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2016 Independent Spirit Award Nominee Predictions

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  • Teridax
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    #197700

    In less than a month from now, on Nov. 24th, the nominees for the Independent Spirit Awards will be announced. Even though we are allowed to make predictions for the actual winners of these Awards, I thought it would be fun to try and see how many of us can guess right.

    Plus, I myself am a Spirit voter, so I would like to know what the contenders are I should be keeping an eye out for, so I can be as informed a voter as I possibly can be. I would never have guessed Kumiko, The Treasure Hunter last year for Best Actress and certainly not Best Director, due to my not even having heard of it, yet look what happened! 😉

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    Teridax
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    #197702

    Oh, and by the way, I’m expecting Room, Diary of a Teenage Girl, and HOPEFULLY What We Do In The Shadows and Dope to clean up on nomination day.

    Seriously though guys, I feel like I NEED feedback as to what I should keep an eye out for. Should I check out I’ll See You In My Dreams w/ Blythe Danner? Or is it not that big an Awards contender & just overhyped?! I loved Grandma, is it similar to Dreams? PLEASE respond. 🙂

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    Alex Bustillos
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    #197703

    I can see them going for Room, Dope, I’ll See You In My Dreams and Grandma. Diary of a Teenage Girl too. Tangerine seems to be what the awards stand for and should reward these kind of films. (I’m just talking off my ass as I haven’t seen any of the films, btw. They just what I think from what I’ve read). It Follows could be there, though I don’t know how fond they are about genre movies.

    I’m usually off-put by some of the nominees or winners like Birdman, 12 Years a Slave or Silver Lining Playbooks as I don’t see them as being 100% indie films, so maybe something like The Danish Girl or The Revenant could sneak in.

    BTW, Steven Universe at the Globes? YES PLEASE! 😀  

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    AMG
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    #197704

    Is it just American Independent films that are eligible here?

    If it is, then Carol would appear to be an obvious huge hitter here. Doesn’t Spotlight count too?

    Of ones I’ve seen, I’d recommend Z for Zacariah, mainly for Margot Robbie as a contender for Best Actress. Thomas Mann for Best Actor in Me & Earl & The Dying Girl, Jason Segel for Supporting Actor in End of the Tour (and possibly Jesse Eisenberg for Best Actor in that film too).

    If Beasts of No Nation is eligible, the. Abraham Attah as Best Actor hands down! Idris Elba in Supporting. And if Youth is eligible, Michael Caine, Harvey Keitel and Rachel Weisz are great, and should get some awards love.

    The main independent films I’ve seen his year are British (45 Years, Brooklyn, Ex Machina, Legend, Slow West). If those are eligible for your vote, I would also seek out those too!

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    benutty
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    #197705

    Carol – feature
    Todd Haynes – director
    Cate Blanchett – lead
    Rooney Mara – supporting
    Phyllis Nagy – screenplay
    Edward Lachman – cinematography
    Affonso Goncalves – editing

    all winners. know that.
     

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    Teridax
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    #197706

    Wishful thinking Benutty, Rooney Mara perhaps, but don’t you think Brooklyn has more of a shot. Pete Hammond recently explained to Tom O’ Neil how much they have in common. I think Carol might do better in terms of nominations, but Brooklyn will do much better in terms of actual WINS, seeing as how much the Spirit Awards have been mirroring the Oscars lately. What if the Spirits put Rooney in LEAD INSTEAD OF SUPPORTING? Now that would be interesting…… 😉

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    benutty
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    #197707

    Wishful thinking Benutty

    Oh, indeed. 

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #197708

    I loved I’ll See You In My Dreams, and think both Blythe Danner and Sam Elliott are strong contenders. I actually preferred Martin Staller’s performance as Lloyd to Elliott’s as Bill. (Elliott will also be eligible for Grandma). (There is also the chance that they would give their Ensemble prize to I’ll See You In Dreams, which would make the actors ineligible in other categories; a rule I dislike intensely).

    They are always prone to giving nominations to obscure films that hardly anybody has ever seen, but giving their actual awards to the big Oscar contenders. I do wonder what their criteria is in terms of budget, and wonder if Spotlight will be eligible? My own feeling is that Spotlight costs too much and doesn’t feel at all like an “independent” film, but again, I don’t know what criteria they use…  The Danish Girl is a UK film and would only be eligible in the Foreign Film category; the same is true for Youth (primarily from Italy, actually) and many of the other films mentioned earlier in this thread… 

    Also: Rooney Mara and Jacob Tremblay would be nominated in the Female Lead and Male Lead categories by the Spirits.

    Room is a film from Ireland/Canada, so I am wondering if it’s being filmed in the U.S. will make it eligible? I wish I understood their rules! I HOPE Room is eligible, and wins for Film, Actor, Actress, Director, and Screenplay! (:

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    FilmGuy619
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    #197709

    My predictions for Best Actress:

    Cate Blanchett. Carol
    Brie Larson, Room
    Bel Powley, Diary Of A Teenage Girl
    Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back
    Kristen Wiig, Welcome To Me

    I might also predict/hope that Ex Machina gets in for Best Foreign Film since it is a UK production and will likely be eligible there. 

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    Teridax
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    #197710

    Those are pretty solid predictions FilmGuy619, but if you had to pick one, which one is the most vulnerable to getting snubbed AND WHY? 😉 Who do you think could play spoiler? And please correct me if I’m wrong, but is Brooklyn eligible here?

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    Sasha
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    #197711

    I’d absolutely love if ISA also said big fuck you to category frauds (like it’s British equivalent BIFA) and nominated Mara and Tremblay in leading. But they’ve become currupted in recent years awarding Oscar hopefuls instead of true indie creators, directos, actors, etc. UGH!

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    benutty
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    #197712

    And please correct me if I’m wrong, but is Brooklyn eligible here?

    Unlikely.

    It meets the budget guidelines, but it isn’t principally American. The director is Irish and the writer is English. Two of these three things must be primarily American to qualify: director, writer, producer.

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    benutty
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    #197713

    Room won’t qualify, right?

    Everything I’m seeing suggests that it’s a mostly Irish production–Irish-Canadian writer, Irish director……

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    Teridax
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    #197714

    I know what you mean Sasha. The reason I voted for Whiplash last year in so many categories was becuase I wanted the Spirit winner to be different. But also because it was the best  picture of the 5 nominees and it esp. because it felt more like a real “independent film” than the Brad Pitt AND freaking Oprah Winfrey-produced Selma, Birdman (my personal 2nd favorite), and of course Boyhood. I don’t know why or how Love is Strange got nominated over the infinitely superior Nightcrawler, The Guest, and The One I Love w/ Elizabeth Moss! All I know is it saved me from having to decide between Whiplash & Nightcrawler for Best Picture, a monumental task considering they were my 2nd and 3rd FAVORITE MOVIES OF THE ENTIRE YEAR OF 2014, RESPECTIVELY! A decent film, very Strange to have it as a Best Picture nominee though. 😉

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    FilmGuy619
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    #197715

    Those are pretty solid predictions FilmGuy619, but if you had to pick one, which one is the most vulnerable to getting snubbed AND WHY? 😉 Who do you think could play spoiler? And please correct me if I’m wrong, but is Brooklyn eligible here?

    If one of those actresses were snubbed, I’d say Sarah Silverman. She was snubbed by the Gotham Awards and hopefully, for her sake, she won’t be snubbed here. But the potential spoiler might be either Olivia Wilde for Meadowland, Blythe Danner for I’ll See You In My Dreams, Lily Tomlin for Grandma, or Kitana Kiki Rodriguez for Tangerine. What a year for actresses, though. Wow! 

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