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  • Scottferguson
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    #135964

    Maybe there was an earlier one, but since the AH/Her discussion for OS seems to be the main topic in the BP/BD thread, maybe there should an upfront one for screenplays so we can repeat everything that has already been discussed there.

    I assume 12 Years and American Hustle will win these easily, though others of course have valid reasons to think otherwise.

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    Stardust
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    #135966

    12 Years takes Ad, Hustle takes OSP, and it’s the only major award it’s given.

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    Tyler The Awesome Guy
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    #135967

    It’s a two horse race for Original Screenplay, American Hustle and Her. If it goes to AH, then they are definitely winning BP. Twelve Years should take Adapted in a cakewalk.

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    DominicCobb
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    #135968

    I wouldn’t say that if AH gets screenplay then it’s definitely winning, I see it as the frontrunner here regardless of where it ends up with the top prize. But I do think that if it loses screenplay, it’s sure to lose picture as well.

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    Jason Travis
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    #135969

    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: 12 Years a Slave (The Wolf of Wall Street could upset)
    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Her (American Hustle or Nebraska right at the heels) 

    Follow Me on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/jasonmovieguy
    13K Subscribers, 29 Million Views

    FYC: Derbyite of the Year, 2017

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    Laactingnyc
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    #135970

    Best Original Screenplay

    1. Blue Jasmine
    2. Her
    3. American Hustle
    4. Nebraska
    5. Dallas Buyers Club

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    1. The Wolf of Wall Street
    2. 12 Years a Slave
    3. Captain Phillips
    4. Philomena
    5. Before Midnight 

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    Gabriel
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    #135971

    ORIGINAL:
    Will win: American Hustle
    Could win: Nebraska
    Should win: Her

    ADAPTED:
    Will win: 12 Years a Slave
    Could win: The Wolf of Wall Street
    Should win: Before Midnight.

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    unsunganthem
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    #135972

    I actually don’t believe AH is going to win Original “easily”. With Jonze picking up a lot of the precursor awards for scripting Her, I think the tide has turned in his favor over the scribes of AH. And this is how it should be. AH is a lot of things, but well written isn’t quite one of them, IMO. Her, on the other hand, is a breathtakingly novel approach to storytelling, with some deep and meaningful dialogue.

    On the Adapted front, I truly would love nothing more than to see Linklater, Delpy, and Hawke win for Before Midnight. What these three have done with their film series is nothing short of incredible. And I feel that the third installment was one of the absolute best films of the past several years, in large part due to the brilliant script and phenomenal performances. Ultimately, I do think 12 Years will win in this category, however. And I’m okay with that. It’d be a very deserving winner. 

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    ETPhoneHome
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    #135973

    I think that Adapted will probably go to 12 Years, unless Wolf of Wall Street picks up some steam. I think that Original Screenplay will be decided by the Writer’s Guild, where every Oscar nominee is nominated. I expect Her to win that and pull ahead of American Hustle.

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    Nessie
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    #135974

    Adapted: hope it’s “Before Midnight”, think it will be “12 Years”
    Original: “Her”

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    Scottferguson
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    #135975

    % chances of winning –

    Original – American Hustle – 65%
                   Her – 11%
                   Nebraska – 11%
                   Dallas Buyers Club – 11%
                   Blue Jasmine – 2%

    Of the top 8 categories, this is the fourth easiest to pick. You are betting a risky longshot to pick anything else. I actually feel silly having AH so low. I’d vote for Her or Nebraska, which ever one I thought had the better chance of winning.

    Adapted – 12 Years a Slave – 80%
                     Philomena – 10%
                     Captain Phillips – 4%
                     Wolf of Wall Street – 4%
                     Before Midnight – 2%       

                     Also likely too low a % for 12 Years. I’d vote for Before Midnight though it has next to no chance of winning.    
                                      

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    Tye-Grr
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    #135976

    My personal rankings of the nominees:

    Original:

    1. Her
    2. American Hustle
    3. Blue Jasmine
    4. Dallas Buyer’s Club

    (have not seen ‘Nebraska’ yet)

    Adapted:

    1. The Wolf of Wall Street
    2. Before Midnight
    3. 12 Years a Slave
    4. Captain Phillips

    (have not seen ‘Philomena’ yet) 

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    Nessie
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    #135977

    % chances of winning –

    Original – American Hustle – 65%
                   Her – 11%
                   Nebraska – 11%
                   Dallas Buyers Club – 11%
                   Blue Jasmine – 2%

    Of the top 8 categories, this is the fourth easiest to pick. You are betting a risky longshot to pick anything else. I actually feel silly having AH so low. I’d vote for Her or Nebraska, which ever one I thought had the better chance of winning.

    Adapted – 12 Years a Slave – 80%
                     Philomena – 10%
                     Captain Phillips – 4%
                     Wolf of Wall Street – 4%
                     Before Midnight – 2%       

                     Also likely too low a % for 12 Years. I’d vote for Before Midnight though it has next to no chance of winning.    
                                      

    Do you think Academy members might be aware of the rapturous reviews coming out of Sundance for Linklater’s “Boyhood” and that might goose up their chances on this one?

     

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    Gabriel
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    #135978

    I don’t think I’ll be able to bear seeing Before Midnight lose. It’s like, do they have to wait another 9 years? They really should have won for Before Sunset.

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    Scottferguson
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    #135979

    <<Do you think Academy members might be aware of the rapturous reviews coming out of Sundance for Linklater’s “Boyhood” and that might goose up their chances on this one?>>

    No and no. 

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