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89TH ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS – Winners Predictions

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  • eastwest
    Participant
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    Jun 6th, 2011
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    #1202020083

    Best Picture
    La La Land

    Actor in a Leading Role
    Denzel Washington – Fences

    Actor in a Supporting Role
    Mahershala Ali – Moonlight

    Actress in a Leading Role
    Emma Stone – La La Land

    Actress in a Supporting Role
    Viola Davis – Fences

    Animated Feature Film
    Zootopia

    Cinematography
    Linus Sandgren – La La Land

    Costume Design
    Mary Zophres – La La Land

    Directing
    Damien Chazelle – La La Land

    Documentary (Feature)
    O.J.: Made In America

    Documentary (Short Subject)
    The White Helmets

    Film Editing
    Tom Cross – La La Land

    Foreign Language Film
    The Salesman (Iran)

    Makeup and Hairstyling
    Star Trek Beyond

    Music (Original Score)
    Justin Hurwitz – La La Land

    Music (Original Song)
    Justin Hurwitz, Benj Pasek and Justin Paul – “City Of Stars” from La La Land

    Production Design
    La La Land

    Short Film (Animated)
    Piper

    Short Film (Live Action)
    La Femme et le TGV

    Sound Editing
    La La Land

    Sound Mixing
    La La Land

    Visual Effects
    The Jungle Book

    Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
    Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney – Moonlight

    Writing (Original Screenplay)
    Damien Chazelle – La La Land

    Reply
    janbryan
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    #1202020102

    There’s an existing thread like this. Head over to http://www.goldderby.com/forum/movies/your-choice-for-winners-in-all-24-categories/

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    Ryan Lapierre
    Participant
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    Dec 15th, 2013
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    #1202020116

    Best Picture
    La La Land

    Actor in a Leading Role
    Casey Affleck

    Actor in a Supporting Role
    Mahershala Ali

    Actress in a Leading Role
    Emma Stone

    Actress in a Supporting Role
    Viola Davis

    Animated Feature Film
    Zootopia

    Cinematography
    La La Land

    Costume Design
    La La Land

    Directing
    Damien Chazelle

    Documentary (Feature)
    O.J.: Made In America

    Documentary (Short Subject)
    Joe’s Violin

    Film Editing
    La La Land

    Foreign Language Film
    The Salesman

    Makeup and Hairstyling
    Star Trek Beyond

    Music (Original Score)
    La La Land

    Music (Original Song)
    City Of Stars

    Production Design
    La La Land

    Short Film (Animated)
    Piper

    Short Film (Live Action)
    Sing

    Sound Editing
    Hacksaw Ridge

    Sound Mixing
    La La Land

    Visual Effects
    The Jungle Book

    Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
    Moonlight

    Writing (Original Screenplay)
    La La Land

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    eastwest
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    Jun 6th, 2011
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    #1202020124

    Not the same. That’s more of a “If I were a Oscar voter, these are my picks”. This is a place for final predictions.

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    Jason Travis
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    #1202021565

    FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS
    with commentary

    BEST PICTURE
    La La Land

    This should win it in a landslide, but with the slight backlash don’t be too surprised if Moonlight sneaks in ala Spotlight style. The one detractor Chazelle’s film suffers from is it was snubbed for the SAG Ensemble. Many claim “but it only has two characters.” When I went to see the film in the theater, I was like “Um, no.” There are MANY characters in La La Land, starting with John Legend and J.K. Simmons for starters. All of Mia’s roommates. *Spoiler —- her husband at the end*. While some may be minor roles, they are nonetheless visible and have lines. It should have easily been an Ensemble nominee, and it failed. The last movie to win best picture without a SAG Ensemble nod was Braveheart way back in 1995.

    What stops me from putting Moonlight in is that it failed to win the SAG for Best Ensemble; instead, the voting body went with Hidden Figures. Which while a great box-office crowd pleaser, has nothing on Jenkins movie. So to me, that indicates the support isn’t quite there. Plus La La Land DID win the PGA, which is weighed on preferential balloting like the Oscars. 14 nominations means we’re seeing the first musical since Chicago take it home.

