Alicia Vikander: Will she “category confuse” herself out of a nomination?

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  • traxton
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    #203080

    Alicia Vikander had a spectacular year in film, most notably for her roles in The Danish Girl and Ex-Machina, in which she’s being pushed for Supporting for both films (arguably category fradulent for the former film). Unlike Cate Blanchett’s initial problem of having to run in lead for both Truth and Carol, at least Truth kind of DOAed and is no longer up for any major award contention, so she can focus her entire campaigning strategy towards Carol. However for Vikander, both her performances are getting tons of precursor awards/nominations in various categories with no consensus formed yet. Some critic groups even nominated her for Lead in The Danish Girl and Supporting in Ex-Machina at the same time.

    So what do you think her chances are for nominations: in both categories, either category, or none at all; and for which films? I have a sneaking suspicion that she will miss out on nominations altogether because of the category confusion and vote splitting, ala Scarlett Johannson back when she was in contention for Lost in Translation and Girl with a Pearl Earring.

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    Filmatelist
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    #203082

    I think her chances of getting nom’d for lead in DANISH are strong.  Felicity Jones got a similar nod last year and anyone who’s seen the film would be hard-pressed to justify calling her supporting, campaign strategies or other awards notwithstanding.  If she doesn’t make it for lead, it may be simply because it’s a competitive field, though Lawrence is looking more vulnerable and I think we can count on more voters rallying to Vikander than Theron (because of the genre bias) or Rampling (because of the film’s smaller profile).

    The fact that Vikander is a possibilty for supporting for a different film is actually to her advantage, IMHO, because it creates clarity around labeling one as supporting and one not.  She’s still a longer shot for MACHINA, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility, since DANISH provides a vivid contrast between two very different roles in two very different types of films (though both well-received). 

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    jordandepaola
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    #203083

    I honestly think this years nominations will have more surprises than any other year. I think Alicia has a high chance of getting nominated. But who really know for what?

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    traxton
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    #203084

    I think her chances of getting nom’d for lead in DANISH are strong.  Felicity Jones got a similar nod last year and anyone who’s seen the film would be hard-pressed to justify calling her supporting, campaign strategies or other awards notwithstanding.  If she doesn’t make it for lead, it may be simply because it’s a competitive field, though Lawrence is looking more vulnerable and I think we can count on more voters rallying to Vikander than Theron (because of the genre bias) or Rampling (because of the film’s smaller profile).

    The fact that Vikander is a possibilty for supporting for a different film is actually to her advantage, IMHO, because it creates clarity around labeling one as supporting and one not.  She’s still a longer shot for MACHINA, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility, since DANISH provides a vivid contrast between two very different roles in two very different types of films (though both well-received). 

    I think Lead is too crowded now for Vikander to sneak in with The Danish Girl. There’re already locks for Larson, Ronan, Blanchett. Lawrence most likely is happening. Then there’s Tomlin, Rampling, Mara, Mulligan, Theron and a whole host of other contenders fighting for that fifth slot.

    For Supporting, her stronger “showcasing performance” is The Danish Girl over Ex-Machina, that is if every Academy voter bought the category fruad that the studio is trying to push for. Since voters cannot put down the same actor for two nominations in two different films in the same category, or the same actor for the same role in two different categories, you’ll have a group putting her down for Supporting in Ex-Machina, another group for Supporting in The Danish Girl, another group putting her down for Lead in The Danish Girl, and another group putting her down for both Lead and Supporting in The Danish Girl and Ex-Machina respectively. Without any consensus as to where to place Vikander and for which role, there will be vote splitting and she might miss out on a nomination altogether.

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    Eddy Q
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    #203085

    Since voters cannot put down the same actor for two nominations in two different films in the same category, or the same actor for the same role in two different categories, you’ll have a group putting her down for Supporting in Ex-Machina, another group for Supporting in The Danish Girl, another group putting her down for Lead in The Danish Girl, and another group putting her down for both Lead and Supporting in The Danish Girl and Ex-Machina respectively. Without any consensus as to where to place Vikander and for which role, there will be vote splitting and she might miss out on a nomination altogether.

    I remember reading that voters actually can individually vote for the same performance in both categories if they feel unsure which category a performance belongs in. Of course that cannot result in an actual double nomination after the votes are counted. I’m not sure but I think they might also be allowed to vote for two separate perfs by the same actor in the same category, but again, the one with fewer votes is eliminated even if they both get in the top five. 

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    Sasha
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    #203086

    Funny thing is she’s my best leading actress winner for The Danish Girl (tied with Rooney Mara) but I’d rather see them both snubbed than nominated in supporting category. I know I’m probably the only person here who’s unbiased when it comes to her favorites.

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    manakamana
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    #203087

    I don’t think she has any risk of splitting votes with Ex-Machina. Her awards attention for that is strictly a critics thing. I think they’ll be able to buy the supporting placement, but there’s a spot open for someone like her or Mara in lead (though it doesn’t look like The Danish Girl is doing as well as Carol in general).

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    Mladen Vukcevic
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    #203088

    I don’t think she has any risk of splitting votes with Ex-Machina. Her awards attention for that is strictly a critics thing. I think they’ll be able to buy the supporting placement, but there’s a spot open for someone like her or Mara in lead (though it doesn’t look like The Danish Girl is doing as well as Carol in general).

    I am inclined to believe the same, with the correction that Alicia went to Globe nod for Ex Machina, so it is not just critics. But, just for the sake of argument, I would say that Alicia’s nom is threatened on two fronts. First, inside the voting body of TDG is split between the Lead and Supporting category placement, and then we have the split inside the Supporting Category, with her having two things – TDG and EM to compete. So, if she gets split on both of those fronts, nomination can be unlikely. Which is pity. She deserves an Oscar nom for outstanding year.

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    traxton
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    #203089

    Now that Vikander is picking up a lot more award traction for Ex-Machina than The Danish Girl, I feel more inclined to think that the Academy would nominate her for Supp in Ex-Machina instead. I hope that the outcome is at least 1 nomination for Alicia in either role in either category. It’ll be such a travesty for her to miss out entirely for a spectacular year.

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    ankehuber
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    #203090

    in my opinion, for her to be nominated is going lead for THE DANISH GIRL, and go supporting for EX MACHINA, she could even be a double nominee for this year Oscars.

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    jamesgray
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    #203091

    If I were her, I would forget the mess of a movie that is THE DANISH GIRL altogether and just campaign for supporting with EX MACHINA. Much stronger, clearer case in a movie that will not be looked back at in disgust years from now.

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    Monty
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    #203092

    I think the chance for Vikander to miss out supporting nomination is very low. If she goes into lead for The Danish Girl or does not get nominated for Danish Girl due to splitting of votes, she still would have got nominated for the Ex Machina in supporting. If Mara is nominated in lead, Vikander will surely win supporting. If Mara is in supporting, she still have a shot in winning given that she delivered two stunning performance this year

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    Xtina
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    #203093

    No.  She will be nominated in Best Supporting Actress for something.

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    ankehuber
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    #203094

    at the BAFTA she didn’t confuse herself for the nominations, she is the new double nominee, best leading actress for THE DANISH GIRL, and best suppporting actress for EX MACHINA !… JUST FANTASTIC ! CONGRATULATIONS TO HER !

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    TerenceFletcher
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    #203095

    These precursors are really trying to convince us she’s going to be double-nominated, but I am still hesitant.

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