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Animated Feature stats and predictions- The Good Dinosaur snubbed?

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  • pcarron
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    #204389

    I think it’s pretty safe to say that this Oscar race is Inside Out’s to lose. Having said that, the rest of the nominees might be a little more up in the air than many are expecting.  Most predictions seem to have the nominees going like this:      1) Inside Out  2) Anomalisa  3) The Good Dinosaur  4) Shaun the Sheep Movie  5) The Peanuts Movie

    Here are some interesting stats, though, that might signal some suprising snubs. Although the Oscars and the Annie Awards don’t always line up, the Annies are usually a pretty good indicator of what to expect for Oscar noms. Just as in the main Oscar race where writing, directing and editing noms are hugely correlated to scoring a Best Picture nom, there seems to be a correlation between those same categories at the Annies and the Best Animated Feature nominees with the Academy. 

    For example, since the Outstanding Editorial Achievement was introduced at the Annies in 2011, animated pictures who receive Annie nominations for writing, directing, editing and best feature have a statistically great chance at earning an Ocar nomination. Only once in that time was a movie recognized in all those categories and not by the Academy: The Lego Movie (which was, by most accounts, the most shocking Oscar snub of all last year). 

    And going all the way back to 2004, of movies that Annie recognized in writing, directing and best feature, only four more were snubbed by the Academy: Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs (2010), The Simpsons Movie (2008), Waltz With Bashir (2009, although this WAS nominated by the Academy in the Foreign Language Film category) and Millennium Actress (2004, although I’m not even sure if this film was eligible for an Oscar nom because it had been released in Japan two years prior). The latter three snubs took place during years when only three films were nominated by the Academy. 

    Conversely, few films have been nominated by the Academy without first securing the key Annie nominations of writing and directing and editing when it was introduced (best feature is not taken into account here, however).  Again, since 2012 only three movies were nominated for the Oscar without having picked up a W/D/E Annie nom first: Chico & Rita and A Cat in Paris (both in 2012, and both -especially Cat in Paris- considered huge long shots for noms over Cars 2 and The Adventures of Tintin) and Despicable Me 2 (2014, and if I’m being honest, why was this even nominated?! Blech…). 

    Since ’04, additional pictures that have earned the Oscar nom but not the W/D Annies number just three: The Princess and the Frog and The Secret of Kells (both 2010) and Bolt (2009).

    What does this mean for the current Oscar race? Things look great for Inside Out and Shaun the Sheep Movie, both having been nominated in all four key Annie categories W/D/E/F.  The Annie noms may also mean good news for three other films who picked up 3/4: Anomalisa (D/E/F), When Marnie Was There (picked up the tell-tale W/D as well as Independent Feature, the new category introduced by Annie this year) and The Prophet (D/E and Independent Feature). 

    Who falls on the losing end of the noms? The Good Dinosaur, which was nominated for Best Feature, but NONE of the other key areas looks like a long shot when cast in that light. The Peanuts movie was recognized for directing and Best Feature, but not writing or editing.

    Furthermore, some of the reasons people gave for The Lego Movie’s snub last year in favor of Song of the Sea and Tale of the Princess Kaguya (the animation branch respects hand-made movies and prefers classic storytelling over blockbusters and cute kiddie movies) seem to work in favor of When Marnie Was There and The Prophet.  Rumor also has it that When Marnie Was There is the final effort by the fabled Studio Ghibli which could signal a sentimental nomination. Frankly, I’m surprised more people aren’t predicting it in their top three.

    I honestly don’t see Peanuts being a big player- it’s cute and nostalgic but middling.  I also wouldn’t be shocked if The Good Dinosaur was missing from the Oscar nominations either.  Oscar loves Pixar, but it wouldn’t be the first time they missed out on a nom.  This happened most recently two years ago when Monsters University was the only Pixar pic in the running and it was bumped in favor of Ernest & Celestine.  