    BEST DIRECTOR
    Damien Chazelle, La La Land

    Totally worthy. Jenkins would also be an inspired win, but this is an easy call. DGA rules.

    BEST ACTOR
    Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

    The hardest decision for me. Washington won the SAG, which is a big deal. But he has won nothing else. When was the last time an actor won only this and nothing else, and then took home the gold? Washington is the bigger star. More likable. Has bigger scenes. Isn’t involved in controversy. Will join the ranks of Nicholson, Day-Lewis, Streep for the big 3 club. But something just isn’t weighing right in my brain for his win. His BAFTA snub for one (and yes, they never have nominated him). Some claim “Well since Washington also directed Fences, he’ll get the director’s on his side.” If that was the case, Kevin Costner and Clint Eastwood would have won best actor for the films they helmed. And Washington wasn’t even a directing nominee.

    Affleck really is the frontrunner. What’s stopping him is his lack of “enthusiasm” and presence during the awards season. And those allegations with women on set. Will voters care that much? This never stopped Allen or Polanski. MoNique hated campaigning, and she still won. The performance speaks for itself. The only thing that pauses me here is that recently, Tommy Lee Jones made a grumpy face at the Globes when he lost for Lincoln, and the internet and Twitter had a field day. So did social media cost him? And will it cost Affleck? Flip a coin.

    BEST ACTRESS
    Emma Stone, La La Land

    She’s the heart and soul of her film, and she shines in every aspect. People saying it’s lightweight were not paying attention. Stone is a unique actor, and I really found more respect for her as a performer after viewing this. Isabelle Huppert is a threat, but no SAG nomination means no support from the actors. We’ve seen this happen too many times (eg Emmanuelle Riva).

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
    Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

    It’s been a back and forth battle here too. Dev Patel was originally my thought after BAFTA, but truly Ali has been poised to take this since November. His SAG win and that speech really brought it home. His presence exists throughout the entire duration of the film, and it’s a haunting role. Patel suffers from being young too and they don’t like ’em young in the male categories. But Lion is growing stronger with each passing day, and Patel is louder in his movie. Does louder = winner? It didn’t with Rylance last year, and like Rylance, Ali is a respected theater presence.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    Viola Davis, Fences

    Has this category had an upset at all recently? Usually this is the easiest one to choose. Not since probably Swinton has there been any tension (I never bought into Lawrence and the awful American Hustle). Davis deserves this, and it’s really her best work to date. I hope to see more from her in the future.

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
    Moonlight, Barry Jenkins

    Any film that can win the Original Screenplay award at WGA when Manchester by the Sea was the supposed “favorite” has the passion and support. This is also where voters can reward Jenkins. Moonlight sets itself up for a spoiler in best picture here too; usually Best Picture winners as of recent win just a few prizes. And writing is one of them.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
    La La Land, Damien Chazelle

    It’s a close call folks, but Lonergan’s film seems to be fading into the background. Despite my Affleck prediction, I think Chazelle pulls a Birdman and wins both writing and directing honors for his masterpiece. Sure, a musical hasn’t won this one in a long long time but molds are being broken every year.

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
    La La Land

    It’s aesthetic, bright and sweeping. Lion or Arrival could take it here, but this is where the sweep effect will start happening (or not) for Chazelle’s film.

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
    La La Land

    Why are people picking Arrival? It’s scarce in it’s design, and it’s rare sci-fi wins this unless the design really pops (eg Avatar).

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN
    La La Land

    Contemporary pieces don’t win this, but I don’t really count La La Land as contemporary in that regard; it really mixes modern day atmosphere with imagination and fantasy. Stone’s costumes alone change with her maturity and it’s recent win at the Costume Guilds seals it for me. That and Jackie lost to Hidden Figures (!!!) which isn’t even on the ballot. Does that spell doom for Portman’s movie just not being that popular? Florence Foster Jenkins could also spoil.

    BEST SOUND MIXING
    La La Land

    It’s a musical, they do well here. And watching it 7.1 surround, I realized how important it was to see this on the big screen. The sound makes a difference. Arrival and Hacksaw Ridge are the potential spoilers here, and voters have options. But remember last year when The Martian lost these categories to Mad Max? Oh and The Revenant too.

