BAFTA Predictions – includes long lists

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  • Andrew Pickett
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    #49248

     

    The BAFTA longlists will be released on Friday, here are my (probably miles off) predictions for the top 15:

     

    Film:
    The Artist

    Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

    The Descendants

    Hugo

    War Horse

    Drive

    Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows pt2

    The Ides of March

    Midnight in Paris

    The Tree of Life

    A Separation

    The Help

    Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

    Jane Eyre

    Senna (or Shame if docs aren’t allowed)
    ——————————————–
    Just missing out – Moneyball, We Need to Talk About Kevin, A Dangerous Method

    Actor:
    Jean Dujardin, The Artist

    George Clooney, The Descendants

    Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

    Michael Fassbender, Shame

    Ryan Gosling, Drive

    Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March

    Leonardo DiCaprio, J.Edgar

    Michael Shannon, Take Shelter

    Brad Pitt, Moneyball

    Brendan Gleeson, The Guard

    Jeremy Irvine, War Horse

    Michael Fassbender, A Dangerous Method

    Michael Fassbender, Jane Eyre

    Asa Butterfield, Hugo

    Peyman Moaadi, A Separation
    —————————————
    Just missing out – Thomas Horn, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, Paul Giamatti, Win Win, Peter Mullan, Tyrannosaur, Tom Cullen, Weekend

    Actress:
    Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
    Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

    Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin

    Olivia Colman, Tyrannosaur

    Viola Davis, The Help

    Felicity Jones, Like Crazy

    Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia

    Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea

    Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method

    Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene

    Mia Wasikowska, Jane Eyre

    Charlize Theron, Young Adult

    Leila Hatami, A Separation

    Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

    Emily Watson, Oranges and Sunshine
    —————————————————-
    Just missing out – Anna Paquin, Margaret, Michelle Yeoh, The Lady, Rebecca Hall, The Awakening, Charlotte Gainsbourg, Melancholia

    (Berenice Bejo, The Artist and Carey Mulligan, Drive might be put in the lead category

    Supp. Actor:
    Christopher Plummer, Beginners

    Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn

    Albert Brooks, Drive

    Benedict Cumberbatch, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

    Jim Broadbent, The Iron Lady

    George Clooney, The Ides of March

    Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method

    Ezra Miller, We Need to Talk About Kevin

    Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life

    Alan Rickman, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows pt2

    Colin Firth, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

    Tom Hardy, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

    Simon Russell Beale, The Deep Blue Sea

    Ben Kingsley, Hugo

    Corey Stoll, Midnight in Paris

    ——————————————- 

    Just missing out – Andy Serkis, The Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Chris O’Dowd, Bridesmaids, Sacha Baron Cohen, Hugo, Eddie Marsan, Tyrannosaur

    Supp. Actress:
    Berenice Bejo, The Artist

    Octavia Spencer, The Help

    Carey Mulligan, Shame

    Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

    Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus

    Jessica Chastain, The Help

    Carey Mulligan, Drive

    Jessica Chastain, The Tree of Life

    Emily Watson, War Horse

    Judi Dench, My Week with Marilyn

    Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids

    Helena Bonham Carter, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows pt2

    Kathy Burke, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

    Evan Rachel Wood, The Ides of March

    Sally Hawkins, Submarine
    ———————————-

    Just missing out – Kate Winslet, Carnage, Jodie Foster, Carnage, Jackie Weaver, Animal Kingdom, Sareh Bayat, A Separation

    Director:
    Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist

    Alexander Payne, The Descendants

    Tomas Alfredson, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

    Martin Scorsese, Hugo

    Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

    Steven Spielberg, War Horse

    Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive

    Asif Kapadia, Senna (if eligible)

    David Yates, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows pt2

    Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris

    George Clooney, The Ides of March

    David Cronenberg, A Dangerous Method

    Asghar Farhadi, A Separation

    Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

    Steve McQueen, Shame

    Lynne Ramsay, We Need to Talk About Kevin

    ———————————–
    Just missing out – Cary Fukunaga, Jane Eyre, Bennett Miller, Moneyball, Tate Taylor, The Help

     

     

    Reply
    TV12
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    #49250

    There is already a thread for this. Post these predictions there.

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    Andrew Pickett
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    #49251

    Here are the long lists:

    Best Film

    The Artist

    The Descendants

    Drive

    The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

    The Help

    Hugo

    The Ides of March

    The Iron Lady

    Midnight in Paris

    Moneyball

    My Week with Marilyn

    Senna

    Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

    War Horse

    We Need to Talk About Kevin

     

    Film Not in the English Language

    Abel

    As If I Am Not There

    The Boy Mir – Ten Years in Afghanistan

    Calvet

    Dhobi Ghat (Mumbai Diaries)

    Incendies

    Little White Lies

    Pina

    Post Mortem

    Potiche

    Le Quattro Volte

    A Separation

    The Skin I Live In

    Tomboy

    The Troll Hunter

     

