January 18, 2014 at 1:06 am #134772
I have realised that there is a high chance 5 of the 9 best picture nominees may leave the Dolby Theatre totally empty-handed : Captain Phillips, Her, Nebraska, Philomena and The Wolf of Wall Street. That’s 56% of the whole list, an unusual percentage in comparison to past years and a whopping 45% higher than last year when only 1 movie was totally ignored. And 4 of them stand with 5 or more nominations (Phillips, Her, Nebraska, Wolf), when at the most it has been 2 movies. This is, a full 100% higher.
Since the best picture field was expanded, we have had:
A Serious Man
Up in the Air
40%. Only 1 picture to have scored 5+ nods.
The Kids Are Alright
40%. 2 movies with 5+ nods.
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Tree of Life
44%. 2 movies with 5+ nods.
Beasts of the Southern Wild
11%. No movies with 5+ nods.
Do you think this will indeed end up like this or academy members may think
that is a very elevated number and may consider to reward at least one of the 5 somewhere? Which of the 5 do you think stands a
realistic chance of winning at least 1 of it’s nominations?January 18, 2014 at 5:54 am #134774
Some movies should be on the list of possible shut outs
Philomena – lock.
Captain Phillips – lock (thanks to Gravity).
Her – near lock (hopefully takes Screenplay, some say Score is within reach).
Nebraska – very possible if Dern, their only hope for a win, looses.
The Wolf of Wall Street – veeery possible to be shut out, with a shocking Screenplay win over 12 Years a Slave.
Nobody will agree, but common…
12 Years a Slave – best hope is definitely screenplay, but the movie has problems everywhere else. This is not the film that wins Costume, Production Design, nobody but Gravity wins Editing, Fassbender is out, Ejiofor might be out, Nyong’o has things to worry about although I believe she’s the frontrunner and then there’s Picture/Director, where Director might already be Cuaron’s. So what does it win?
American Hustle – it could happen. They don’t have even one of the craft categories locked, Costume is their best hope, Gravity takes Editing, they won’t win Production Design, Cooper, Bale and Adams are out, they could loose Screenplay (not likely at all) to Her, and I can’t seem to get on board with it winning Picture/Director. And then there’s Lawrence who could end up, yet again for Russell’s film, its only win.
Dallas is safe thanks to Leto and Gravity is safe thanks to crafts.January 18, 2014 at 7:07 am #134775
Can somebody tell me why Gravity is going to get editing? There weren’t even that many cuts. Is it just because it has good pacing? I don’t think it deserves it.January 18, 2014 at 7:28 am #134776
Wolf of Wall Street should win editing. Oh wait….
If Gravity loses, Captain Phillips could swoop in here.January 18, 2014 at 8:07 am #134777
Yeah I’d give editing to WOWS. Just like in ’10 when Inception was the best.January 18, 2014 at 8:28 am #134778
Can somebody tell me why Gravity is going to get editing? There weren’t even that many cuts. Is it just because it has good pacing? I don’t think it deserves it.
Intricate editing of merging different shots to give the impression of one continuous sequence hardly means “only good pacing”, especially when you have such tighly coreoghraphed camera movements and actions.January 18, 2014 at 8:50 am #134779
Right now the only films I can see going home empty handed are Captain Phillips, Philomena, and Nebraska.January 18, 2014 at 9:35 am #134780
It’s not in my top slot, but I could feasibly imagine Philomena taking Score. While it is a bit more subdued than some of the other nominees (as is typical for Desplat scores), the film clearly has some passionate support. If people don’t want to see Blanchett lose Actress, I could imagine a scenario where they throw votes there just to give it something. Again, not the likeliest of scenarios, but it wouldn’t be the biggest shock to happen in that category.January 18, 2014 at 9:45 am #134781
Nebraska is competitive in actor (co-favorite), supporting actress (real shot), orig screenplay (if close race b/w AH and Her, has a real shot), cinematogaphy (2nd position)
it could go home with none, but I think 50% chance or better it wins something, but of course GD remains myopic about this film, and will continue despite it having overperformed every step of the wayJanuary 18, 2014 at 10:01 am #134782
^ I could say many things about that.January 18, 2014 at 10:30 am #134783
The only film I feel reasonably sure that it will lose everything is Captain Phillips. It’s hurt by the rise of Leto, and that Gravity is nominated in every craft category it’s in. It’s best chance at a win is surprising in either Adapted Screenplay or Editing.
While I’m not predicting it, I wouldn’t put it past the academy to give Adapted Screenplay to Philomena. I see that as being a film most assume will lose everything, but not so fast, as it is competitive in most categories, especially in Adapted Screenplay. If 12 Years is too divisive, and Wolf too young-skewing, Philomena could actually be the compromise that wins.January 18, 2014 at 10:33 am #134784
Demon et al – I learned a long time ago that if I found that I consistantly underestimated something or someone, at some point I need to adjust my thinking and not continue to do so. It appears here that few people have adjusted to how Nebraska has done better every step of the way – Cannes, reviews, critics groups awards, GGs noms, BAFTA noms, guild noms and now Oscar noms. Is it that hard to accept that maybe, just maybe, that this constitutes a trend that might continue?
The Academy of all groups/venues this year is the best for this film. It is possible that it might be the best liked film in the consensus view of all the BP nominees. It probably won’t win BP because of its weak audience response, which is a legitimate factor in analyzing chances for BP (although in a close year with preferential voting it might still lurk as a BP win contender, since it might have the most votes in the top 3).
So say all you want, but I need to hear some reasons why those who have been wrong every step of the way still feel secure in dismissing its chances. As the saying goes, those who don’t learn from their mistakes are certain to make them in the future.January 18, 2014 at 10:37 am #134785
I still think Abdi could take supporting actor. I’m not buying the Leto lock thing, although obviously he is in the lead. I realize Greengrass didn’t get in, but failure (likely close) in a branch that is about 5% of the Academy doesn’t say much about the overall respect for the film. Obviously DBC’s strong showing (also no director though) and Leto’s wins help him, but it’s a long way til Academy members vote.
It would be a surprise, but DBC is another film that has a chance of going home emptyhanded, though surely less than some others noted here (and yes, I’ll include Nebraska as slightly more likely).January 18, 2014 at 10:47 am #134786
Nebraska’s only real chances of winning I think are Actor and Screenplay. The film overperformed, but Squibb is gonna fall behind her younger competition unless she surprises and wins SAG. Director seems like a stretch with no DGA nom. Editing is probably not gonna happen either with the impressive skill that it took to edit Gravity and Captain Phillips being the hand-held rapid fire editing they have liked in the past here. Maybe cinematography, but black and white rarely wins here, and there are more obvious choices, either in terms of technical skill (Gravity), name (Inside Llewyn Davis, Prisoners), or simply having that lush gorgeous epic look they like (The Grandmaster). Cinematography is not an easy category to quantify this year: it could be anywhere between second and fifth.
So Actor and Screenplay, best shots, and it might lose both. I don’t think it’s a lock to lose everything, but the possibility is very real in a competitive year.
And before saying “but you’re biased against Payne!”, need I remind you that being a great film with lots of nominations never stopped a film from coming out of the Oscars with no wins. The Insider was the best film of the line-up that year, and lost every single category it was nominated for, even though it deserved some of them. But it lost because it was a competitive year and was facing BP frontrunners in most of its categories.January 18, 2014 at 10:49 am #134787
I don’t see how Nebraska persistently “overperforming”. After seeing it, it’s fit and logical and unshocking that it got all the nods that it got.
It’s the perfect film for AMPAS to recognize, but going all the way? I don’t think so.
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