    BEST SOUND EDITING
    La La Land

    This is the wildcard pick for me here. And yeah it sounds insane right? Because no musical has ever won this award before. But has a musical even been nominated here before? Voters REALLY like this movie, and appreciated it’s technical vision. When movies are nominated in both Sound AND Sound Editing, they usually will win both. Unless there’s a strong consensus. But while Hacksaw Ridge, the default choice, seems logical (since war films fare well here), I think voters can’t differentiate the difference between Sound and Sound Editing and therefore are going to name check Chazelle’s film twice. Sasha at Awards Daily and some others are vying that Arrival wins, and I am very tempted because again- this award usually goes in 2s now. Because the entire voting body votes, not the branches. I’m going way out on a limb. But since many are saying La La Land is taking Sound Mixing, and it’s nodded in Sound Editing- the 2 rule applies. Right?

    BEST FILM EDITING
    La La Land

    The last 10 minutes alone make this worthy. It’s gonna sweep folks.

    BEST MAKEUP
    Star Trek

    Star Trek has won this before, so it’s the easiest to place. I think the Squad makeup looks similar to the themes of Mad Max last year, and I don’t know any voter that will think A Man Called Ove is worthy. But this category (like many years now) is a big dud. I’ll go with the consensus. But I am not at all confident.

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
    Kubo and the Two Strings

    The smart money seems to be on Zootopia, but I am betting the farm that the recent BAFTA win and passion for my pick will help it soar to the top. It’s Visual Effects nomination also shows voters were thinking outside the box and really liked this film.

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
    The Jungle Book

    Blah. Another category where we really are throwing darts in the dark. Could <i>Rogue One</i> surprise? I’m going with the consensus on this one because I have no idea.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
    La La Land

    The best score in years. I bought the soundtrack for only $6.99 on iTunes the same day I saw the film. A love letter to any musical fan.

    BEST SONG
    “City of Stars”, La La Land

    A split with “Audition” could happen, but really that song shouldn’t even be nominated (even though the scene is powerful) . “A Lovely Night” is just splendid.

    BEST FOREIGN FILM
    The Salesman

    We’re all drifting on different paths here, but personal stories often help especially if the entire academy now is allowed to vote.

    BEST DOC FEATURE
    OJ: Made in America

    There’s a lot of OJ going around these days, and not just in theaters. So I think this is the easy name check for the awards body.

    BEST DOC SHORT
    Extremis

    No idea, I keep switching. East/West is a very good predictor and he has The White Helmets here. Hmmm…I think I’ll go with the one dealing with life and death. We all relate to that.

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT
    Piper

    No Pixar film has won this in a while, but it’s very simplistic and like Bear Story last year (which I correctly predicted), voters warm to stuff like this.

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
    La Femme et le TGV

    It’s a mind fuck lol. I have no clue, I’ve switched this a dozen times. Last year I got Stutterer right because it was relatable, simple storytelling. I’ll go with east/west on this one. A love story. Relatable.

    Just realized I also have La La Land winning 12 Oscars- which will be a record. But hey, history has to happen some time right?

    Follow Me on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/jasonmovieguy
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    Tyler The Awesome Guy
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    Nov 19th, 2011
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    #1202021595

    Best Picture: LA LA LAND
    Best Director: DAMIEN CHAZELLE
    Best Actor: DENZEL WASHINGTON
    Best Actress: EMMA STONE
    Best Sup. Actor: MAHERSHALA ALI
    Best Sup. Actress: VIOLA DAVIS
    Best Original Screenplay: MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
    Best Adapted Screenplay: MOONLIGHT
    Best Foreign Language Film: A MAN CALLED OVE
    Best Documentary Feature: 13TH
    Best Original Score: LA LA LAND
    Best Original Song: “CITY OF STARS”
    Best Sound Editing: HACKSAW RIDGE
    Best Sound Mixing: LA LA LAND
    Best Animated Feature: ZOOTOPIA
    Best Cinematography: LA LA LAND
    Best Makeup and Hair: A MAN CALLED OVE
    Best Production Design: LA LA LAND
    Best Costume Design: LA LA LAND
    Best Film Editing: LA LA LAND
    Best Visual Effects: THE JUNGLE BOOK

