December 10, 2015 at 11:02 am #200314
Do you think these two men who have trumped likely frontrunners like Hardy, Ruffalo and Keaton could be en route for Oscars?December 10, 2015 at 11:09 am #200316
I didn’t realize people were underestimating Rylance, I thought he’s been considered a strong threat for a while. Although I definitely didn’t see those Keaton/Ruffalo snubs coming, it would appear that Mr. Rylance is the new frontrunner in this category by default.
Michael Shannon gives my favorite performance in this category so I’m glad to see he’s doing well, especially coming from such a tiny film and distributor it suggests some real passion there for him. I don’t imagine he can win, though.December 10, 2015 at 11:19 am #200317
I have long expected Rylance to win. He might well be the most respected English-language actor on the planet through his stage work, and his role and performance are the kind of thing other actors will really see accomplishment in. Add that to the ability to give a legitimate award to a movie that seems to be liked but unlike to win elsewhere. It many of the same reasons that made me never waver in predicting Tilda Swinton for “Michael Clayton.”December 10, 2015 at 11:26 am #200318
Michael Shannon nominations give the entire race a much-needed shot in the arm. I hope he wins everything he’s nominated for so that no studio, no campaign and no actor ever feels like the gauntlet is insurmountable.December 10, 2015 at 2:07 pm #200319
I’m getting the feeling that Shannon might be like a Daniel Bruhl situation. He’ll get in a few places but miss the nomination because it seems like the academy just isn’t seeing the movie.December 10, 2015 at 4:21 pm #200320
Mark Rylance leads the predictions center, so he is not possibly underestimated. He has also been in the top five per the Gold Derby collective since the first week of October.
Shannon on the other hand had 100/1 odds just days ago and is still only at 40/1.December 10, 2015 at 9:35 pm #200321
I am over the moon over this Michael Shannon love. He is my Runner Up so far in personal favorites and is so amazing in 99 Homes. I think he’s going to take the Spirit awardDecember 11, 2015 at 11:32 am #200322
I think Rylance is more assured of a nomination, but between the two, Shannon is more likely a winner if he gets the nod (not a lock, but very promising).
Rylance is fantastic, of course, but it’s also a kind of role rarely awarded an actual Oscar–a low-key, highly muted performance. Acting-with-a-capital-A is often a major factor (even if the acting is good) and Rylance just never does that. There’s no showcase scene. He’s just consistently good all the time.
Shannon’s role is much meatier. First off, he’s in most of the movie (Rylance, understandably, disappears through most of the Berlin section of BRIDGE) and the defacto lead, especially against the lightweight Garfield. With a bigger movie, it wouldn’t have been out of place to picture him as the lead (think Douglas in WALL STREET, essentially the same kind of role).
Shannon also has the advantage of an Academy pedigree. His turn for REVOLUTIONARY ROAD was well-earned, but a bit unexpected since he only has two or three brief scenes in the whole film. Here, he’s got a lot more real estate (pardon the pun) to work with and he tears into it.
It’s a competitive field and it’s foolish to rule out Stallone, Elba, Dano, Tremblay, or either of the SPOTLIGHTers, so somebody will be left hanging. So while Rylance is highly revered, I think his shot at a nod is good but a win not-so-much. But if Shannon squeaks in, he’s a formidable factor.December 11, 2015 at 5:58 pm #200323
Isn´t Ryalance a critics favorite? Who is underestimating him….
Shannon is, and its been surprising to see him feature so strongly, specially now in the industry nominations. I´m still not convinced he´ll get in at the oscars. He also has a track record of being snubbed after many nominations beforehand. Take shelter anyone?December 11, 2015 at 6:17 pm #200324
But he wasn’t nominated for a key precursor like a SAG for Take Shelter. This is a much different case than Take Shelter and even Revolutionary Road where he got in with no precursorsDecember 11, 2015 at 6:38 pm #200325
I doubt Michael Shannon is going to receive a nomination. He is basically this year’s Jessica Chastain. 99 Homes isn’t gaining traction in any other category and when it comes time for voters to watch screeners they are going to gravitate towards movies that have lead contenders first.December 11, 2015 at 8:24 pm #200326
Mark Rylance has been mentioned since forever and plenty of people have predicted him. Michael Shannon has been underestimated for sure (I sure as hell did) and now he’s here with the first two big noms of the season.
But I wouldn’t be surprised at all if neither of them end up making it. Bridge of Spies is fading and Shannon’s film is small as hell and they could be replaced easily with those who were snubbed this week. People think that because they got both nominations they’re in but look who was snubbed either at SAG or Globes: Tremblay first of all, Stallone, I mean these two look like bigger bets, the Spotlight men, people from Big Short (Bale being lead at the Globes helped here), Hardy (will buzz grow when the film opens?).
In general, I think people are right in underestimating them, they don’t necessarily look like actors that can sustain buzz until the Oscar noms come out. I agree that both of them look very Chastain 2014 or Bruhl 2013.