January 19, 2013 at 11:28 pm #87792
Our good pal, frequent contributor and one of the pro pundits participating in our predic charts, Tariq Kahn has shown amazing clairvoyance through the years when forecasting Oscar champs, particularly the longshots. Last year he came in first place among the 30 pro Oscarologists we had predicting all 24 races, tying Pete Hammond.
This year he predicts Emmanuelle Riva will WIN Best Actress. Here is his argument. Is he nuts?January 19, 2013 at 11:36 pm #87794
He certainly makes a decent enough argument.
Not to sound like some rebellious fourteen year old, but I am less inclined to believe someone’s rationale when their strongest argument seems to be: “because I said so.”
But I suppose yes, she could potentially win.
January 20, 2013 at 12:26 am #87795
This is great. It’s basically what I’ve been saying since November.
And he didn’t even mention the BAFTA factor.January 20, 2013 at 12:38 am #87796
I agree with Khan. Not such a long shot anymore.January 20, 2013 at 1:00 am #87797
I’m definitely on board the Riva train because her performance IS the best of any actress and deserves to win. I just wish Ms. Riva went to America to do a talk show or showed even the tiniest bit of desire to win that Oscar.January 20, 2013 at 1:05 am #87798
Riva is in her mid 80’s. She would be flattered to win, of course, but I cannot imagine her giving a damn about some Hollywood award. She is a tried and true actor, not a movie star.
After next weekend, I think it will be a Chastain/Riva race to the finish line.January 20, 2013 at 2:52 am #87799
Because she’s the best BY FAR!!!
Obviously the best performances don’t always win but in a divided field with no other true stand out performances, I find it hard to believe anyone could see Riva and make a rational decision that she doesn’t deserve it.January 20, 2013 at 3:34 am #87800
Tom, if I were you, I would start to predict Riva because I’m sure you don’t want to look fool on Oscar night. The girl is gonna win it. They just need to watch screeners and then there’s no contest. Riva pwns everyone.January 20, 2013 at 4:58 am #87801
I think Riva will receive most of her votes from the European members of the Academy, which will hopefully help her with getting ahead of Lawrence & Chastain. She is also bound to recieve some American votes.
And surely anyone who has seen Hirsohima mon amour, one of the cornerstones of world cinema, and loves/admires the film would find it hard to resist voting for her in Amour.
To think she made Hiroshima mon amour (and a number of other notable films) before any of her fellow nominees were even born. And given her age she is very unlikely to land a role a great as Anne in Amour.
I can’t think of any other actor/actress who has bookend their cinema career like Emmanuelle Riva has.January 20, 2013 at 5:12 am #87802
In a year when the best actress prize should be cancelled,
RIVA has a great shot for a few reasons…To me, the best
reason is that she is also in a Best Picture nominated film.
She has her director and screenplay nominated as well which
sometimes helps the academy select…Giving an 85 year old
great french actress the oscar certainly doesnt hurt any of the
other four contenders careers.
LAWRENCE might be too young and off the cuff…
CHASTAIN needs a better starring role.
WATTS needs a better film altogether.
WALLIS isnt the threat i once thought she was although
I still expect most african american members of
the academy to vote for her..
If Riva wins, it would be nice for her to attend and for last
years best actor winner Jean Dujardin to present the oscar
Having said all this, right now my pick is Lawrence because
of the HARVEY FACTOR….. he knows how to get oscars
for his women…as proven over the last few years….Django will
win nothing and SLP needs a credible oscar… i think its with
Lawrence at the moment..
to herJanuary 20, 2013 at 5:28 am #87803
I really hope we have a repeat of Los Angeles; with both Madame Emmanuelle and Jennifer tying for the win.January 20, 2013 at 6:22 am #87804
Like I said earlier, I would be shocked if she doesn’t win on Oscar night. It’s good she’s not nommed for globes and SAG. Once BAFTA is over (with Riva and surefire winner), Chastain and Lswrence can kiss their Oscar goodbye. No voter who has seen Amour would not tick Riva on their ballot. She outclassed all her nominees. My mother died of a stroke and dementia last year, and Riva iwas so convincing in her portrayal it haunted me for weeks.January 20, 2013 at 6:54 am #87805
Césars are given out on Friday February 22, so Emmanuelle can fly to L.A. on Saturday and attend Oscars on Sunday.January 20, 2013 at 6:55 am #87806
If Emmanuelle Riva wins BEST ACTRESS, it will be the single most deserved Oscar winner of the night.January 20, 2013 at 7:09 am #87807
I hope 4 other threads are going to be started that highlight 5 reasons the other nominees can and will win.
But to respond to the post, no one should be counting Riva out. This is not a two-horse race btwn Jen and Jess. Nor is it a three-horse race, adding Riva. Wallis could also pull off an upset. Watts is the only one that should be counted out.