    Outstanding British Film

    Arthur Christmas

    Attack the Block

    Coriolanus

    The Guard

    Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2

    The Iron Lady

    Jane Eyre

    My Week with Marilyn

    Senna

    Shame

    Submarine

    Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

    Tyrannosaur

    War Horse

    We Need to Talk About Kevin

     

    Director

    The Artist*

    The Descendants

    Drive*

    The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

    The Help

    Hugo*

    The Ides of March

    The Iron Lady

    J. Edgar

    Midnight in Paris

    Moneyball

    My Week with Marilyn

    Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy*

    War Horse

    We Need to Talk About Kevin*

     

    Original Screenplay

    50/50

    Anonymous

    Arthur Christmas

    The Artist*

    Beginners

    Bridesmaids*

    The Guard*

    The Iron Lady

    J. Edgar

    Midnight in Paris*

    Senna

    Shame

    Super 8

    Tyrannosaur

    Young Adult*

     

    Adapted Screenplay

    The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn

    Coriolanus

    The Descendants*

    Drive

    The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

    Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2

    The Help*

    Hugo

    The Ides of March*

    Jane Eyre

    Moneyball*

    My Week with Marilyn

    Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy*

    War Horse

    We Need to Talk About Kevin

     

    Cinematography

    The Artist*

    The Descendants

    Drive*

    The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo*

    Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2

    Hugo*

    The Ides of March

    J. Edgar

    Jane Eyre

    Midnight in Paris

    My Week with Marilyn

    Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy*

    The Tree of Life

    War Horse

    We Need to Talk About Kevin

     

    Editing

    The Artist*

    The Descendants

    Drive*

    The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

    Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2

    Hugo*

    The Ides of March

    The Iron Lady

    Midnight in Paris

    Moneyball

    My Week with Marilyn

    Senna*

    Tinker Tailor Solider Spy*

    War Horse

    We Need to Talk About Kevin

     

    Production Design

    Anonymous

    The Artist*

    Coriolanus

    Drive

    The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

    Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2*

    The Help

    Hugo*

    The Iron Lady

    J. Edgar

    Jane Eyre

    Midnight in Paris

    My Week with Marilyn

    Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy*

    War Horse*

     

    Make Up & Hair

    Anonymous

    The Artist*

    Bridesmaids

    Coriolanus

    The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

    Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2*

    The Help

    Hugo*

    The Iron Lady*

    J. Edgar

    Jane Eyre

    Midnight in Paris

    My Week with Marilyn*

    Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

    War Horse

     

    Costume Design

    Anonymous*

    The Artist*

    Coriolanus

    A Dangerous Method

    The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

    Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2

    The Help

    Hugo*

    The Iron Lady

    J. Edgar

    Jane Eyre*

    Midnight in Paris

    My Week with Marilyn*

    Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

    War Horse

     

    Special Visual Effects

    The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn*

    The Artist

    Captain America: The First Avenger

    The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

    Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2*

    Hugo*

    Midnight in Paris

    Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol

    Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

    Rise of the Planet of the Apes*

    Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows

    Super 8

    Transformers: Dark of the Moon*

    War Horse

    X-Men: First Class

     

    Documentary

    George Harrison: Living in the Material World

    Life in a Day

    Pina

    Project Nim

    Senna

     

    Sound

    The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn*

    The Artist

    Drive

    The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

    Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2*

    Hugo*

    The Iron Lady

    Midnight in Paris

    Moneyball

    My Week with Marilyn

    Senna

    Super 8

    Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy*

    War Horse*

    We Need to Talk About Kevin

     

    Original Music

    The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn*

    The Artist*

    Drive

    The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

    Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2

    The Help

    Hugo*

    The Ides of March

    The Iron Lady

    Jane Eyre

    Moneyball

    My Week with Marilyn

    Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy*

    War Horse*

    We Need to Talk About Kevin

     

    Animated Film

    The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn*

    Arthur Christmas*

    Gnomeo and Juliet

    Puss in Boots

    Rango*

     

    Leading Actor

    Antonio Banderas (Robert Ledgard) – The Skin I Live In

    Brad Pitt (Billy Beane) – Moneyball*

    Brendan Gleeson (Gerry Boyle) – The Guard

    Daniel Craig (Mikael Blomkvist) – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

    Eddie Redmayne (Colin Clark) – My Week with Marilyn

    Gary Oldman (George Smiley) – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy*

    George Clooney (Matt King) – The Descendants*

    Jean Dujardin (George Valentin) – The Artist*

    Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar Hoover) – J. Edgar

    Michael Fassbender (Brandon) – Shame*

    Owen Wilson (Gil) – Midnight in Paris

    Peter Mullan (Joseph) – Tyrannosaur

    Ralph Fiennes (Caius Martius Coriolanus) – Coriolanus

    Ryan Gosling (Driver) – Drive

    Ryan Gosling (Stephen Meyers) – The Ides of March

     

