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January 12, 2018 at 2:07 pm #1202465898
I think we’re headed towards a Lady Bird shutout. Metcalf isn’t dead yet, and it still has a chance in original screenplay.January 12, 2018 at 2:26 pm #1202465903
I think we’re headed towards a Lady Bird shutout. Metcalf isn’t dead yet, and it still has a chance in original screenplay.
I agree. Hopefully Metcalf will win SAG or BAFTA. I love Allison Janney and I, Tonya so I am happy for her but I wanted Metcalf to win something too. Sweeps make award season boring.January 12, 2018 at 2:31 pm #1202465907
I am choosing to wait to see what the final nominees list looks like; I am convinced there are going to be huge surprises this year, with really big snubs for things we all think are locks. My reason: there are often more than 5 who either really deserve or are expected to be nominated. IDK, Janney or Metcalf? We need to wait for SAG on that one. I know there are partisans for Get Out, Three Billboards AND Lady Bird for Original Screenplay; I only liked the last of those three. We need to see if the male director’s branch nominates Greta Gerwig (I hope so). And I am thinking that Ronan and Robbie are going to split the pretty younger woman actress vote unfortunately ): I would so prefer either of them, Meryl Streep, Sally Hawkins, Judi Dench, Annette Bening, Emma Stone, Salma Hayek to Frances McDormand ): I think we have to wait until the 23rd to see how it all shakes out…January 12, 2018 at 3:24 pm #1202465934
I think we have to wait until the 23rd to see how it all shakes out…
Agreed. Despite all of the chatter around the rotating buzz and precursor momentum, this feels like a year where we’ll going to have to pick our jaws up off the ground on nominations morning.January 12, 2018 at 3:40 pm #1202465940
Totally agreed.January 12, 2018 at 4:35 pm #1202465956
It’s possible but SAG will tell the tale. If it comes up with nothing there then it may be finished.January 12, 2018 at 6:38 pm #1202465995
Despite McDormand cementing her frontrunner status with every win, Ronan isn’t out yet. At BAFTA, the European factor could help her there.
My feeling is that if there’s some british that’s gonna upset McDormand, that will be Sally Hawkins.
There is no such thing as a “European factor” or even British favoritism at BAFTA. Not in Best Actress. Emmanuelle Riva is the only time where BAFTA voters gave the award to a European Actress over the eventual Oscar winner (Jennifer Lawrence).
Since the year 2000, each time a British Actress won the BAFTA for Best Actress, she was either the frontrunner and eventual Oscar winner (Helen Mirren, Kate Winslet) or the Oscar frontrunner and eventual Oscar Best Actress winner was not nominated for a BAFTA (Sandra Bullock, Hilary Swank, Halle Berry, Charlize Theron).
So if people are assuming BAFTA will vote for their British counterparts
as some favoritism patriotic pact, that aint happening, because it doesn’t happen at BAFTA. That’s one thing nobody can accuse the Brits of in Best Actress.January 12, 2018 at 6:46 pm #1202465997
I despise AviChristiaans but he’s right. BAFTA is worthless these days because they’re trying to predict Oscars instead of awarding the best people.January 12, 2018 at 6:51 pm #1202465999
Agreed. It’s looking like a shutout for Lady Bird. To be fair, it is extremely overhyped now (unfortunately). It’s a great film, but coming-of-age movies don’t do that well with Oscar.
I think Lady Bird will only end up with the following 4 nominations:
Best Supporting Actress
Best Original Screenplay
it MIGHT get into Director… but if it does, make no mistake, its because of the #MeToo movement. This isn’t the type of film that typically gets nominated in Best Director. In a perfect world, Dee Rees would get in or even Patty Jenkins over Greta Gerwig.
It’s only shot at a win is Original Screenplay… which I think it has a fighting chance at scoring… but currently Three Billboards seems to be the frontrunner (even if most people might think Get Out is).
Having lost the Globe and the Critics Choice awards, I think Metcalf is out of the competition now. Allison Janney is the frontrunner now in Supporting Actress… and… its looking like that category might have a surprise winner (say, maybe Leslie Manville if she ends up being nominated).January 12, 2018 at 10:40 pm #1202466063
The world is not good enough to let us see this overrated movie leave empty-handed. If anything, it will probably sweep everything.January 13, 2018 at 1:55 am #1202466158
Good to know some people also think that this film is overhyped and overrated. The only acceptable wins would be Gerwig (screenplay – and nomination in Director) and Metcalf (though I low-key root for Janney).January 13, 2018 at 7:30 am #1202466285
Lady Bird is a million times better than Three Billboards. While it didn’t quite make my top ten films of the year, most of my favorites are foreign and documentaries, only Call Me By Your Name, The Florida Project, and The Post were viable potential BP nominees that I would prefer to see win the Oscar this year.