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Best Screenplay Oscar Thread

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  • Jake
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    #1201927315

    Best Original Screenplay

    Nearly locks
    “Hell or High Water” by Taylor Sheridan (nominated)
    “La La Land” by Damien Chazelle (nominated)
    “Manchester by the Sea” by Kenneth Lonergan (frontrunner to win) (nominated)

    Good bets
    “Captain Fantastic” by Matt Ross
    “Jackie” by Noah Oppenheim
    “Lobster, The” by Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthymis Filippou (nominated)
    “Toni Enderman” by Maren Ade
    “20th Century Women” by Mike Mills (nominated)
    “Zootopia” by 7 writers

    Slim chances

    “Cafe Society” by Woody Allen
    “Founder” by Robert Siegel
    “Hail Ceasar!” by Joel and Ethan Coen
    “Little Men” by Ira Sachs
    “Maggie’s Plan” by Rebecca Miller and Karen Rinaldi
    “Miss Sloane” by Jonathan Perera
    “Rules Don’t Apply” by Warren Beatty
    “Salesman, The” by Asghar Farhadi
    “Swiss Army Man” by Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Nearly locks
    “Fences” by August Wilson (nominated)
    “Moonlight” by Barry Jenkins (frontrunner to win) (nominated)

    Good bets
    “Arrival” by Erich Heisserer (nominated)
    “Loving” by Jeff Nichols
    “Hacksaw Ridge” by Andrew Knight and Robert Schenkkan
    “Hidden Figures” by Theodore Melfi and Alison Schroeder (nominated)
    “Lion” by Luke Davies (nominated)
    “Love and Friendship” by Whit Stillman
    “Nocturnal Animals” by Tom Ford
    “Silence” by Jay Cocks

    Slim chances

    “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk” by Jean-Christopher Castelli
    “Elle” by David Birke
    “Handmaiden, The” by Park Chan-wook
    “Light Between Oceans, The” by Derek Cianfrance
    “Queen of Katwe” by William Wheeler
    “Snowden” by Kieran Fitzgerald and Oliver Stone
    “Sully” by Todd Kormanicki

    • This topic was modified 1 year ago by  Jake.
    • This topic was modified 10 months, 3 weeks ago by  Jake.
    • This topic was modified 10 months, 3 weeks ago by  Jake.
    • This topic was modified 10 months, 3 weeks ago by  Jake.
    • This topic was modified 9 months, 3 weeks ago by  Jake.
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    Andrew Carden
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    #1201927354

    Right now, I have…

    Best Original Screenplay

    Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
    Jeff Nichols, Loving
    Damien Chazelle, La La Land
    Noah Oppenheim, Jackie
    Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Phil Johnston, Jennifer Lee, Rich Moore, Jim Reardon and Josie Trinidad, Zootopia

    Ron Clements and John Musker, Moana
    Barry Jenkins and Tarell McCraney, Moonlight
    Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply
    Steven Knight, Allied
    Asghar Farhadi, The Salesman

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    August Wilson, Fences
    Jean-Christophe Castelli, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    Jay Cocks, Silence
    Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
    Allison Schroeder, Hidden Figures

    Luke Davies, Lion
    Eric Heisserer, Arrival
    Whit Stillman, Love & Friendship
    David Birke, Elle
    Justin Marks, The Jungle Book

    For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis, please visit me at The Awards Connection!

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    Eddy Q
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    #1201927388

    ^ Hang on, is Moonlight Original or Adapted? Both of you have it in different categories. It’s based on an unproduced play, does that make it Original because the source material has be ‘previously produced or published?’ In which case, the playwright would likely be nominated alongside Barry Jenkins.

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    Jake
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    #1201927398

    I didn’t know “Moonlight” was based on a play that was NOT published. It irks me a little that it can be considered an original screenplay since it’s well known fact that it isn’t. Let’s wait on that.

    Kudos to Andrew for mentioning all writers of “Zoootopia” by name (I’m way too lazy for that!) and for adding some missing contenders I didn’t list.

