BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 2017

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  • Profile photo of jacob gitlinjacob121
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    #1201921721

    So what’s going on here? Doesn’t seem like there are any front runners at the moment – somewhat unusual coming off of the festivals.

    Ali has gotten some heat from Moonlight (and his recent guest Emmy nom can’t hurt, I guess) – but he seems like the only solid choice we have right now.

    Steve Martin is #1 in the predictions center – can someone who has read the book give some insight into this? Is his character very prominent?

    Hugh Grant seems too lightweight but in such a weak year for the category this could happen.

    Funny how this was one of the most stacked categories last year!

    Thoughts?

    • This topic was modified 8 months, 1 week ago by Profile photo of jacob gitlin jacob121.
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    Profile photo of Eddy QEddy Q
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    #1201921741

    I think this might end up being more competitive than it seems right now. So far we have:

    Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
    Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
    Aaron Eckhart – Bleed for This / Sully
    Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins (massive category fraud, but oh well)
    Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
    Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals
    Timothy Spall – Denial

    Still to come are the following possibilities:

    Adam Driver & Liam Neeson – Silence (if it gets a 2016 release)
    Edgar Ramírez – Gold (it’s Weinstein and McConaughey looks baity, so Ramírez could follow along for a nom)
    Someone from Fences, possibly Stephen Henderson who got a Tony nod
    Someone from Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

    Apologies if I missed someone important.

    I too would be interested to know what it is about Steve Martin’s role in Billy Lynn that puts him at the top of the predictions centre.

    I expect many here will have seen that sole photo of Liam Neeson in Silence and thought “Oscar!”

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    Profile photo of AlexAMG
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    #1201921745

    Michael Shannon in Nocturnal Animals is the front runner. It’s just all the media and Oscarologists are focussing on Best Actress because there is an actual race there already.

    Liam Neeson is a possible spoiler. Steve Martin an outside shot.

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    Profile photo of Jamesjames14
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    #1201921752

    I too would be interested to know what it is about Steve Martin’s role in Billy Lynn that puts him at the top of the predictions centre.

    (slight spoilers around the plot of the book / film)

    The role in the book isn’t huge by any means, but has the potential to bring out a good performance. Martin plays the owner of the Dallas Cowboys who hosts Bravo Squad when they’re back on their “victory tour” and shows interest in making a film about their war experiences. The role initially comes off as a light-hearted, friendly supporter of American troops, but changes later to show a darker side of greed and capitalism (and their use of “America” for personal gain), so if the film stays true to the novel, it should allow Martin to have a pretty substantial arc as a villain of sorts.

    That said, there are quite a few supporting male roles in the novel that could be focused on more in the film, depending on which they decide to play up as a major supporting character. Steve Martin, Garrett Hedlund, an Chris Tucker’s characters in the book are all fairly major and could make for good roles; I’ve seen predictions for Vin Diesel, but the role in the book is just a plot point, so that won’t go anywhere unless the film changes this up.

    As expected, Kristen Stewart’s character in the novel is probably the most interesting / complex, and will make for the best role in the film.

    • This reply was modified 8 months, 1 week ago by Profile photo of James james14.
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    Profile photo of Eddy QEddy Q
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    #1201921753

    Ooh I just remembered Peter Sarsgaard’s been getting good ink for Jackie as well.

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    13SV8
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    #1201921762

    Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals is the frontrunner here.

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    Profile photo of jacob gitlinjacob121
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    #1201921780

    Michael Shannon seems like a solid choice at this point in the race but I can’t help but flash back a little bit to A Single Man where I was sure Julianne Moore would get the supporting nomination and she ended up snubbed. Shannon obviously has had the one nom for Revolutionary Road but isn’t liked enough to have gotten in for other acclaimed performances like Take Shelter or 99 Homes (admittedly those were totally off the Oscar radar as it turned out). My point is that Moore had more of a pedigree, had earned some precursor noms, had an acclaimed performance in a film that got other acting noms and she still missed out. Again not a 1-1 comparison but … it’s on my mind.

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    Profile photo of VolcarockaVolcarocka
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    #1201921824

    Shannon and Ali are the current frontrunners and very likely to be nominated. Aaron Eckhart has been in several films with potentially nom-worthy performances. Bridges probably deserves a nom but it’s debatable if he’ll get it at this point. Manchester by the Sea has some supporting roles that will probably take at least one slot. Steve Martin has a chance, and Neeson and Driver could show up if Silence comes out and is good enough.

