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Best Actress 2017-2018 Open Thread (for Academy Awards, Golden Globes, SAG, etc)

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  • Alberto Dlano-Cox
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    #1202221410

    Hey everybody! New member, longtime lurker.

    I’m starting this post to have a discussion hub on Who Should and the Who Will for the Best Actress (Lead) category, and to streamline it, let’s do the nominations for the Golden Globes, SAG and Academy Awards (film, obviously). For the third year running, this category is going to be PPV worthy.

    And now for some “ground rules” on trying for accuracy:

    1- Your stanning is not the same as what these award organizations really go for. It’s natural to mix these up, but be neutral. We all in our hearts are rooting for that cult indie actress who can do no wrong, but the awards bodies are very much innercia driven.

    2- If the movie has caught zero traction or mixed acclaim, or if it played too early in the year, lower your bet on whatever great performance the lead actress gave getting recognized.

    3- No fucking bigotry, duh.

    4- No fucking sexism. Gets its own separate point because it female actors we’re talking here, that’s like a magnet for dickbags.

    5- However, you’re very much invited to make a case with arguments why you hate this or that performer’s acting (and viceversa, duh) or think she’s overrated.

    Get on it.

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    Alberto Dlano-Cox
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    #1202221447

    For my predictions, Imma do it with the names in contention (notice I haven’t seen any of these movies yet because I’m in Chile and they arrive only by early January #atleastitssummer):

    Frances McDormand, Three Billboards: Yeah, this one seems a lock. However, for the Oscars, don’t underestimate the incapacity of the Academy’s old geezers of connecting with the McDonagh’s brothers’ brilliance, they might snub her nod. Don’t think she’ll win though. She’s going straight to the Comedy Best Actress GG.

    Jessica Chastain, Molly`s Game:</em> Very likely nomination, but I think it’ll depend on the popular reception to the movie. If it fizzles at the BO, so will her chances. However, I see her flying high if she gets the nod, because of this movie being the more “conventional” of all proposals… and she’s overdue (cough2012Oscarscough)

    <strong>Glenn Close</strong>, <em>The Wife:</em> I’m predicting this one will not be released this year.

    <strong>Emma Stone</strong>, <em>Battle of the Sexes: </em>Seems a likely lock too if the movie is even mildly successful, but Fox Searchlight might be managing <em>three</em> potential best actress nominations. Can they do it? Or will they focus their efforts on the more challenging sales? This one is flying straight to the Comedy Best Actress at the GGs.

    <strong>Sally Hawkins</strong>, <em>The Shape of Water: </em>This one is a lock… except for one thing, don’t be surprised if she becomes a shocking snub. The awards bodies (particularly the Oscars) have a notoriousy shitty track record in recognizing sci-fi and fantasy (“that’s kids stuff!” the old farts probably say). Also, you know, the Oscars snubbed her AFTER WINNING THE GG FOR BEST COMEDY ACTRESS FOR <em>HAPPY GO LUCKY.</em> I think there are some brilliant actresses who the old farts at the Academy seem to have a hatred for, like Glen Close. It’s like they love to deprive them of their rightfully earned plaudits. I’m afraid Sally too might be the kind of brilliant, subtle actress who the Academy neglects for some reason. I’ll leave my theories for later. Still, I wanna have faith. Just from the trailer she knocked it out of the park. For the same reasons, I don’t think she’ll win in the end, which is a pity.

    <strong>Saoirse Ronan</strong>, <em>Lady Bird</em>: Full disclosure: I’m a massive stan of hers (#ISAWHERFIRST!). I think she’s woefully underrated even considering she’s gunning for her third Oscar nod. At age 23. I think she’s simply the best actress of the Millenial generation. I think she’s the true heir in the Katharine-Meryl-Cate artistic family tree. That being said… it’s also a very likely nod. But, it’s also a very risky run: It’s still an indie, about a normal coming of age experience, and we all know the old farts at the Academy favour Very Important Life Experiences and Yelling Suffering. Saoirse has been mastering the powers of subtlety for the better part of a decade. Her chances are good on critical acclaim alone, however, any degree of BO success will come a long way in helping her forward. A24 is moving this one along with <em>Disaster Artist</em> and <em>Florida Project</em>, and I have a lot of faith in their game, but what if it’s too much on their plate? Some deserving nods might get lost in the mix. Also flying straight to the Comedy GG’s and I thin it’s between her and Frances for the win.

    <strong>Jennifer Lawrence</strong>, <em>mother</em>!: This one was DOA. And I could see it from weeks away, before the reviews came in, before the BO flop. Even if it had worked, it was too much of a weird proposal, too bold. And the old farts at the Academy and at the HFPA only want to see JLaw in one role: Plucky Strong-Independent-Womaaan Heroine Who Triumphs Against Adversity. There’s a whole discussion to be had on whether Jennifer Lawrence is… well, worthy of the acclaim she’s gotten, but it’s certain this was not the kind of movie and role that would be in any awards bodies’ radar.

