Best Actor for Oscars

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  • Chris Beachum
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    #201258

    Time for an updated thread discussing Best Actor at the Oscars.

    GOLDEN GLOBES:
    Christian Bale, “The Big Short”
    Steve Carell, “The Big Short”
    Bryan Cranston, “Trumbo”
    Matt Damon, “The Martian”
    Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Revenant”
    Michael Fassbender, “Steve Jobs”
    Eddie Redmayne, “The Danish Girl”
    Will Smith, “Concussion”

    SAG AWARDS:
    Bryan Cranston, “Trumbo”
    Johnny Depp, “Black Mass”
    Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Revenant”
    Michael Fassbender, “Steve Jobs”
    Eddie Redmayne, “The Danish Girl”

    OTHER CONTENDERS:
    Michael Caine, “Youth”
    Tom Courtenay, “45 Years”
    Tom Hanks, “Bridge of Spies”
    Samuel L. Jackson, “The Hateful Eight”
    Michael B. Jordan, “Creed”
    Ian McKellen, “Mr. Holmes”
    Geza Rohrig, “Son of Saul”
    Jason Segel, “The End of the Tour”

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    Tony Ruiz
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    #201260

    Right now, the sure money is on these four:

    Cranston
    Dicaprio
    Fassbender
    Redmayne

    But that fifth slot is a tricky one! I think it will most likely be Damon, but I could see a scenario where Jordan, Smith, or Mckellan get in.

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    Carlo
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    #201261

    Bryan Cranston
    Matt Damon
    Leonardo Di Caprio
    Michael Fassebender
    Eddie Redmayne

    Di Caprio is locked for the win this year. 

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    ziggy
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    #201262

    DiCaprio
    Fassbender
    Redmayne
    Damon
    Depp

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    manakamana
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    #201263

    I, like many others, had presumed that Cranston would be an explainable possibility but ultimately squeezed out in this field. And it doesn’t help that televisual would be too kind to describe the film around him, he had been turning in solid work in small films on the Academy’s radar from Drive to Argo aside from the obvious exposure and respect he got for Breaking Bad. So I’d add him to the otherwise solid-seeming group of DiCaprio, Fassbender, and Redmayne. As for the last slot, they could go for Matt Damon but it seems weird that he nor his film could make a splash at SAG being as visible as it is. I would LOVE for Géza Röhrig to make it in, but it doesn’t seem like the critics have decided to champion that movie in the way they maybe need to for him to make a splash. Also, if they’re watching 99 Homes for Shannon then surely they can see that Garfield is as good as anyone in this conversation. 

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    Goran CRO
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    #201264

    The Big Short is raising as we can see. After these last few days Paramount will campaign even more for the movie… Can we see Bale and Carell nominated?

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    Damian Pietrzak
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    #201265

    1. Leonardo DiCaprio – “The Revenant”
    2. Michael Fassbender – “Steve Jobs”
    3. Eddie Redmayne – “The Danish Girl”
    4. Bryan Cranston – “Trumbo”
    5. Matt Damon – “The Martian”

    6. Johnny Depp – “Black Mass”
    7. Will Smith – “Concussion”
    8. Ian McKellen – “Mr. Holmes”

    Leo is in great shape. Locked and loaded. Need to win SAG because he never won before like oscar…but Won Boston. 3rd in LA i think (saw tweets) SAG nom, Globes nom..So Redmayne won last year. Damon and Depp no longer threat and Fassbender is not winning oscar before Leo. no way. Be ready for the longest standing ovation in years at oscars

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    Jason Travis
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    #201266

    BEST ACTOR PREDICTIONS, December 10th
    ________________________________________________

    Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
    Matt Damon, The Martian
    Johnny Depp, Black Mass
    Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
    Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

    Earlier I felt Best Actress was more challenging, but the more I think about it- the more I think Best Actor is a wide open rat race.

    Let’s start with who I think is locked and loaded- DiCpario and Fassbender are the only ones I feel secure with. I think it’s finally Leo’s year (though mumbling that he “doesn’t talk a lot” could have effect since being Subtle is not always wise to win the golden boy). Fassbender took an unlikable character and brought intrigue to him, and he actually is Leo’s biggest competitor should he win the Drama Globe.

    Cranston- he came way out of left field with that SAG nomination Wednesday, and then we realized he’s in a movie ABOUT the industry, and is a beloved TV character and Emmy award winner. He’s brilliant all around, strong homage to character performing over all, and also will easily appeal to older voters who appreciate men over 50 competing with younger blood. Remember it’s also hard to win an Oscar if you’re “Too Pretty” as a Boy, so it’s a good thing Leo donned a beard for his movie and looks rugged (Matthew McConaughey just had to look like a skeleton).

    Damon’s movie will easily earn many Oscar nods and he is 80% certain in my book to win the Golden Globe. Unlike Jennifer Lawrence (who also is very certain to win her category), Damon’s film is a formidable contender in many other races. It was mostly his show the entire time and he kept us entertained; there is also some emotional pat to go along with his comical timing; and no, The Martian is still not a comedy to me.

    Which leaves us with one slot left. Who is it gonna be? Depp got in with SAG, but missed the Globe- and the latter usually goes for him. So was the SAG a fluke or is he really deserving (haven’t seen it). Bale seems likely since he ALSO made it in for Best Actor at the Globes, and Supporting with SAG. My gut says vote splitting with his costars will give him the egde for a supporting Oscar nod. Caine and McKellen could take the “old man” spot, but their movies aren’t picking up as much juice as we would have anticipated. I thought Michael B. Jordan was going to make SAG/Globe but he got neither. So much for that dream (he needed one of them). Will Smith? Globe said yes, SAG no. Not sure yet. He’s def competitive though- and if the film does well and he’s in the spotlight for those crucial voting weeks, he could squeeze a slot. Which leaves me with Eddie Redmayne- who would look like a likely contender because he got the SAG/Globe combo. BUT many in the past have done this and NOT gotten in with Oscar. And I dont know if The Danish Girl is going to be as hot with Oscar voters, or only with his lovely costar. He just won last year (which helps and can be overkill) and is he going to land passion votes that Johnny Depp certainly will since he hasn’t been to the party for a while, and many might be pysched to get him back.

