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Ben Zauzmer’s annual math predictions

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  • Ghost
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    #143027

    Ben Zauzmer, the guy who predicted 75% correct in 2012 (including all major categories) and 81% last year (only missed Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay) has teamed up with The Hollywood Reporter once again to share his annual predictions. Today he’s sharing the big 6:

    http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/oscarlytics-gravity-alfonso-cuaron-lead-683154

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    endaugust
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    #143029

    His math is silly and superficial.

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    M H
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    #143030

    His math is silly and superficial.

    How so?  

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    Riley
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    #143031

    Nate Silver’s predictions last year had better math.

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    Benedick
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    #143032

    He doesn’t explain his math at all, his methodology, his formula, how much weight he gives to each, etc. Whatever it is, it does not seem very considered or comprehensive. Jennifer Lawrence with a 62% chance to win a second consecutive Oscar?

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    Troy
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    #143033

    The Jennifer Lawrence with 62% chance to win is enough to make me take this with a grain of salt.  And last year’s Oscar winners certainly weren’t that difficult to predict, so not really impressed with his accuracy there.

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    Scottferguson
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    #143034

    And he doesn’t include X factors, which are impossible to mathematically calculate.

    Does he include preferential voting for BP as a picture? That’s the most important single thing, not precursors.

    Does he include that rules and precedents are far less important when there are 3-4 solid contenders than when it is down to 2 way ahead of the others?

    Does he take into account the unusually long gap b/w earlier awards and the voting this year?

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    ColinWesley
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    #143035

    unlike elections there’s very little math can tell about the oscars. But if he does well more power to him. I will say that his success rate is at the very most no better than most of us who don’t use math to predict. His captain phillips prediction is rather interesting.

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    Manuel Colon
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    #143036

    The only reason why people don’t believe his math is because of Jennifer Lawrence?

    Seriously, she does have a big chance of winnig the Oscar. 

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    DominicCobb
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    #143037

    Well, the thing is that, mathematically speaking, there’s a low chance that an actor will win back to back Oscars. So that’s why the 62% is kind of questionable.

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    Jason Travis
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    #143038

    Jennifer Lawrence is in a very strong position to win- and the BAFTA proved this. Especially since she was competing against Lupita for the prize. I understand she lost the BAFTA the previous year, but still- it just seems like the race is very tight. I wouldn’t say she’s ahead in a 62% manner, but I will say my mouth won’t drop in shock if she prevails. I will be disappointed, but I’ll have alcohol in my system to help it not sting as much. She does have 2 scenes that have an impact on me – her bathroom confrontation, and her outdoor lunch session.

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    Riley
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    #143039

    The only reason why people don’t believe his math is because of Jennifer Lawrence?

    For me, I question how Gravity and American Hustle can be so far ahead of 12 Years a Slave.  I know that Gravity won the DGA, but 12 Years a Slave won everything else and the few things that it did not went to Her.

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    endaugust
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    #143040

    [quote=”endaugust”]His math is silly and superficial.

    How so?  [/quote]

    He mainly focuses on the DGA and PGA wins.  In this season, that is just barebone variables

    My math (accounting for all guilds, all televised awards, major critics groups, etc. – weighing their respective historical influences) came out something like this:

    Best Picture’s chance of winning.

    12YAS – 39-40%
    Gravity – 22-25%
    Hustle – 14-15% 

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    Sagand
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    #143041

    Any maths trying to analysis a situation with so many variables and such small data sets is silly and superficial.

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    Ghost
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    #143042

    Essentially his Captain Phillips for screenplay prediction is exactly the same as ZDT last year: predicting it because it won WGA.

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