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2018 Oscar Nominee Predictions: Part 8

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  • Andrew Carden
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    I have Darkest Hour down in 11th in Best Picture.

    For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis, please visit me at The Awards Connection!

    TheRedBoy
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    I think I, Tonya is definitely in the Best Picture lineup now. At the very least, I’d put it ahead of The Post.

    Three Billboards
    The Shape of Water
    Lady Bird
    Get Out
    Dunkirk
    Call Me By Your Name
    I, Tonya

    The remaining 3 slots are very difficult:
    The Florida Project
    The Post
    The Disaster Artist
    The Big Sick
    Darkest Hour
    Mudbound

    And I have a gut feeling that Molly’s Game and a blockbuster (Wonder Woman, Coco, Star Wars, or Beauty and the Beast) are getting in as well.

    TheRedBoy
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    I was going through my predictions and removed Darkest Hour from BP. Then, I googled previous nominees and winners and the last time the Drama Actor winner was from a movie not nominated for BP was in 2009. I’m saying this because people aren’t very convinced in Darkest Hour making it for Best Picture. In the combined odds, it’s #9, which might not be that bad. I’d like to hear other thoughts on this.

    It’s also worth noting that only 3 men have won Lead Actor on their second Oscar nomination in the past 18 years.

    Russell Crowe and Colin Firth, whose films also won Best Picture, and Casey Affleck, whose film was likely second or third in the BP race.

    Oldman’s win would be very Whitaker-like, I think. Career win, swept precursors, no BP nomination.

    Tyler [Last Name]
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    If The Disaster Artist gets in for Best Picture, I want Tommy Wiseau to present the film for Best Picture.

    FYC: Ready Player One. Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects, Original Score, Production Design, Director and BEST PICTURE (make it happen Oscars!!)

    TheRedBoy
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    #1202466522

    At 13 of the past 18 ceremonies, at least one of the two Lead Role awards went to a first time nominee. Only once (Witherspoon/PS Hoffman) did both go to first-time nominees.

    6 of the 7 men who won on their first nomination were in Best Picture nominees (P S Hoffman, Dujardin, Redmayne, Brody, Foxx, McConaughey).

    1 of the 7 women who won on their first nomination was in a Best Picture nominee (Larson).

    FreemanGriffin
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    #1202466529

    There is a strong possibility that all 5 Best Actress nominees will be in BP nominees; I don’t think that will happen at all for Best Actor this year, although if there are big surprises it could.

    kbfr12
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    If The Disaster Artist gets in for Best Picture, I want Tommy Wiseau to present the film for Best Picture.

    He would talk for 45 minutes and never introduce the clip package.

    kingfan011
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    #1202466540

    Boy Phantom Thread really went nowhere. Maybe they should have held til this year and premiered it Cannes. Just completely dropped out of the conversation.

    I’m still annoyed the exceptional and best film of the year Hostiles seem to vanish and do nothing.

    FreemanGriffin
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    I saw Phantom Thread. The MVP is Lesley Manville and it would be a really pleasant surprise if she were to get into the Oscar nominations. I was very meh about the movie as a whole; very slow and sometimes dull. I also didn’t like the character Daniel Day-Lewis plays very much. It’s a solid competent performance but I didn’t really care about it or his character. I would be disappointed if it were to get a Best Original Screenplay nomination over so many deserving nominees (however, if it were to replace Three Billboards and/or Get Out I would be very happy with it, but I know that won’t happen). Grade: B-

    I really want the pleasant surprise on the 23rd of seeing Jake Gyllenhaal nominated for Stronger. I find it extremely disappointing that he isn’t one of the front-runners. he is superb and so richly deserves to be nominated (again – he keeps on coming in 6th or 7th).

    kingfan011
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    I saw Phantom Thread. The MVP is Lesley Manville and it would be a really pleasant surprise if she were to get into the Oscar nominations. I was very meh about the movie as a whole; very slow and sometimes dull. I also didn’t like the character Daniel Day-Lewis plays very much. It’s a solid competent performance but I didn’t really care about it or his character. I would be disappointed if it were to get a Best Original Screenplay nomination over so many deserving nominees (however, if it were to replace Three Billboards and/or Get Out I would be very happy with it, but I know that won’t happen). Grade: B- I really want the pleasant surprise on the 23rd of seeing Jake Gyllenhaal nominated for Stronger. I find it extremely disappointing that he isn’t one of the front-runners. he is superb and so richly deserves to be nominated (again – he keeps on coming in 6th or 7th).

     

    Oh I agree. I mean I hated Phantom Thread. I thought like Anderson’s recent films its very boring and pretty much empty. I think its ridiculous that Day Lewis will most likely get nominated instead of Gyllenhal and even Christian Bale in Hostiles was better

    • This reply was modified 3 months, 1 week ago by  kingfan011.
    Riley
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    I’m honestly contemplating if Abbie Cornish shocks with a nomination.

    Why do you do this to yourself?

    J H
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    #1202466692

    i hope cornish gets in and harrelson does not, just cuz.

    Honey
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    #1202466714

    I’m honestly contemplating if Abbie Cornish shocks with a nomination.

    Paul Hardister
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    I agree with TheRedBoy. I feel pretty confident I, Tonya gets a Best Picture nomination. It has as many guild nominations as Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird and Three Billboards. Only The Shape of Water has more guild nominations than all the rest.

    At the Gotham Awards, I, Tonya actually got a Best Feature Film nomination and Lady Bird did not. So I think I, Tonya is safe. I’ll be thrilled to hear them call it out on nomination morning because I grabbed it while it was still at 100/1.

    Hunter-ish
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    #1202466778

    I’m honestly contemplating if Abbie Cornish shocks with a nomination.

    Why do you do this to yourself?

    Ben Mendelsohn was very good with limited material and he remains in my predictions

    Why do you do this to yourself?

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