    My provisional September predictions:

    Original
    1. “Manchester by the Sea” (might be another lock, like “Spotlight” was last year)
    2. “La La Land” (maybe too big to ignore if sweep is complete, genre is against it getting here)
    3. “Jackie” (real life stories do well here, too, even if competing with compelety original screenplays is fishy; this one looks good)
    4. “The Lobster” (I’ll risk and pick it because it fits like a dream into how this category works, maybe this “no guts, no glory” approach will bring me some satisfaction come January)
    5. “Loving” (gentle, inspiring story)

    Alternates:
    “Allied” (if it works)
    “The Birth of a Nation” (if it overcomes controversy)
    “Zootopia” (I would LOVE to get it in but unlike last year, which wasn’t that stacked, now there are too many valuable contenders and maybe the film feels already forgotten in the conversation for anything outside of Animated Feature)
    “Passengers” (if it is expected hit)
    “Miss Sloane” (if it’s not another “Suffragete”)

    Adapted
    1. “Fences” (no-brainer if everything will go smoothly)
    2. “Silence” (will it come out this year after all?)
    3. “Billy Lynn…” (good buzz)
    4. “Nocturnal Animals” (I have a thing for films about work of writing, although I haven’t seen it yet obviously)
    5. “Arrival” (Amy Adams double?)

    Alternates:
    “Sully” (power of Clint Eastwood and Tom Hanks combined)
    “Hidden Figures” (might go in several directions during awards season)
    “Lion” (a sleeper?!)
    “Love and Friendship” (those, who saw it, universally LOVED it)
    “Girl on Train” (if “Gone Girl” couldn’t get in, this one shouldn’t too but it’s a maybe at this point)

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    Eddy Q
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    #1201927403

    Variety’s In Contention has Moonlight listed as Original so I’m going with that categorisation until we hear otherwise.

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    M
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    #1201927409

    Screenplay confusion is the worst. Based on the play “In Moonlight Black Boys Look Blue.” Such a pretty and poetic long title.

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    GusCruz
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    #1201927423

    The Lobster is not happening. I also don’t think Arrival will get anywhere near a Screenplay nomination. Other than that, Jake’s predictions are pointing in the right direction.

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    KyleBailey
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    #1201929272

    The King’s Speech was also an unproduced play but managed to be in Original. For some reason they don’t care about that. The Lobster could easily be the Ex Machina of the year for creative hit indie slot

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    Jake
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    #1201929862

    I think so too. This category had many similar inclusions that perhaps felt odd as predictions at the time. The truth is that’s why it’s my favorite Oscar category – how could it not be when it’s the only place that won Oscars for masterpieces like “Citizen Kane”, “Chinatown”, “Thelma & Louise”, “Pulp Fiction” or recently “Her”.

    “The Lobster” had great, very creative screenplay, stronger in its first half but still delivering in second. Even if it’s forgotten by the season’s end, it shouldn’t be. And it’s probably Colin Farrell’s finest performance.

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    DCurrie
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    #1201929995

    I didn’t know “Moonlight” was based on a play that was NOT published. It irks me a little that it can be considered an original screenplay since it’s well known fact that it isn’t. Let’s wait on that.

    Yup, that’s exactly it’s disclaimer. Because the play wasn’t actually published, they deem it an original script.

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    GusCruz
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    #1201930010

    Yup, that’s exactly it’s disclaimer. Because the play wasn’t actually published, they deem it an original script.

    … which is pathetic.

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    M
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    #1201930013

    … which is pathetic.

    Sling Blade was a short film before it became a feature and they deemed it original. Now, Moonlight based on existing material never published nor produced is fair to accept as an original screenplay.

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    pacinofan
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    #1201930112

    If the play “Moonlight” was based on was never published or had a professional production than I think it is fair for the screenplay to be considered original. It may only be hurting its chances having to compete against “Manchester by the Sea”. That being said “Sling Blade” won best adapted screenplay so its nomination is not comparable to the “Moonlight” situation.

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 1 month ago by  pacinofan.
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    M
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    #1201930142

    If the play “Moonlight” was based on was never published or had a professional production than I think it is fair for the screenplay to be considered original. It may only be hurting its chances having to compete against “Manchester by the Sea”. That being said “Sling Blade” won best adapted screenplay so its nomination is not comparable to the “Moonlight” situation.

    You’re correct about Sling Blade. But I remember controversial where Harvey attempted to campaign Sling Blade as an original screenplay.

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    Eddy Q
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    #1201930190

    If the play “Moonlight” was based on was never published or had a professional production than I think it is fair for the screenplay to be considered original. It may only be hurting its chances having to compete against “Manchester by the Sea”. That being said “Sling Blade” won best adapted screenplay so its nomination is not comparable to the “Moonlight” situation.

    You’re correct about Sling Blade. But I remember controversial where Harvey attempted to campaign Sling Blade as an original screenplay.

    If that’s true then that was a major miscalculation on Harvey’s part as there was no way it was going to beat Fargo. Then again, he probably didn’t expect it to be able to beat The English Patient either.

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