    Ernest & Celestine was released by GKIDS, the same studio behind surprise Oscar noms The Secret of Kells over Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs in 2010, Chico & Rita and A Cat in Paris over Cars 2 and Tintin in 2012 and Song of the Sea and Princess Kaguya over The Lego Movie last year – as well as this year’s When Marnie Was There, The Prophet and another dark horse Boy and the World.

    Have I convinced you yet?  What are your thoughts?

    Here are my current predictions:
    1) Inside Out
    2) Anomalisa
    3) When Marnie Was There
    4) Shaun the Sheep Movie
    5) The Prophet
    6) The Good Dinosaur
    7) Boy and the World
    8) Peanuts
    9) Minions
    10) Everything else 

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    Riley
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    #204391

    I had also noticed after nominations that it had been snubbed by the Annies in writing/directing/editing/acting and this confirmed my suspicions about it.  I had removed it from my predictions a couple of days earlier because of its lukewarm reviews and the category’s tendency to surprisingly snub something major.  I investigated and the only ones that gone on to the Oscars after missing those Annie categories were Chico & Rita, A Cat in Paris and The Secret of Kells.  Being a major Pixar production, it had no obstacles.

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    Sagand
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    #204392

    I also noticed that when Gold Derby did it’s ‘How ballots are counted’ articles, they didn’t mention that some categories like animation and the shorts get rated from 6 to 10 and the highest scorers get nominated (if over 7.5).  It makes the snub for ‘The Lego Movie’ more understandable, I’m sure many people rated it 10 but others rated it low. That’s why this year I’m predicting ‘The Boy and the World’ and ‘When Marnie was There’ to get in over the more visible contenders ‘The Good Dinosaur’ and ‘The Peanuts Movie’.

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    pcarron
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    #204393

    I also noticed that when Gold Derby did it’s ‘How ballots are counted’ articles, they didn’t mention that some categories like animation and the shorts get rated from 6 to 10 and the highest scorers get nominated (if over 7.5).  It makes the snub for ‘The Lego Movie’ more understandable, I’m sure many people rated it 10 but others rated it low. That’s why this year I’m predicting ‘The Boy and the World’ and ‘When Marnie was There’ to get in over the more visible contenders ‘The Good Dinosaur’ and ‘The Peanuts Movie’.

    Great point, thanks for bringing that up.  Also the individuals of the nominating committee for this category are required to watch most of the eligible films- two-thirds I think?-  so there’s less chance of less widely distributed films getting passed over simply because they weren’t seen. 

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    Tyler The Awesome Guy
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    #204394

    I totally think Good Dinosaur could be snubbed in favour of When Marnie Was There.

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    Ryan Lapierre
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    #204395

    For a some reason I’m really thinking the 5 will be Inside out, Anomalisa, Shaun the sheep, When marine was there, A prophet. I really do

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    Eddy Q
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    #204396

    ^ I’m sceptical about The Prophet’s chances, its reviews are rather mixed and there are two other GKIDS films which I think are more likely, When Marnie Was There and Boy and the World. The latter is being especially underestimated – even judging by the trailer I just can’t imagine the animation branch ignoring it, not when they’ve gone for so many other traditionally animated films.

    This discussion has influenced me to remove The Good Dinosaur from my predictions, though I’d already been debating it. The Peanuts Movie is an easier miss, and I’d actually be shocked if it were nominated. What is it doing in so many predictions over all the GKIDS films? Haven’t people learned from previous years? 

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    Sagand
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    #204397

    ‘The Prophet’ is pretty divisive too, only 70% on Rotten Tomatoes, 61% on Metacritic and 6.9 on IMDB. (Compared to ‘The Boy and the World’ 95% on RT, 76% on metacritic and 8.0 on IMDB)

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    pcarron
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    #204398

    ^ I’m sceptical about The Prophet’s chances, its reviews are rather mixed and there are two other GKIDS films which I think are more likely, When Marnie Was There and Boy and the World. The latter is being especially underestimated – even judging by the trailer I just can’t imagine the animation branch ignoring it, not when they’ve gone for so many other traditionally animated films.

