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BEST ACTRESS – Part 5 (of 6?7?8?)

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  • Scottferguson
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    #55414

    From the end of the last thread:

    I am beginning to veer toward calling this race a toss up, or even Streep the slight favorite.

    Why?

    1) Davis (like Dujardin) might have overdone the campaiging
    2)
    The whole racial card undercurrent might cause some backlash – there
    have been a number of black acting winners over the last decade, and
    anyway….
    3) Spencer likely wins (see under Murphy not winning with Hudson and Whitaker winning that year)
    4) Davis’ smaller role (see under Bullock beating Streep when Streep was in her film only about half the time)
    5) Some members not wanting to do the overall anticipated in some categories
    6) Streep’s going to win sometime; why not just get it over with?
    7)
    Streep’s performance, whatever its merit, being the kind that wins (in
    other words, she acts with a capital A, which often helps)
    8) Streep has acted like she wants it this time around

    I
    could probably come up with as many in Davis’ favor, but these are the
    ones that for me make it seem like a possible toss-up

    Reply
    Scottferguson
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    #55416

    Seany replied (#500 of the last thread):

    Streep is the wrong age and has two oscars already plus harvey screwed
    up by sending that email reminding the voters that she already has
    oscars when the majority of the academy members have never won one. Oh
    and nobody gives a damn about Margaret Tatcher this side of the pond
    anyway.

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    Miss Frost
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    #55417

    Well SF if you start following logic, I think you very well be right.

    You did in fact predict that Swinton wasn’t a lock for a Best Actress nomination, and that Gary Oldman would make the final lineup. Aspects nobody on this board were expecting.

    Your Streep assessment may very well come true.

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    streepfan
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    #55418

    From the end of the last thread:

    I am beginning to veer toward calling this race a toss up, or even Streep the slight favorite.

    Why?

    1) Davis (like Dujardin) might have overdone the campaiging   – YES, TO ME THE LAST STRAW WAS THAT DRESS SHE WORE AT THE NAACP
    2) The whole racial card undercurrent might cause some backlash – there have been a number of black acting winners over the last decade, and anyway….INTERESTING, BUT STILL ONE LEAD ACTRESS SO FAR
    3) Spencer likely wins (see under Murphy not winning with Hudson and Whitaker winning that year)
    4) Spencer’s smaller role (see under Bullock beating Streep when Streep was in her film only about half the time)  YOU MEAN DAVIS’ SMALLER ROLE? PEOPLE BRING UP HOPKINS, BUT THEY FORGET THEY’RE COMPARING SILENCE OF THE LAMBS WITH THE HELP
    5) Some members not wanting to do the overall anticipated in some categories  THAT’S THE FEELING I’M GETTING
    6) Streep’s going to win sometime; why not just get it over with?  WELL, THERE’S ALWAYS AUGUST OSAGE COUNTY
    7) Streep’s performance, whatever its merit, being the kind that wins (in other words, she acts with a capital A, which often helps) YES, CAPITAL A FOR AGING, ALZHEIMER, ANGLOPHILE AND WITH AN ACCENT
    8) Streep has acted like she wants it this time around NOT AT THE BAFTAS AND THE GG, WHEN SHE THREW A ‘I’M SORRY’ LOOK BOTH TIMES TO DAVIS AFTER HER NAME WAS ANNOUNCED

    SF, Is this purely your feeling, any evidence of this from the ground?

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    Scottferguson
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    #55419

    Haven’t done any recent polling of member friends, which at this point can be misleading.

    This is more just instinct/feeling

    I’m not predicting she’ll win. I’m saying it’s 50/50

    I wouldn’t be surprised to hear more of this from others in the next few days

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    Logan
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    #55420

    You did in fact predict that Swinton wasn’t a lock for a Best Actress nomination, and that Gary Oldman would make the final lineup. Aspects nobody on this board were expecting.

    Even though Swinton had a lot of precursor attention, I don’t think she should have ever been considered a lock (the events in the film are uncomfortable for, I’m guessing, a lot of members).

    Oldman wasn’t a shock (BAFTA support was very high, and he’s been around long enough to get support as a veteran – the latter being more important a reason).  

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    Scottferguson
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    #55421

    By nomination morning, both developments were considered possibilities.

    I think I was ahead of the curve on both in suggesting they were quite possible; also that both Fassbender and Brooks were iffy.
    But not alone on any of those.

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    montana82
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    #55422

    Reasons given above for why Viola may have overdone it and the voters may punish her as a result are why I can barely take this whole thing seriously anymore.

