Wednesday's ceremony honoring Oscar champ Robert Duvall ("Tender Mercies") and notes: "Sony Pictures Classics was smart enough to recognize that Robert Duvall could use his hands and feet in cement over at Grauman’s Chinese Theatre, a generally political honor (much like stars on the Hollywood Walk of Fame) that only happens when someone thinks it’s worth it to rally the money together. Well, a bubble-contending Best Actor hopeful (for 'Get Low') is a great cause.  But that shouldn’t take away from the fact that Duvall is, it goes without saying, a legend highly deserving of this kind of thing." As Kris reports, "James Caan served as emcee of sorts for the intimate ceremony. Also speaking were Billy Bob Thornton and Andy Garcia (who told a great joke regarding Caan that maybe three people got: 'Thank you for sleeping with Lucy Mancini.'), close friends of Duvall’s. There was a sweet moment when Duvall, his feet buried in cement, looked up to his friend and protégé, Scott Cooper, and said, 'You’ll be up here in a few years.' After the ceremony there was a quick luncheon at the Roosevelt Hotel and a birthday cake was divvied up after one more round of 'Happy Birthday.' Also on hand were filmmaker Aaron Schneider and much of the crew from 'Get Low,' as well as ubiquitous actor Robert Forster (seriously, he’s everywhere this year, it seems)." IN CONTENTION

Robert DeNiro will head the jury of the upcoming Cannes Film Festival. The 64th edition of the world's premiere filmfest unspools along the Croisette for a dozen days beginning May 11. In accepting the assignment, DeNiro said, "having served as President of the Jury in the eighties twice, I know this isn't an easy task for me or my fellow jury members, but I'm very honored and happy to head the jury for this year's Cannes Film Festival." CANNES FILM FESTIVAL

For Jeff Wells, this means, "De Niro's opinion will carry a certain weight four months hence when the Cannes Film Festival jury decides whether or not to hand the Palme d'Or to Terrence Malick's 'The Tree of Life.' That's what it boils down to, I think. (Unless, of course, it doesn't play in competition.) Or whether to tactfully sidestep the Malick altogether and hand it to Pedro Almodovar's 'The Skin That I Inhabit' or Lars Von Trier's 'Melancholia' or some other form of winged bird." HOLLYWOOD ELSEWHERE

Christopher Rosen extends the metaphor of the Academy Awards as Hollywood's Super Bowl to its logical conclusion by matching up NFL playoff teams with Oscar contenders. Among them: Chicago Bears ("The King's Speech") and the New England Patriots ("The Social Network"). MOVIELINE

Rick Porter recapped Wednesday's People's Choice Awards "with an eye on the numbers: Who would win the most awards? How many people voted? And just how many of the awards wouldn't actually be presented during the broadcast because the winners didn't show up?" His findings included: "Awards handed out on the broadcast: 21, including doubled-up ones like Katy Perry's win for favorite female artist and favorite online sensation. Awards not handed out on the broadcast: 23. If you don't come to the awards, you don't get name-checked." ZAP2IT

Melinda Newman offers the following advice: "Need to catch up on the year in pop music? A great way is through the '2011 Grammy Nominees' album, which comes out Jan. 25 on Jive Records Each year, the Recording Academy, the folks who bring you the Grammys, link with a different major label, to release the collection which highlights songs nominated for the upcoming Grammy Awards. A part of the proceeds of the album sales goes to the Recording Academy’s two charitable organizations, MusiCares and the Grammy Foundation." HITFIX

The current rialto production of "The Merchant of Venice" headlined by triple crown acting champ Al Pacino has recouped its $3.45 million dollar cost after just 10 weeks of performances. As Adam Hetrick says, "The production has been box-office gold since its Broadway arrival, grossing over a million dollars weekly and playing to capacity, a rarity for a play on Broadway." PLAYBILL 

The Producers Guild of America created the Stanley Kramer Award in 2002 "to honor a motion picture, producer or other individual, whose achievement or contribution illuminates provocative social issues in an accessible and elevating fashion." Kramer, who died in 2001, was a nine-time Oscar nominee for producing and directing such provocative pictures as "The Defiant Ones" and "Guess Who's Coming to Dinner."

For the first time in its decade-long history, the award will be going to an individual this year -- two time Oscar champ Sean Penn ("Mystic River," "Milk"). In making the announcement, Paula Wagner, chair of the Producers Guild Awards, said, "We are proud to honor Sean Penn with this award as he truly exemplifies the Stanley Kramer legacy. Sean is a committed activist who has used his extraordinary talents and influence to shed light on powerful stories, causes and individual, through film, journalism, and global humanitarian organizations."

The first film to receive the Stanley Kramer Award was "I Am Sam" which starred Penn. Since then, the PGA has honored "Antwone Fisher," "In America," "Hotel Rwanda," "Good Night, and Good Luck," "An Inconvenient Truth," "The Great Debaters," "Milk" and "Precious."

Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood) and I agree that there are two Oscar locks for nominations as Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale ("The Fighter") and Geoffrey Rush ("The King's Speech"). There are many strong rivals for those other three slots. Who'll win? Watch our slugfest below, then see our videos tracking the contests for Best Picture, Best Actor and Best Actress, which we shot at the Hollywood Museum.

The Cinema Audio Society nominees for best sound mixing are "Black Swan," "Inception," "Shutter Island," "The Social Network" and "True Grit." Last year, the CAS bestowed its top prize on "The Hurt Locker" which went on to win the Oscar as well. Four of the five Cinema Audio Society nominees for sound mixing also contended at the Oscars with just "District 9" being replaced by "Inglourious Basterds." 

In both 2008 and 2007 three of the five CAS picks for sound mixing were Oscar nominees as well. While "Slumdog Millionaire" won with both the CAS and the Oscars lin 2008, the trend has been for two films to split these prizes. The 2007 CAS champ was "No Country for Old Men" and the Oscar went to "The Bourne Ultimatum." And though "Dreamgirls" took both prizes in 2006, in each of the previous four years the CAS winner lost at the Oscars. (In 2002, CAS winner "Master and Commander" lost the sound-mixing Oscar to "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King," but it won the prize for sound editing.)

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Don't expect Wednesday's nominees for the USC Scripter_Award -- "127 Hours," "The Ghost Writer," "The Social Network," "True Grit" and "Winter's Bone"-- to forecast the line-up in the adapted screenplay category at the Academy Awards. This prize only honors films adapted from novels, short stories, comic books, journalism and other screenplays with both the source material and the adapted screenplay feted.

As it excludes stage-to-screen adaptations and foreign-language films, this award, now in its 23rd year, has forecast just six of the eventual Oscar champs. Two of those instances were fairly recently -- in 2008 with "Slumdog Millionaire," and the year before, with "No Country for Old Men." The other repeat winners were "A Beautiful Mind" (2001), "L.A. Confidential" (1997), "Sense and Sensibility" (1995) and "Schindler's List" (1993).

Last year, "Up in the Air" prevailed with the Scripter jury over three of its competitors at the Oscars -- "District 9," "An Education" and "Precious" -- as well as "Crazy Heart." The fifth Oscar nominee was the adapted script for "In the Loop." However, it was "Precious" that eventually won over academy voters.

Historically, the WGA Awards lineup has been a far better harbinger of both the Oscar nominees and the eventual winner, with the WGA champ taking the Oscar six times in the last decade. However, last year WGA winner "Up in the Air" lost the Oscar to "Precious" and this year several of the leading adapted-screenplay contenders were ruled ineligible by the WGA, including "Toy Story 3" and Scripter nominee "Winter's Bone."

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