    This is a tough one. That’s my shortlist for now.

    OTHER CONTENDERS:
    Christian Bale, “The Big Short”
    Michael Caine, “Youth”
    Michael B. Jordan, “Creed”
    Ian McKellen, “Mr. Holmes”
    Eddie Redmayne, “The Danish Girl”
    Will Smith, “Concussion”

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    FilmGuy619
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    #201267

    My predictions post-Globe/SAG:

    Matt Damon, The Martian
    Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
    Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
    Tom Hardy, Legend 
    Michael B. Jordan, Creed

    I’ll get to why I’m predicting Hardy shortly. While Bryan Cranston and Eddie Redmayne have landed Globe and SAG nominations, those haven’t always equaled guarantees comes nomination day. The Danish Girl’s buzz is flatlining and Redmayne’s co-star has nabbed more MVP notices. Also, Redmayne just won so there might not be this urgency to include him again. While Cranston may have collected plenty of hardware for television, there is always this bias against TV actors like Jennifer Aniston, Mila Kunis, and Shailene Woodley who were known for their work on TV yet ended up getting Oscar snubbed and Cranston might be seen as more of a television actor. SAG nom or no SAG nom, I’m not buying Depp at all. Simple because the performance doesn’t have a wow factor, makeup transformation aside. ‘m not seeing Will Smith either. Ian McKellen and Michael Caine don’t seem to be lighting much fireworks either.

    But Creed is playing very well in a much more timely release, both critically and financially. So if there is strong buzz for Sly Stallone, then we might see Michael B. Jordan get pulled along for the ride. There is also the whole controversy over having all white actors nominated last year. So they could nominate Jordan to save face with that and also because the performance is very good. Now onto Tom Hardy. I may seem crazy predicting he’ll get in for a mixed-reviewed British gangster film. But we’ve seen plenty of momentum for both Mad Max and The Revenant and he’s in both. But because Best Supporting Actor is so packed, meaning he might not get in for The Revenant, and because his performance in Mad Max is too internalized, they may want to recognize him somewhere. It helps that he has already collected hardware for his performance thanks to his BIFA win and because he plays real-life twins, it gives him two big roles to chew on. 

    In terms of who will win, though, I think it’s definitely between DiCaprio and Fassbender. DiCaprio has got the “It’s his time” thing going for him and Fassbender is helped by the fact that his performance is big. He spews out juicy monologue after juicy monologue, speaks non stop, and is in it from beginning to end. So the film lives and dies by his performance.  

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    manakamana
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    #201268

    Indulge your fantasies of a Redmayne snub at your own peril. He has more than enough ingredients to ensure a spot among the top 3 in this category.

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    Cheshire
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    #201269

    My predictions:
    Bryan Cranston- Trumbo
    Johnny Depp- Black Mass
    Leonardo DiCaprio- The Revenant
    Michael Fassbender- Steve Jobs
    Eddie Redmayne- The Danish Girl

    SAG has academy members so I won’t be surprised to see a simular list. So does the BAFTA membership so I’ll curious to see who they select. I’m not so sure who’s at number 1 so it’s anyone’s game.

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    clay bryce
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    #201270

    I think the Globes Best Actor Drama lineup will match with Oscar.

    Cranston

    Fassbender – (actors are going to reward him with a nod to make up for the unnecessary blame The Hollywood Reporter & Variety placed on him for the movie’s box office failure.) 

    DiCaprio

    Redmayne

    Smith

    Johnny Depp does NOT deserve to be here.  Neither does Matt Damon or Michael Keaton.  The three of them, in their respective films, did not do Oscar-quality work. In my eyes anyway.      

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    MrGoodWood
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    #201271

    DiCaprio
    Fassbender
    Cranston
    Redmayne

    And it’s a bloodbath for the fifth slot.

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    thatfilmgirl
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    #201272

    DiCaprio, Fassbender and Redmayne seem pretty much locked in here. The last two slots are definitely going to be interesting to predict for the next few weeks. I’m still not sold on Depp, Damon or Cranston making it all the way to the Oscars, but they definitely have a shot. Like FilmGuy619, I also feel liek Tom Hardy could potentially sneak in here for Legend. Maybe it’s just wishful thinking, but I feel like anything could happen for slots 4 and 5. 

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    Monty
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    #201273

    1. Leonardo DiCaprio – “The Revenant”
    2. Michael Fassbender – “Steve Jobs”
    3. Eddie Redmayne – “The Danish Girl”
    4. Bryan Cranston – “Trumbo”
    5. Matt Damon – “The Martian”

    6. Johnny Depp – “Black Mass”
    7. Will Smith – “Concussion”
    8. Ian McKellen – “Mr. Holmes”

    Leo is in great shape. Locked and loaded. Need to win SAG because he never won before like oscar…but Won Boston. 3rd in LA i think (saw tweets) SAG nom, Globes nom..So Redmayne won last year. Damon and Depp no longer threat and Fassbender is not winning oscar before Leo. no way. Be ready for the longest standing ovation in years at oscars

    If he is really so much respect among his peers, he should have got the Oscar way earlier. He deserve a long standing ovation but I doubt his standing ovation would be longer than Meryl’s win for thr Iron Lady.

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