October 17, 2017 at 4:39 pm #1202240885
For argument’s sake Oldman is the only acting lock of the season. McDormand despite my annoyance at her being in the position to repeat at Best Actress has the movie and the performance to justify especially when her closest rival is in an odd genre exercise. Only thing going against her is her rival is not a previous winner. The supporting categories are wide open for nominations and winners throughout the precursor season till Oscar morning.October 17, 2017 at 4:56 pm #1202240897
I don’t think McDormand is a lock. But, yes, in my opinion she is the frontrunner. I can’t see Sally Hawkins winning. Not because her character has sex with a fish, but because TSOW is a genre movie and Hawkins isn’t a much known name. She would’t be the safest choice like Emma Stone and I am not seeing the same passion Brie Larson had for Room right after TIFF. The other contenders also don’t look as strong as McDormand. And I’m honestly thinking that Three Billboards will win Best Picture.October 17, 2017 at 6:52 pm #1202241045
My predictions as of now:
Actor- Gary Oldman
Actress- Sally Hawkins
Supporting Actor- Sam Rockwell
Supporting Actress- Allison JanneyOctober 18, 2017 at 3:30 am #1202241418
My predictions FOR NOW:
Yes, that’s right. I actually have The Shape of Water winning 3 of the 4 acting categories. Call me crazy, brave, or both. I don’t care, I’m just listening to my gut even though I know it is most likely wrong on this one. 😐
Michael Shannon is one of those actors whose worked with everyone on a ton of movies, he’s been nominated twice already, it feels like his time.
Octavia Spencer like Shannon got nominated last year but didn’t win and has won already herself, I just see her happening too.
Sally Hawkins feels more and more like a lock with every passing week until I suspect she becomes one of those inevitable Viola Davis winning for “Fences” type of locks where she has won in every respect except for receiving the Oscar statuette itself.
I have no confidence in Gary Oldman. At all. I think he could still get in and even pull off a career win with what a “weak” category it is. However, it should be noted that Best Actor has many great contenders like Hugh Jackman “Logan,” Andy Serkis “War For The Planet of the Apes,” and James Mcavoy “Split,” but they are all in movies that will sadly be ignored because of the Academy’s notorious genre bias. Jeremy Renner was great in “Wind River,” but the Weinstein Company connection ought to doom the film’s awards season prospects. Robert Pattinson was excellent in “Good Time” but I don’t think enough people saw that movie or are still talking about it. Even Charlie Hunnam would be a deserving nominee for “The Lost City of Z” but like Good Time I don’t think it has enough mainstream buzz for Oscar voters to remember it exists. You see, there ARE a ton of great contenders for Best Actor… they just happen to either be in film genre the Academy looks down upon, in films that don’t have enough popular hype, or have the tragic fate of having Harvey Weinstein as an “executive producer.”October 18, 2017 at 4:42 am #1202241451
TSOW is not getting 3 acting wins. I doubt it’s even getting 3 nominations.
Oldman is sensational in Darkest Hour. He’s not just the front runner because of some overdue status. He’s the front runner because he gives far and away the best Lead Actor performance of the year. Head and shoulders above anyone else that you’ve mentioned.October 18, 2017 at 10:34 am #1202241720
There is legit zero chance Spencer wins (though I do have her netting a nom at least).
OSCAR FLASHBACK: Nicholson at the Oscars (1997) – As Good As It GetsOctober 18, 2017 at 11:04 am #1202241726
I think if Shannon gets nominated then he’ll be a serious threat for the win. But his toughest battle will be getting in over his strong co-star, Jenkins and the rest of the crowded Supporting Actor field.October 18, 2017 at 12:11 pm #1202241764
It’s a ridiculous moustache twirling villian role. He could do it in his sleep.
Jenkins is the stand out if anyone. I don’t see Shannon getting in for this at all.October 18, 2017 at 1:14 pm #1202241805
Shannon and Spencer could definitely default as nominees in their categories.October 18, 2017 at 2:45 pm #1202241871
I don’t feel Mahershala Ali’s work in “Moonlight” so I think he has Michael Shannon’s Oscar. Shannon should win at least one in near future.October 18, 2017 at 3:35 pm #1202241914
I think Richard Jenkins stands a better shot than Michael Shannon for TSOW, while I don’t think either are in contention for the win.October 18, 2017 at 3:58 pm #1202241921
I don’t feel Mahershala Ali’s work in “Moonlight” so I think he has Michael Shannon’s Oscar. Shannon should win at least one in near future.
While I agree about Mahershala Ali, in my opinion that was Lucas Hedges’ Oscar by a longshot.
I liked Jeff Bridges the best, with Dev Patel a solid second.