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90TH ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS – Nominations Predictions

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  • unown
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    #1202475173

    I have (not including films with 1 noms)

    TSOW -12noms

    Dunkirk -8noms

    CMBYN -7noms

    DH -6noms (9th in Best Picture)

    3BB – 5noms

    LB – 5noms

    Get Out – 5noms

    I,Tonya – 5noms

    BLADE – 5noms

    WW -4noms (10th in Best Picture)

    PT -4noms

    Post – 3noms

    Mudbound – 3noms

    Beauty & Beast – 2noms

    TGS – 2noms

    Baby Driver – 2noms

    Predicting some suprise noms for WW. I also think darkest hour is gonna over-perform.

     

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    Riley
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    Because of the animation rule changes this category will be terrible. Mark my words.
    Coco
    The Lego Bateman Movie
    Loving Vincent
    Despicable Me 3
    Boss Baby

    Ugh, this lineup is so tempting. I still have The Breadwinner, but I really do not like that voters received it with Mary and the Witch’s Flower and The Big Bad Wolf and Other Tales. They all have about the same level of critical acclaim. The Breadwinner certainly did better in the precursor awards and has slightly better user ratings, but Mary and the Witch’s Flower did much better at the box office. Maybe they will like The Breadwinner better than Mary and the Witch’s Flower if they watch both, but the latter is apparently the more appealing title. I just do not like that they have to choose. With the old system, both would have gotten in because they were rating the films, but the new ranking system means that they are going to eat into each other’s support. Something unclear about the new system is how easy it is to opt into voting for Best Animated Feature.

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    eastwest
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    #1202475182

    Last changes are I, Tonya in screenplay and The Post in production design.

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    Teridax
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    #1202475184

    Because of the animation rule changes this category will be terrible. Mark my words.

    Coco
    The Lego Batman Movie
    Loving Vincent
    Despicable Me 3
    Boss Baby

    Why not The Breadwinner? I think that over-performed at the Annies, getting about 10 nominations. Meanwhile, The Lego Batman Movie couldn’t even get nominated for Best Picture at the Annies, which you usually need if you want to score an Animated Feature Oscar nod. I will only predict a “Lego” movie to get an Animated Feature Oscar nod when I see it happen with one of them. Lego’s don’t have snob appeal.

    Also, I’m debating whether or not to switch out The Shape of Water for I, Tonya in Costume Design. Is The Shape of Water really going to pull a La La Land? I have it getting both Supporting like with the Globes, VFX, both Sound, yet I’m still debating whether or not to keep it in for Best Costume Design. What do you think? Maybe Wonder Woman?

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    Pulp
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    I just finished my predictions…. I don’t feel good about it.

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    Hunter-ish
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    Why not The Breadwinner? I think that over-performed at the Annies, getting about 10 nominations.

    Oscar voters are lazy. They will go for the Big names. And the ones with PGA support are it with the addition of Loving Vincent because it has the most buzz outside of Coco.

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    Hunter-ish
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    ANYBODY PLEASE READ THIS

    Anybody (specifically Riley but others also) Please go through my predictions and tell me if any are stupid and what I should take out. I feel pretty good about them with the exception of sound and short categories. Also, should I switch I, Tonya for Wonder Woman in costumes?

    • This reply was modified 4 months ago by  Hunter-ish.
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    Riley
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    #1202475196

    Sass.

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    Hunter-ish
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    Sass.

    It wasn’t sass I actually am asking you specifically to go in my predictions and tell me which ones are stupid. I genuinely was asking for advice lol maybe I worded it badly?

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    Teridax
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    #1202475200

    These are my 5 for Costume Design. I’m pretty confident on the first 3, but I want to take out one of the last 2 for Wonder Woman but can’t decide which. Any help please?

    Best Costume Design

    1. Phantom Thread
    2. Beauty and the Beast
    3. The Greatest Showman
    4. Darkest Hour
    5. The Shape of Water

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    Pulp
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    @hunter-ish you’re predictions are pretty conservative so I don’t think anything is crazy. I do have WW over I Tonya for costumes but I’m not feeling confident in that.

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    nevkm
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    Best Supporting Actress is a nightmare.

    Allison Janney
    Laurie Metcalf
    Holly Hunter (not sure)
    Hong Chau (not sure about her either)
    Spencer or Blige?

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    Riley
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    All good, I was just playing.

    I am updating my predictions and there has been a lot of movement in the odds today.  Logan has moved up to fifth for adapted and Wonder has fallen from 25/1 to 50/1.  My 100/1 odds on Wonder are less of an incentive to keep predicting it now.  The Lost City of Z is tempting.  It has the top-ten lists, but it would be a fuller package with 80+ on Metacritic.

    I had not realized that The Greatest Showman missed ADG.  The last nominee that they missed was Mr. Turner three years ago (and it had a BAFTA nomination to compensate).  ADG did vote somewhat early, which would have hurt The Greatest Showman, but they nominated The Post, which negates that defense.  Six years ago though, they miraculously missed both Midnight in Paris and War HorseMidnight in Paris had not shown up at any precursors; War Horse had gotten BAFTA and Critics’ Choice.  Those were of course both Best Picture nominees though.  Eight years ago, ADG somehow missed three Oscar nominees, none of which were close to a Best Picture nomination: The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (BAFTA and Satellite nominations), Nine (Critics’ Choice nomination) and The Young Victoria (no precursors). Maybe this is where we get the random Wonder Woman nomination.

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    Teridax
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    #1202475223

    Best Supporting Actress is a nightmare.

    Allison Janney
    Laurie Metcalf
    Holly Hunter (not sure)
    Hong Chau (not sure about her either)
    Spencer or Blige?

    Spencer. Don’t underestimate the anti-Netflix bias, plus TSOW is a much more widely-seen film. If Octavia can get in for Hidden Figures she should have an even easier time getting in for a Best Picture frontrunner.

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    Teridax
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    All good, I was just playing.

    I am updating my predictions and there has been a lot of movement in the odds today. Logan has moved up to fifth for adapted and Wonder has fallen from 25/1 to 50/1. My 100/1 odds on Wonder are less of an incentive to keep predicting it now. The Lost City of Z is tempting. It has the top-ten lists, but it would be a fuller package with 80+ on Metacritic.

    I had not realized that The Greatest Showman missed ADG. The last nominee that they missed was Mr. Turner three years ago (and it had a BAFTA nomination to compensate). ADG did vote somewhat early, which would have hurt The Greatest Showman, but they nominated The Post, which negates that defense. Six years ago though, they miraculously missed both Midnight in Paris and War Horse. Midnight in Paris had not shown up at any precursors; War Horse had gotten BAFTA and Critics’ Choice. Those were of course both Best Picture nominees though. Eight years ago, ADG somehow missed three Oscar nominees, none of which were close to a Best Picture nomination: The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (BAFTA and Satellite nominations), Nine (Critics’ Choice nomination) and The Young Victoria (no precursors). Maybe this is where we get the random Wonder Woman nomination.

    Here are my 5 for Production Design, strictly going off of precursors. What do you think?

    Best Production Design

    1. The Shape of Water
    2. Blade Runner 2049
    3. Beauty and the Beast
    4. Darkest Hour
    5. Dunkirk

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