    Viola over did the campaigning?  When I watched her honest and heartfelt interview with Oprah on OWN, I saw atleast 4 commercials from the Weinstein Company with Thelma Adams “It’s been 29 years since Meryl Streep won an Oscar…”.  It was borderline obnoxious.

    Quite frankly if anything has annoyed me this season, I would say Meryl’s fake shock whenever she wins an award and the stunts she pulls when she accepts them (on no I forgot my speech!, her shoe mysteriously slipping off as she walks on stage etc) were more off putting.  And if your right that she has shown she wants it to this time, I’d call it even more off putting seeing she is head to head against her Doubt co star who clearly could benefit a hell of a alot more from a Best Actress win than Streep who gets every prime role for women her age.

    And the dress she wore at the NAACP was the last straw?  What the heck does that mean?  Maybe we should “teach her a lesson” like Jeff Wells wanted to do to Mo’Nique.  That will show her!

    Glad this thing will be over Sunday. 

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    Scottferguson
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    #55423

    For the record, I don’t think Davis has overdone it. I’m saying if that perception is out there, it could hurt her.

    She didn’t get to Terence Howard’s “if a car wash is opening in LA I’m there level,” and she has done no more than Dujardin (maybe even less). And certainly it didn’t hurt Leo last year.

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    streepfan
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    #55424

    Montana, I’m giving my opinion, no need to be rough.  Personally, I have nothing to gain if Streep wins.  I don’t understnad why some are investing so much of their emotions into this.  These actors earn for 1 picture, more than we can ever earn in our lifetime, so simmer down.

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    Jason Travis
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    #55425

    For those saying they don’t want Streep to win because they feel she should win for “a different kind of role….the right kind of role…” what about Viola Davis? Must we award another African-American actress an Oscar for playing a stereotypical maid/slave/poverty stricken? Hasn’t THIS been done enough? It would be nice to wait to award a black woman an Oscar for a role that actually sheds positive light on black women and not the stereotypes we always seen rewarded. I’ve seen black male actors given Oscars for more positive roles, but not black women. The closeset to a postive non-stereotype was, in my opinion, Whoopi Goldberg in Ghost- but even that could have detractors that think she was just being the “funny black comic relief woman”, even though I didn’t see it that way. I’m not saying Davis shouldn’t win because of this (I personally feel she was supporting in The Help and didn’t stretch enough for it), I’m just saying its good to look at this from both sides. 

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    dannyboy.
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    #55426

    Its not the role, though Jason T, its the performance. The fact that she is playing a maid is a part of history though I don’t like the white-hero to the rescue recent Best Actress winning film(s) any more than (I suspect) you do. Hollywood loves her and her performance. Viola Davis isn’t my preference she is my prediction. Would be super happy for Glenn Close to come out of nowhere but I would cast my vote for Michelle Williams (Tilda Swinton).

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    musicreloaded
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    #55427

    Meryl Streep is doing an acting master class in TIL, Meryl Streep deserves the OSCAR, she has the best performance of the year and one of her best performances of all time.

    Haters stay mad and pressed. 

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    Scottferguson
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    #55428

    Sorry, but for me hers was an incomplete performance, one that screamed acting and technique and sure a lot of skill, but never for me gave me a sense about the person she was playing. At every moment, my every thought was “there’s Meryl Streep impersonating Margaret Thatcher,” not “here’s Margaret Thatcher,” which a successful performance should do. It’s not her fault of course, she did the best she could, and then some, but to me, it’s not Oscar worthy.

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    montana82
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    #55429

    For the record, I don’t think Davis has overdone it. I’m saying if that perception is out there, it could hurt her.

    She didn’t get to Terence Howard’s “if a car wash is opening in LA I’m there level,” and she has done no more than Dujardin (maybe even less). And certainly it didn’t hurt Leo last year.

    I would agree.  But I also think Viola has helped her cause doing a lot of interviews.  Her interviews with Tavis Smiley and Oprah were fantastic. The race is very close and Weinstein/Streep are working it so she can’t just sit at home and not fight for it.

    Even though I want Viola to win, I am shocked the experts are all saying she will win.  Anne Thompson and Kris Tapley think it’s Viola’s.  So does Dave Karger.  Scott Feinberg tweeted  he hears a lot of votes for The Help for Best Picture and might predict it if he got more nominations. They all speak to Oscar voters so who knows.  Tom O’Neill said in the chat thisr week that if he hears one more Streep vote he is changing his vote to her.  I still think Streep will win it though in the end.  It usually goes to the loudest performance. And the last character actress to win Best Actress was who? Frances McDormand? 

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