    Leading Actress

    Bérénice Bejo (Peppy Miller) – The Artist*

    Carey Mulligan (Sissy) – Shame

    Charlize Theron (Mavis Gary) – Young Adult

    Emma Stone (Skeeter Phelan) – The Help

    Helen Mirren (Rachel Singer) – The Debt

    Jodie Foster (Penelope Longstreet) – Carnage

    Kate Winslet (Nancy Cowan) – Carnage

    Kristen Wiig (Annie) – Bridesmaids

    Meryl Streep (Margaret Thatcher) – The Iron Lady*

    Mia Wasikowska (Jane Eyre) – Jane Eyre

    Michelle Williams (Marilyn Monroe) – My Week with Marilyn*

    Olivia Colman (Hannah) – Tyrannosaur

    Rooney Mara (Lisbeth Salander) – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

    Tilda Swinton (Eva) – We Need to Talk About Kevin*

    Viola Davis (Aibileen Clark) – The Help*

     

    Supporting Actor

    Alan Rickman (Prof. Severus Snape) – Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2

    Albert Brooks (Bernie Rose) – Drive

    Ben Kingsley (George Méliès) – Hugo

    Benedict Cumberbatch (Peter Guillam) – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

    Christopher Plummer (Hal) – Beginners*

    Colin Firth (Bill Haydon) – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

    Eddie Marsan (James) – Tyrannosaur*

    Ezra Miller (Kevin – Teenager) – We Need to Talk About Kevin

    George Clooney (Mike Morris) – The Ides of March

    Jim Broadbent (Denis Thatcher) – The Iron Lady

    John Hurt (Control) – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

    Jonah Hill (Peter Brand) – Moneyball*

    Kenneth Branagh (Sir Laurence Olivier) – My Week with Marilyn*

    Paul Giamatti (Tom Duffy) – The Ides of March

    Philip Seymour Hoffman (Paul Zara) – The Ides of March*

     

    Supporting Actress

    Alexandra Roach (Young Margaret Thatcher) – The Iron Lady

    Bryce Dallas Howard (Hilly Holbrook) – The Help*

    Carey Mulligan (Irene) – Drive

    Emily Watson (Rosie Narracott) – War Horse

    Evan Rachel Wood (Molly Steams) – The Ides of March

    Jessica Chastain (Celia Foote) – The Help*

    Judi Dench (Dame Sybil Thorndike) – My Week with Marilyn*

    Kathy Bates (Gertrude Stein) – Midnight in Paris

    Kathy Burke (Connie Sachs) – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

    Marion Cotillard (Adriana) – Midnight in Paris

    Melissa McCarthy (Megan) – Bridesmaids*

    Octavia Spencer (Minny Jackson) – The Help*

    Olivia Colman (Carol Thatcher) – The Iron Lady

    Shailene Woodley (Alexandra King) – The Descendants

    Zoe Wanamaker (Paula Strasberg) – My Week with Marilyn*

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    Novic
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    #49252

    I’m a little shocked Vanessa Redgrave didn’t make the longlist. So much for being a possible Oscar contender.

    No Harry Potter for Best Picture!

    The Tree of Life mostly snubbed! How does the Artist get into Visual Effects and The Tree of Life doesn’t!!!!

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    Andrew Pickett
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    #49253

    The Iron Lady did better than I though but that is probably because it is British. Moneyball and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo doing well are good signs for the Oscars, especially as the Swedish version of GWTDT did well at BAFTA last year.

    That’s about it for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close though – unless they never sent screeners like a few snubs in the past.

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    allabout oscars
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    #49254

    THE IRON LADY  was surprisingly in almost every category…including sup. actor (broadbent) and 2 sup. actresses
    (Roach and Colman)..of course its a british film and it is only the long list…but it still might bode well for the film in general…a few snubs  but lately the BAFTA’s have become totally predictable with most of the academy award nominees…check back years ago…
    BAFTA’s were wildly diffferent…

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    Nate
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    #49255

    For Leading Actor, Bichir is hurt most by being left off the longlist, but I really hope he can rally for an Oscar nod. But if Banderas and especially Oldman can make the shortlist, look for them to possibly rally to beat out pretty boys Fassbender and DiCaprio, who look like they need to make the shortlist to keep their Oscar nomination hopes strong, but I predict Clooney, DiCaprio, Dujardin, Oldman, and Pitt to be the shortlist lineup.

    For Leading Actress, I am loving that Bejo, Mulligan, and the Carnage ladies are all on the longlist, making this a very contentious category overall, even with Glenn Close being ineligible. Right now, I am guessing that the shortlist will be Bejo, Davis, Mara, Streep, and Williams, with Swinton missing the cut.

    For Supporting Actor, I am so glad to see my awards season long hopefuls Broadbent, Hoffman, and Kingsley all on the longlist, but they will each need to make the shortlist to contend for Oscar consideration. The ELAIC shoutout looks the worst for Von Sydow here, but Oscar screeners could change that. Right now, the shortlist looks to me like Branagh, Brooks, Hill, Plummer..and Rickman (just to keep things interesting).

    For Supporting Actress, I am most amazed at only one Chastain performance (they found room for two Gosling performances!) and no Redgrave (her Oscar chances should be officially done now), but this looks like really slim pickings compared to Lead, so I predict Chastain, McCarthy, Spencer, Watson and Woodley to make the shortlist.

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