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Best chance to upset

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  • Moviebuff22
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    #214661

    In each category, what actor has the best chance to supplant the favorites?

    For me, I believe it’s Matt Damon in lead, Tom Hardy in supporting, Ronan and Mara in the actress categories.

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    FilmGuy619
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    #214663

    Tom Hardy in Supporting. I’d say watch out for Hardy. He’s having a huge year with Mad Max and The Revenant, the performance is big and showy (twangy accent, talking nonstop, and since Leonardo DiCaprio is likely to win Best Actor, it’s not hard to imagine Hardy coattailing his way to a win. Also, as the previous winner in this category, J.K. Simmons, will tell you, Supporting Actor loves a good villain. 

    So, if anyone is a threat to Stallone, it’s Hardy. Rylance’s performance is too passive, Bale already won, and Ruffalo missed out on key nominations (SAG in particular). Hardy missed SAG as well, but he’s not only got the showy performance but again, the banner year with the films with the most nominations as well as his unnominated dual performance in Legend and Best Actor to coattail off of. Ruffalo doesn’t have the latter two things.

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    Volcarocka
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    #214664

    Rooney Mara could upset Vikander, and Rylance or Hardy could upset Stallone. The thing about surprise nominations (Hardy) is that voters have already shown that they liked the performances more than we’d thought, so it’s hard to predict. Also, Fassbender upsetting DiCaprio is more likely than a lot of people want to think. I personally favor Leo’s performance, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Fassbender won. Larson has Actress locked down, but if anyone were to upset it’d be Ronan or Rampling.

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    Andrew Carden
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    #214665

    Damon, Ronan, Ruffalo and Winslet

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    Moviebuff22
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    #214666

    Rooney Mara could upset Vikander, and Rylance or Hardy could upset Stallone. The thing about surprise nominations (Hardy) is that voters have already shown that they liked the performances more than we’d thought, so it’s hard to predict. Also, Fassbender upsetting DiCaprio is more likely than a lot of people want to think. I personally favor Leo’s performance, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Fassbender won. Larson has Actress locked down, but if anyone were to upset it’d be Ronan or Rampling.

    I actually think Fassbender’s chances are being overblown. His counterpart in his movie (Winslet) is even backing Leo over him. Redmayne has zero chance, Cranston being nominated is an absolute joke in of itself, so I think Damon is the only actor work enough star power and popularity in the industry to upset him. But even Damon doing that is highly unlikely. I’m a Leo fan and the biggest pessimist in the world, but I really don’t see how he can lose unless he pulls a Russell Crowe and beats up a reporter at the BAFTAS. I think the academy is tired of hearing about snubbing him and knows him winning at some point is inevitable so why not give everyone one less headache and give Leo his Oscar in this weak ass year of nominees

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    Moviebuff22
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    #214667

    The academy has enough bad press right now as is. Snubbing Leo when he’s been favored for months is just gonna put even more backlash on the grumpy old men

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    Tonbone
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    #214668

    I think the fact that Hardy’s character died at the end of the movie could help him. Often times an actor wins because their character died.

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    jf123
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    #214669

    Mara and Winslet upsetting could be so easy for them that I wouldnt even consider it an upset if one of them won (especially Winslet), but I think Ruffallo could win for Spotlight if they love the film that much

    Give Paul Thomas Anderson an Oscar.

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    Moviebuff22
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    #214670

    If Bale wins BAFTA I might consider picking him but if Rylance or someone else wins I think it’s locked for Stallone.

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