    ‘The Prophet’ is pretty divisive too, only 70% on Rotten Tomatoes, 61% on Metacritic and 6.9 on IMDB. (Compared to ‘The Boy and the World’ 95% on RT, 76% on metacritic and 8.0 on IMDB)

    Very true.  I’d really like to watchThe Prophet to be able to understand why the reviews are so mediocre.  I have to assume Prophet and Boy and the World will be fighting for that fifth spot.  I could see it going either way.  

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    Riley
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    #204399

    Cool to see that we all agree and will be ahead of the media on this.  Great job, team!

    The Good Dinosaur is even disappointing at the box office and there was that article in Variety about how Pixar is suffering its first loss.  The academy is not going to want to associate itself with a failure or we would all still be predicting Steve Jobs.

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    Damiansport1
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    #204400

    Good Dinosaur will be nominated. Cmon. Its not the best pixar but still good and better than most animated films.

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    Riley
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    #204401

    The Good Dinosaur has a couple of things going for it.  First is its groundbreaking animation.  Unlike at the Annies, the Oscars do not have a place to recognize the animation on its own, so they may just have to vote for it in Animated Feature.  Second is that although the academy usually throws some foreign films in there, they do not always.  I am talking about 2012 when they snubbed The Painting, From Up on Poppy Hill and The Rabbi’s Cat, even though their reviews were in line with the American nominees.  The Good Dinosaur would be the worst-reviewed Pixar film ever to be nominated however.  The two with worse scores on Metacritic were snubbed; next worse is 2012’s Brave.

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    Ryan Lapierre
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    #204402

    ^ I’m sceptical about The Prophet’s chances, its reviews are rather mixed and there are two other GKIDS films which I think are more likely, When Marnie Was There and Boy and the World. The latter is being especially underestimated – even judging by the trailer I just can’t imagine the animation branch ignoring it, not when they’ve gone for so many other traditionally animated films.

    This discussion has influenced me to remove The Good Dinosaur from my predictions, though I’d already been debating it. The Peanuts Movie is an easier miss, and I’d actually be shocked if it were nominated. What is it doing in so many predictions over all the GKIDS films? Haven’t people learned from previous years? 

    Thanks for the information. I didn’t even know what Boy Meets World was until you said that but thank you that helps me a lot.

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    pcarron
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    #204403

    The Good Dinosaur has a couple of things going for it.  First is its groundbreaking animation.  Unlike at the Annies, the Oscars do not have a place to recognize the animation on its own, so they may just have to vote for it in Animated Feature.  Second is that although the academy usually throws some foreign films in there, they do not always.  I am talking about 2012 when they snubbed The Painting, From Up on Poppy Hill and The Rabbi’s Cat, even though their reviews were in line with the American nominees.  The Good Dinosaur would be the worst-reviewed Pixar film ever to be nominated however.  The two with worse scores on Metacritic were snubbed; next worse is 2012’s Brave.

    That’s definitely the best thing The Good Dinosaur has going for it.  It is, after all, Best Animated Feature and some will argue that Good Dinosaur has the best animation of any eligible pic this year.  Films like When Marnie Was There and Boy and the World are beautiful in their own simple ways, but one could argue that they don’t advance the art of animated film the same way Good Dinosaur does.  I don’t feel that Good Dinosaur has the same narrative strength and storytelling ability that some of these other films do, though. It just depends on which direction the Academy decides to go.  And Brave did win that year despite less-than-stellar reviews when most people were expecting it to go to Wreck-it-Ralph or even Frankenweenie first, so being a Pixar film might still be worth more than we realize. 

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    manakamana
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    #204404

    I feel like the box office performance and reviews is enough to put The Good Dinosaur at a disadvantage, especially given Pixar’s standing in the race already with Inside Out.

    I think Inside Out, Anomalisa and Shaun the Sheep are pretty safe, and I think The Peanuts Movie might have some sympathy for the Peanuts brand in general and how closely they worked to make it feel “organic” to the initial strip. But it’s vulnerable since it didn’t really wow anybody. The Boy and the World has gotten some good reviews and press for a tiny animated movie like that, and I think When Marnie Was There is possible also. 

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