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    wigo
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    Apr 7th, 2015
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    #1202021634

    Best Picture
    > La La Land: Globe(Musical), BAFTA
    > Moonlight: Globe(Drama)

    Actor in a Leading Role
    > Fences: SAG
    > La La Land: Globe(Musical)
    > Manchester by the Sea: Globe(Drama), BAFTA

    Actress in a Leading Role
    > Elle: Globe(Drama)
    > La La Land: Globe(Musical), SAG, BAFTA

    Actor in a Supporting Role
    > Lion: BAFTA
    > Moonlight: SAG
    > Nocturnal Animals: Globe

    Actress in a Supporting Role
    > Fences: Globe, SAG, BAFTA

    Directing
    > La La Land: Globe, DGA, BAFTA

    Animated Feature Film
    > Kubo and the Two Strings: BAFTA
    > Zootopia: Globe

    Writing(Adapted Screenplay)
    > Arrival: WGA
    > Lion: BAFTA
    > Moonlight: WGA

    Writing(Original Screenplay)
    > La La Land: Globe
    > Manchester by the Sea: BAFTA

    Cinematography
    > La La Land: BAFTA

    Film Editing
    > Hacksaw Ridge: BAFTA

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    Tom
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    Jun 15th, 2011
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    #1202022463

    Picture:
    La La Land

    Director:
    Damien Chazelle / La La Land

    Adapted Screenplay:
    Luke Davies / Lion

    Original Screenplay:
    Damien Chazelle / La La Land

    Actress:
    Emma Stone / La La Land

    Actor:
    Casey Affleck / Manchester by the Sea

    Supporting Actress:
    Viola Davis / Fences

    Supporting Actor:
    Dev Patel / Lion

    Foreign Language Film:
    The Salesman

    Animated Feature:
    Kubo and the Two Strings

    Documentary:
    O.J.: Made in America

    Production Design:
    La La Land

    Cinematography:
    Arrival

    Costume Design:
    Jackie

    Editing:
    La La Land

    Makeup and Hairstyling:
    Star Trek Beyond

    Original Score:
    La La Land

    Original Song:
    “City of Stars” / La La Land

    Sound Editing:
    Hacksaw Ridge

    Sound Mixing:
    La La Land

    Visual Effects:
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

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    Michael Norris
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    #1202023004

    Picture: La La Land
    Director: Damien Chazelle- La La Land
    Actor: Denzel Washington- Fences (basically a coin toss)
    Actress: Isabelle Huppert- Elle (I’m reminded of Cotillard’s win)
    Supporting Actor- Mahershala Ali- Moonlight (don’t rule out Dev)
    Supporting Actress- Viola Davis- Fences
    Original Screenplay- Manchester by the Sea
    Adapted Screenplay- Moonlight
    Editing- La La Land
    Cinematography- La La Land
    Score- La La Land
    Song- City of Stars- La La Land
    Production Design- La La Land
    Costume Design- Jackie (Period style, more obvious costumes)
    Makeup and Hairstyling- Star Trek Beyond
    Visual Effects- The Jungle Book
    Sound Mixing- La La Land
    Sound Editing- Hacksaw Ridge
    Animated Feature- Zootopia (Don’t rule out Kubo)
    Documentary Feature- O.J.: Made in America
    Foreign Language Film- The Salesman (Don’t rule out Ove or Toni)
    Live Action Short- Timecode (cute, clever, safe)
    Documenary Short- Joe’s Violin (Expecting the Syria shorts to split)
    Animated Short- Piper (Don’t rule out Pearl)

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    filmrush
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    #1202023030

    Prediction: Patel will be the upset of the night. The Academy will want to award LION, the movie peaked at just the right time, the backlash against Ali’s screen time has been growing, and Patel’s win at BAFTA will carry him through after the split at SAG and GG.

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    Andrew Carden
    Participant
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    Jan 16th, 2016
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    #1202023047

    My full, ranked, final predictions are up!

