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November 4, 2017 at 9:48 am #1202401831
Detroit is garbage and likely to be entirely MIA this awards season. I do, however, think The Disaster Artist has a chance here.
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You say Detroit is garbage yet you gave it a B-. To me, garbage films get grades of D or F, not B-.November 4, 2017 at 10:00 am #1202401838
My thoughts would be:
1. The Post
2. Call Me By Your Name
3. The Shape of Water
4. Three Billboards
5. Darkest HourNovember 4, 2017 at 10:27 am #1202401852
Disaster Artist would have had a better chance in a weaker year. Detroit is DOA.November 14, 2017 at 1:30 pm #1202410499
Shape of water
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Does anyone see a chance for The Disaster Artist? It’s not in the predictions center and no one’s mentioned it in this forum, but it’s a huge cast, it’s about the making of a movie (albeit an infamously terrible one), and James Franco is seemingly gaining traction in the best actor race. I think it could stand a decent chance as the surprise nominee.
I agree. Plus, it’s a movie about acting. SAG of all places should eat it up. Plus, SAG seems more comedy friendly. They also have one or two picks that are really out there and do not show up big at the Oscars.December 4, 2017 at 12:35 am #1202428786
it looks like the sag ensemble nominations are really going to help support our oscar best picture predictions. Here are my updated predictions:
– The Post
– Three Billboards Outside Missouri
– The Shape of Water
Fighting for the last slot:
– Call Me By Your Name
– Lady Bird
– Darkest HourDecember 4, 2017 at 12:54 am #1202428798
The Post is a lock despite visibility issues? The Shape of Water is likely despite almost consistently under-performing? NBR winner Get Out is not a factor? I agree though that the nominations will be telling because big snubs are guaranteed.December 4, 2017 at 2:04 am #1202428822
I am currently predicting the following for SAG Ensemble
1. Get Out
You don’t win so many ensemble awards and be one of the most critically acclaimed box office successes of the year and miss out for SAG ensemble. This is an easy prediction to make.
2. Call Me By Your Name
I am predicting it to get 3 actors nominated. How can it miss SAG Ensemble after that?
Even Beasts of No Nation got nominated here. So I can’t fathom how Mudbound misses out, despite being more acclaimed and truly being a ensemble film. It might not be a factor anywhere else, but being on Netflix doesn’t hurt it with SAG in any way.
4. The Post.
This is a gamble because it’s late showing may affect it here. But it’s difficult to not predict it when it’s getting a good reception from those who have seen it and when it features an ensemble of Streep, Hanks, Odernkirk, Cook and Paulson.
5. The Florida Project.
Because I honestly think it’ll get in before either The Shape of Water or Lady Bird. The latter may replace it though.December 4, 2017 at 2:11 am #1202428828
This is so obvious it hurts.
2 Get Out
People are criminally underestimating its chances. There may not be many household names in the film but it is a sizzling-hot, zeitgeist-cutting best picture contender with a huge ensemble of actors stealing scenes from each other in deliciously meaty roles.
3 The Post
There has to be one old-school Oscar bait in the mix and this one is ticking all the boxes. I imagine Darkest Hour is more literally an ensemble effort but The Post is buzzier and better received.
4 Lady Bird
Another trending indie darling of the moment, starring both a best actress frontrunner and a best supporting actress frontrunner, not to mention a best actor frontrunner in a supporting turn.
5 The Shape of Water
It’s as close to an all-star ensemble cast as any of the best picture contenders come.
Three Billboards or Mudbound could easily be in instead of TSOW but there’s just no room for Three Billboards, Phantom Thread or Dunkirk, and The Florida Project might be hurt by the fact it only has one actual movie star in it.December 4, 2017 at 3:03 am #1202428850
My predictions for Ensemble are like this:
The Post – I can’t see this missing at all.
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – It has a great cast and all of them put the work in. Though NBR snub is making me reconsider this.
The Florida Project – They LOVE children. And it reminds me of Captain Fantastic with Dafoe being the sole acting nominee a la Mortensen.
Murder On the Orient Express – Huge cast with so many past Oscar winners/nominees AND this year’s contenders. Also, I wanted to predict a “WTF?” nominee.
The Shape of Water – It is a placeholder because The Disaster Artist is not in the center.December 4, 2017 at 4:40 am #1202428876
Call Me By Your Name
The Florida Project
The Shape of Water
alt: The PostDecember 4, 2017 at 5:17 am #1202428910
Y’all are predicting CMBYN and TSOW and Murder on the fucking Orient Express before Three Billboards?December 4, 2017 at 5:21 am #1202428916
Y’all are predicting CMBYN and TSOW and Murder on the fucking Orient Express before Three Billboards?
If CMBYN gets in with such a small cast of mostly unknown actors (I don’t think it will) then WE KNOW it could realistically win Best Picture at the Oscars, period.December 4, 2017 at 6:24 am #1202428970
The Post – i mean come on , if this misses this Award it wont win any big Oscars
Lady Bird- Fantastic Cast
Three Billboards – again fantastic cast
from here it gets a bit murky
CMBYN – is getting tons of love but its basically three people
Mudbound – great cast .. doesnt seem to be getting a bunch of love so far
Dunkirk – Great cast but i just dont see it getting this nomination
Murder on the Orient express- the cast is brilliant … no denying that
Get out- Great cast , good solid buzz and continues to pick up wins … i think this gets in
SOW- AMAZING cast … but it hasnt had too many nominations lately …
Disaster Artist – James seems to be making headway with this quirky film with a strong cast.
Florida Project – IDK … this movie is winning alot more critics awards than i ever thought it would
Phantom Thread- I dont think this gets in for same reasons im worried about cmbyn
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