    <strong>Michelle Williams</strong>, <em>All the Money in the World</em>: Just one question, how much traction si this movie getting? I read movie blogs daily and I was aware of this movie, but was not aware that it was coming on December. It’s by Ridley Scott, who has been more miss than hit as of lately… and it’ll be hard to get people talking about anything in December that is not <em>Last Jedi</em>. Doesn’t look like a contender. She could get a nod at the Drama GGs.

    <strong>Judi Dench</strong>, <em>Victoria and Abdul</em>: I said something about award bodies working on innercia before. Reception on this movie has been mixed, not for Judi’s performance, of course. There’s also the whole issue of the movie avoiding painting British imperialism in all its true colours. That being said, innercia. It might be one of Judi’s last roles, it’s a British period piece, it’s about a queen… this one is flying straight to the nod and likely to the win.

    <strong>Rosamund Pike</strong>, <em>Hostiles</em>: Did they managed to get a distributor? Whatever, reception was mixed and it’s too late in the game. Count it out.

    <strong>Annette Bening</strong>, <em>Film Stars Don`t Die: Speaking of actresses the Academy seems to despise for no reason. This one is up to the BO success, and I think it might get caught up in the din of all the other interesting stuff that is coming out. I think she will get the nod, but not the prize.

    Nicole Kidman, The Beguiled: The movie came out too early in the game, and though well received, it doesn’t seem that it left a mark. Though according to the law of innercia, the fact that Kidman is in a prestige period drama might be enough for the voters to put her in the running. But also, Focus Features has two stronger contenders in Dench and Ronan.

    Florence Pugh, Lady Macbeth: Also an indie that came too early in the game. Look up for it in the indie awards, but this is exactly the kind of movie that the old farts at the awards bodies don’t even bother watching.

    Salma Hayek, Beatriz at Dinner: Also a case of an indie coming too early in the game to make a blip.

    Carey Mulligan, Mudbound: This one is pending, and I have a feeling she will be in the run for a Supporting nod, but not as category fraud. Probably the same situation for Tatiana Maslany in Stronger

    Also, for similar reasons, count out Rachel Weisz in Cousin Rachel and Claire Foy in Breathe (that’s one movie that looks disgustingly Oscar-baity as you can get). Margot Robbie in I, Tonya, though acclaimed, seems to be in a much too envelope-pushing movie to be in the old farts’ radar.

    But wait, did I forgot Meryl for The Post? Should they just go for it and write in the Californian Code to nominate her every time she’s in a movie? Will she even care to make the awards round? I’ll leave her out for now, awards bodies’ innercia be damned. She is shooting straight for the Dramma GG though.

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    PJ Edwards
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    #1202222032

    LOL @ not predicting Meryl Streep in a Speilberg movie. Like that’s the easiest prediction to make. And Judi Dench is not winning on this planet or any other.

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    Andrew Carden
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    #1202222057

    At this point, I like Stone, McDormand, Hawkins, Chastain and Winslet, in that order, with Streep, Bening, Ronan, Close and Dench rounding out the top 10 (and Robbie and Vega not terribly far behind). No one is an Oldman-level shoo-in, though.

    OSCAR FLASHBACK: Nicholson at the Oscars (1985) – Prizzi’s Honor

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    Bee
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    #1202222067

    Wtf @ this thread. Who are you to be making ground rules? And I see this trying of Meryl again. She’s already nominated and y’all should have been accepted that.

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    TheRedBoy
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    #1202222069

    1. Sally Hawkins, a FRONTRUNNER

    2. Meryl Streep, practically obligatory—to say nothing of the benefit of working with Spielberg

    3. Frances McDormand, seems to have some of the strongest hype and best reviews at this point

    4. Judi Dench, playing a queen is always a safe bet, and Dench has twice been nominated in this category for her work with Stephen Frears (who also won Mirren an Oscar for playing queen).

    The fifth slot is trickiest to predict, but…

    1. Saoirse Ronan, there’s always a young star in the line up (and they’ve won half of the past 6 trophies). Ronan seems like a strong contender, even if her film doesn’t have the ensemble of Silver Linings Playbook or the acclaim/hype of La La Land.

    2. Jessica Chastain, a great actress with great reviews and a performance more conventionally Oscar-baity than some of the other contenders in the line up.

    3. Kate Winslet, doesn’t seem to have as much hype as I’d honestly expected, but Woody Allen recently directed the other (superior) Cate to her second Oscar win and could do the same for Winslet.

    4. Glenn Close, an unawarded veteran, who would be higher in my rankings in a weaker year. Still, she could easily pull through if the film releases in time and other contenders don’t stick their landings.