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    Profile photo of Andrew CardenAndrew Carden
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    #1201921889

    If Silence actually comes out and Neeson is the least bit memorable, I suspect he has a pretty damn good chance.

    Interesting nobody’s mentioned Beatty.

    OSCAR FLASHBACK: Best Original Song (2010) – Ahem, Where is Cher?

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    KyleBailey
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    #1201922526

    Just have seen Hell or High Water, I would really love a Jeff Bridges nomination but I found that movie having 3 co leads. Bridges, Foster, and Pine really share the amount of time on screen and the amount of story devoted to their characters but I understand why people would put him in supporting. I wouldn’t be screaming about it like I would with Hugh Grant who deserves a nomination but in lead. I would give it to Simon Helberg so far with what I’ve seen this year. I think Martin has several factors going for him, 1. Beloved actor that has never earned an Oscar nomination B. Ang Lee 3. Comedic actor going dramatic 4. Weak group being presented. I think he’s kind of a filler right now but I wouldn’t say this race is over with Martin as a lock by any means.

    I do have Beatty in 5th. This movie has been in the works for so long, it’s a passion project for him, and he’s such a beloved star that I think many older voters would love to vote for him as a welcome back hug. That’s only if the movie doesn’t flop which it has potential with it’s whimsical tone in the trailer (it’s seems more of a Trumbo so that could be good for Beatty seeing how Cranston got nominated).

    If Silence does come out this year, I think Neeson will shoot up to #1 though but at this point it might be good to premiere it at Cannes next year and wait for next year’s race

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    Profile photo of Adam RockAdam Rock
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    #1201922550

    Aaron Eckhart had nothing to work with in Sully and Bleed for This has a 59% on metacritic (as of now). If he gets in its purely based on the fact that this category is empty. It’s not happening.

    Steve Martin would be an interesting bet. Billy Lynn is going to be big and he seems like a likely candidate to go along for the ride, with the lead of this movie likely not getting a nomination and Kirsten Stewart being pushed out because her category is loaded.

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    Profile photo of jamie gonzalesjamiepg88
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    #1201922611

    Do you think Martin’s chances are helped or hurt because he’s a recent Honorary Oscar recipient? I currently have him, Ali, and Shannon as locks but honestly this category frequently feels like three or four nominees are completely filler and/or just there so their movie has someone nominated.

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    Profile photo of MM
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    #1201922619

    I think Lee’s movie will be a critical bust.

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    Profile photo of AlexAMG
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    #1201922892

    Supporting Actor has recently been where unexpected/coattail nominations have come from.

    Add that to the weakness of the field (so far), who is likely to fit that Tom Hardy/Jonah Hill type slot?

    John Legend or JK Simmons in La La Land?
    One of the Fences actors?
    Andre Holland in Moonlight?
    Jeremy Renner in Arrival?
    Aaron Taylor Johnson in Nocturnal Animals?

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    Profile photo of jacob gitlinjacob121
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    #1201922917

    Supporting Actor has recently been where unexpected/coattail nominations have come from.

    Add that to the weakness of the field (so far), who is likely to fit that Tom Hardy/Jonah Hill type slot?

    John Legend or JK Simmons in La La Land?
    One of the Fences actors?
    Andre Holland in Moonlight?
    Jeremy Renner in Arrival?
    Aaron Taylor Johnson in Nocturnal Animals?

    From what I have read JK Simmons is more like a cameo role and have read 0 critics mention John Legend as a standout.

    I don’t know anything about Fences beyond Viola/Denzel – does anyone know if any of the supporting characters were nominated at the Tonys (aside from Viola’s role in the original production)?

    Loved Andre Holland on The Knick. Still, of the reviews I have read he is maybe mentioned third among the actors after Ali and Harris.

    The Oscars love them some Renner but I am not predicting much from Arrival at the moment – even Adams.

    I read one review in particular that said Taylor-Johnson was a standout supporting player but I am not confident that Ford can get two actors in let alone three based on the performance of A Single Man.

    Timothy Spall in Denial is pretty high in the predictions center and I have him in at the moment because…why not? He’s been getting good reviews along with the film itself (although, not exactly raves). Could this happen or is this just leftover bitterness from those still pissed he couldn’t get in for Mr. Turner?

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