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    Alex Meyer
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    #1202023097

    I’m in the midst of getting my dinner and snacks ready, so I’ll post my will win and should win here:

    Best Art Direction
    Will win: La La Land
    Should win: Hail, Caesar!

    Best Cinematography
    Will win and should win: La La Land

    Best Costume Design
    Will win and should win: Jackie

    Best Film Editing
    Will win and should win: La La Land

    Best Makeup & Hairstyling
    Will win and should win: Star Trek Beyond

    Best Original Score
    Will win and should win: La La Land

    Best Original Song
    Will win and should win: “City Of Stars”—La La Land

    Best Sound Editing
    Will win and should win: Hacksaw Ridge

    Best Sound Mixing
    Will win and should win: La La Land

    Best Visual Effects
    Will win and should win: The Jungle Book

    Best Animated Short Film
    Will win and should win: Piper

    Best Live Action Short Film
    Will win: Enemies Within
    Should win: Silent Nights

    Best Documentary Short Subject
    Will win: The White Helmets
    Should win: 4.1 Miles

    Best Documentary Feature
    Will win and should win: O.J.: Made In America

    Best Foreign Language Film
    Will win: The Salesman
    Should win: A Man Called Ove

    Best Animated Feature
    Will win and should win: Zootopia

    Best Original Screenplay
    Will win and should win: Manchester By The Sea

    Best Adapted Screenplay
    Will win and should win: Moonlight

    Best Supporting Actor
    Will win and should win: Mahershala Ali—Moonlight

    Best Supporting Actress
    Will win and should win: Viola Davis—Fences

    Best Actor
    Will win and should win: Denzel Washington—Fences

    Best Actress
    Will win: Emma Stone—La La Land
    Should win: Natalie Portman—Jackie

    Best Director
    Will win and should win: Damien Chazelle—La La Land

    Best Picture
    Will win and should win: La La Land

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    Eddy Q
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    #1202023105

    Picture: La La Land
    Director: Damien Chazelle – La La Land
    Actor: Denzel Washington – Fences
    Actress: Emma Stone – La La Land
    Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
    Supporting Actress: Viola Davis – Fences
    Original Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea
    Adapted Screenplay: Moonlight
    Film Editing: La La Land
    Cinematography: La La Land
    Production Design: La La Land
    Costume Design: Jackie
    Makeup & Hair-styling: Star Trek Beyond
    Visual Effects: The Jungle Book
    Sound Editing: Hacksaw Ridge
    Sound Mixing: La La Land
    Original Score: La La Land
    Original Song: ‘City of Stars’ – La La Land
    Animated Feature: Kubo and the Two Strings
    Documentary Feature: O.J.: Made in America
    Foreign Language Film: The Salesman [Iran]
    Live-Action Short: La Femme et le TGV
    Animated Short: Piper
    Documentary Short: Watani: My Homeland

    These mostly look like lazy predictions on the surface, but the truth is I’ve agonised over a lot of these categories and it just so happens that the conclusions I’ve come to have coincided with all of the GoldDerby frontrunners (save for the shorts). The one major exception is my Kubo prediction for Animated Feature, which I have one of my big bets on.

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    GusCruz
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    #1202023154

    I am going crazy on two predictions: Suicide Squad for Makeup and Hairstyling and Fantastic Beasts for Production Design. For Makeup, I considered all three at some point. There are many examples in the past of movies like Ove not winning; Star Trek feels like such old news; Suicide Squad has the fact that the movie is absolute trash going against it, but it did win an award at the guild, so people are willing to vote for it, and it’s a more exciting choice. I almost just switched back to La La Land for Production Design, but I’m being stubborn (and possibly dumb) and sticking with Fantastic Beasts because I really think we’re going to see a version of Bafta’s “spreading the wealth” tonight, and I don’t think that film’s win can only be explained by the “British bias!” card. Stuart Craig is a beloved and overdue guy.

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    Eddy Q
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    #1202023160

    ^ How is Stuart Craig overdue? He won for Dangerous Liaisons and The English Patient. Anyway, name recognition rarely helps in below-the-line categories, as evidenced by Roger Deakins’, Thomas Newman’s and Kevin O’Connell’s perpetual losses.

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