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2012 DGA Awards Thread

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  • Anonymous
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    #78674

    Steven Spielberg
    Ben Affleck
    Kathryn Bigelow
    Ang Lee
    Paul Thomas Anderson
     
      The top 3 seem locked. Spielberg has won the DGA before many times, Bigelow and Affleck are both acclaimed and have popped up all over Directing awards.

    Although i think Ang Lee will miss out an Oscar nod, I can’t see him being snubbed-unfilmable book, 3D, his peers respect him

    Hooper would get in, but the critical reception of Les Miss is lukewarm, many claiming his direction is to blame. He missed the Globe, but if the film does well at the guilds, the previous DGA and Oscar winner is in, especially if Les miss regains its frontrunner status.

    That leaves the 3 Weinstein boys: O Russell, Tarantino, and PTA. DGA usually goes for genre-Nolan for Inception, Fincher for Dragon Tattoo, so QT has an advantage. Russell missed the Globe, and some may say the film is more of a screenplay/actor deal. PTA won at Venice, many peers will be supporting him like Michael Mann did, but it really hasn’t maintained a lot of buzz minus the Los Angeles prize.

    DARK HORSES:
    Michael Haneke
    Christopher Nolan
    Joss Whedon
    Benh Zeitlin

    So what do you think?
                       

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    black30
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    #78676

    Paul Thomas Anderson.

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    babypook
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    #78677

    This is Spielberg’s to lose, but if he comes up short, who’s going to take his spot?

    I dont wish to go there.

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    Scottferguson
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    #78678

    Spielberg, Bigelow, Lee, Affleck, Russell

    I’d be surprised if Hooper makes it – the DGA membership is huge, very few members are feature film directors, most are TV or assts or production managers. They need to vote soon, have to see films (I think they finally dropped their screener prohibition), Bigelow likely still makes though late, but b/w the reviews saying the Hooper’s direction is the biggest complaint about the film, the straight male (and somewhat younger) base of the membership, and the lateness of the release, I think he has an upward struggle.

    Tarantino also would have a better chance except for the lateness.   

        

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    allabout oscars
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    #78679

    DGA……Spielberg, Bigelow, Affleck, Lee, Tarantino
    Oscar noms…..Spielberg, Bigelow, Affleck, Anderson, Hooper

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    Scottferguson
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    #78680

    Oscars – in order of likelihood for me

    Spielberg, Bigelow, Lee, Affleck, Haneke, Russell, PT Anderson, Tarantino, Mendes, W. Anderson, Hooper

    From what I hear, I expect Hooper to get very few of the #1 votes he needs even if he gets some votes down ballot. I’d be surprised, maybe even shocked, if he’s nominated. Haneke is going to get a lot of #1 votes, far more I’d suspect than anyone than Spielberg and Bigelow, which I think will be enough to get him in. Lee and Affleck most likely to get enough #1 + other votes to make it in as consensus choices.  

    The Oscar director nominations usually are the most critic parallel/serious-minded set among all groups who nominate for director. I can’t Hooper not getting a DGA nom and then making it into the Oscars  

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    allabout oscars
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    #78681

    Most of the years…either 3 or 4 of the DGA nominees
    translate into the actual oscar 5….very rare for it
    ever to be 5 for 5…so there is room for 1 or 2
    to be forgotten in favor of 2 others…

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    allabout oscars
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    #78682

    Whers the HFP  GG love for AMOUR…??
    I am so surprised they didnt nominate Riva or Haneke there..

    I think the best chances for AMOUR are Riva for actress  and Haneke getting an orig screenplay nom…
    Foreign film of course

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    Scottferguson
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    #78683

    Sony Classics traditionally fares less well at the GGs than Oscars; the GGs for foreign language Oscars almost always nominates only those who are already known in the US for English language roles and kiss HFPA ass – neither of which happened for Amour actors

    Amour chosen best film by LAFC and named best film by Kenny Turan/LA Times is vastly more important than what the (for the directors’ branch) irrelevant HFPA does.

    And yes, the Oscar director lineup is usually a bit different than the DGA. But when it is, I doubt you’ll find many, if even any, when a choice was a director whose film got worse reviews than the one he is replacing. When they are different, it is usually for a more critically acclaimed film. That is why Hooper is in trouble, even if (as I doubt will happen) he gets a DGA nomination.

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    Scottferguson
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    #78684

    Last 20 years, when AMPAS/DGA different, listed by film, AMPAS first

    Tree of Life instead of Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
    True Grit instead of Inception
    The Reader instead of The Dark Knight
    Juno instead of Into the Wild
    Vera Drake instead of Finding Neverland
    City of God instead of Seabiscuit
    Talk to Her instead of Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
    Mulholland Drive and Gosford Park over Memento and Moulin Rouge
    Billy Elliot over Almost Famous
    Being John Malkovich over The Green Mile
    Full Monty and The Sweet Hereafter over Amistad and As Good As It Gets
    The People Vs Larry Flynt over Jerry Maguire
    Babe over Apollo 13
    Red and Bullets Over Broadway over The Shawshank Redemption and Four Weddings and a Funeral
    In the Name of the Father and Short Cuts over The Fugitive and The Age of Innocence
    Scent of a Woman over A Few Good Men

    That’s 20 years – though not entirely one sided, it gives a strong hint that the Academy, when they are different, goes for the smaller, more director-centric, less-audience friendly film

    Amour is the film that this year would be most like The Tree of Life, Vera Drake, Talk to Her, City of God, Mulholland Dr., Being John Malkovich, Red, Short Cuts – all critically acclaimed films, niche items, critics’ groups awards. The Master also falls into line with some of the difference selections. The sole case I saw where a director was nominated where his film had less acclaim than its DGA alternative was The Reader (vs The Dark Knight), so it has happened, but it is very rare, and so far, Les Miserables’ reviews are worse than even The Reader’s. The only musical to have an Oscar director nomination in 20 years was Chicago, which won best picture. Throughout Oscar history, there have been many best picture nominees that were musicals that didn’t have a best director nomination. From 1945 (when BP went back to 5 nominees) I count 10 out of 20 times when a musical was nominated for best picture that its director wasn’t nominated for best director – a 50% incidence, way, way higher than the normal discrepancy b/w those categories usually.

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    Max 2.0
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    #78685

    Scott, I’m confused. Which one you prefer, Amour or Zero Dark Thirty?

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    Scottferguson
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    #78686

    They are both terrific films. I slightly prefer ZD30, though I have seen it once and Amour twice, so slightly different experience. Bigelow is a near lock for both AA and DGA, so didn’t factor into my analysis – I am explaining why I have Haneke as 5th most likely Oscar nominee, which for me history provides a strong case for.

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    seany
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    #78687

    Scottferguson was that a jab at Cotillard the kissing ass thing,  she was amazing in rust and bone from what i am hearing the academy does not like amour but they really like rust and bone i think Cottillard is a lock a foreign language performance nominated at SAG is an automatic lock for an oscar nomination i don`t care who the name is.

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    Scottferguson
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    #78688

    It was a general over the years comment. I wasn’t specifically think of Cotillard this year (who does I think give her best performance in Rust and Bone, and the first one I’ve seen – and I’ve seen most of her French films – where I think she deserves a nomination.

    Among contenders this year, though, I prefer Riva, Weisz, Chastain to her.  

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    seany
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    #78689

    I didn`t think Chastain was anything special she`s a good actress but never elevates the material, Weisz good the movie dreadfully boring, Riva great although too much of a knock off of away from her and julie christie.

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