    5. Annette Bening, another unawarded veteran who couldn’t manage a nomination in last year’s slightly less competitive field. I don’t see it for her this year, either.

    6. Emma Stone, since 1975 only Fonda, Streep, and Thompson have been nominated in this category in the year immediately after they won it. Will Stone be the first in over two decades to manage this? My magic 8 ball says no.

    I don’t feel that anyone else is a serious contender at this point.

    I think that Hawkins will take this race all the way to the win. Not only is she the frontrunner in her own right, but she’ll likely also benefit from most of the line up consisting of past winners.

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    ENGLAND
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    #1202222090

    If Glenn’s film gets proper independent releade, it’s hers. If not, it’s Meryl’s.

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    Alberto Dlano-Cox
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    #1202223060

    Here’s the thing about Winslet. I doubt her run will go all the way to a nod precisely for the reasons everyone claims it’s a shoo-in: It’s a movie by Woody Allen. And sure, acting in his movies has been pretty rewarding historically… but his last three movies (and Amazon series) have not been that well received. Surely they were good runs for the cast ofVicky Cristina Barcelona and Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine, but that’s as good as it got (for the cast) in his last 16 movies.

    Then there’s the issue that Winslet’s romantic interest an costar is Justin Timberlake. I’m gonna bet his performance will mostly draw irritation from the critics.

    And finally, of course, and whether one likes it or not, the accusations and scandals that have plagued Allen’s last few years will weight heavily on the campaign conversation (and I am firmly in the camp “yeah, he’s a creep at best”), even more now than before.

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    Alberto Dlano-Cox
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    But do you think it’s getting released this year/awards cycle? I feel like the field is crowded even in less competitive categories than this one, this movie could end up flying under the radar despite its best efforts. If I were an indie distributor, I’d hold it for next year.

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    Herioldi
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    #1202223107

    Winslet is getting nominated, come on.  People who’ve seen Wonder Wheel are saying it has one of her greatest performances, and big-name actors/actresses in Woody films don’t get snubbed with that kind of positive ink (Blanchett, Penn, etc.) when they’re already as beloved to AMPAS as Winslet is.  If it were Rachel Weisz with the same reviews/reception, it’d be up in the air.  But Winslet is as prestigious to the Academy as any actress after Meryl.

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    Robert Russaw
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    #1202223120

    This category has about 10 actresses who could be nominated and no matter what 5, it seems the rest of the 5 could have their own strong category; it’s a year when you wish there could be 10 nominees. For now (and I expect it to change), I’m predicting Hawkins, McDormand, Winslet, Streep, and Robbie, with Bening, Chastain, and Ronan not far behind.

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    TheRedBoy
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    #1202223185

    And finally, of course, and whether one likes it or not, the accusations and scandals that have plagued Allen’s last few years will weight heavily on the campaign conversation (and I am firmly in the camp “yeah, he’s a creep at best”), even more now than before.

    I’m not sure that this will effect Winslet’s chances at a nomination. Scandal didn’t stop Mel Gibson and Casey Affleck from being nominated / winning last year, and they were the ones at the center of their respective scandals; Kate just worked with someone scandalous.

    I’d say that Allen’s scandal would have more of an effect in Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Screenplay, but this film doesn’t seem to be a strong contender in any of those categories at this point anyways.

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    Eddy Q
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    #1202224213

    Then there’s the issue that Winslet’s romantic interest an costar is Justin Timberlake. I’m gonna bet his performance will mostly draw irritation from the critics.

    Timberlake had prominent roles in two of the most highly acclaimed films of the decade (which is two more than Meryl Streep lol) and drew barely a smidgen of irritation from critics.

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    EvaSofie
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    #1202224321

    Then there’s the issue that Winslet’s romantic interest an costar is Justin Timberlake. I’m gonna bet his performance will mostly draw irritation from the critics.

    Timberlake had prominent roles in two of the most highly acclaimed films of the decade (which is two more than Meryl Streep lol) and drew barely a smidgen of irritation from critics.

    Uh, Doubt….

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    Alberto Dlano-Cox
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    #1202224573

    And finally, of course, and whether one likes it or not, the accusations and scandals that have plagued Allen’s last few years will weight heavily on the campaign conversation (and I am firmly in the camp “yeah, he’s a creep at best”), even more now than before.

    I’m not sure that this will effect Winslet’s chances at a nomination. Scandal didn’t stop Mel Gibson and Casey Affleck from being nominated / winning last year, and they were the ones at the center of their respective scandals; Kate just worked with someone scandalous. I’d say that Allen’s scandal would have more of an effect in Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Screenplay, but this film doesn’t seem to be a strong contender in any of those categories at this point anyways.

     

    That’s actually a very good point. I’m still of the opinion that the backlash against Allen will only increase, but if anyone’s in a position to pull a Cate Blanchett, it’s Winslet. The GG nod for Comedy Actress is assured, of course.

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