November 4, 2012 at 6:56 pm #74122
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
and the Oscar goes to . . . Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
This is Tommy Lee Jones’ second Academy Award out of four nominations. He previously won for his supporting role in The Fugitive.November 4, 2012 at 7:13 pm #74124
I think Javier Bardem may surprise. He’s been getting stellar reviews, and “Skyfall” is already a huge hit worldwide and destined ot be one on the States too. I could see critics groups embracing the performance, as he gets to play a flamboyant and menacing villain. I could see both him and Dench being nominated.
And I’m still not sure about any “Argo” nominees. Since it’s an emsemble-driven film, and Arkin seems to be only comic relief, I don’t think he’s a lock yet, and might be replaced as the season goes on. I also believe that all those character actor in supporting might split support, and let someone else completely get in.November 4, 2012 at 7:25 pm #74125
I really hope Bardem can grab a nomination. He was brilliant as Silva. Every time he was on screen you couldn’t stop looking at him. Javier was award-worthy.November 4, 2012 at 9:16 pm #74126
If those are, indeed the 5 nominees, DiCaprio will be the only one out of them who hasn’t won already. I would think that would get a lot of people to vote in his favor. Especially if his performance is as great as it’s rumored to be..November 4, 2012 at 9:38 pm #74127
I don’t think Jones will beat DiCaprio again.November 4, 2012 at 9:38 pm #74128
I don’t think Jones will beat DiCaprio again.November 5, 2012 at 6:50 am #74129
The nominees (in likelyhood of winning)
Phillip Seymour Hoffman as Lancaster Dodd in “The Master
His performance is one that the Academy loves. If he can be nominated for the mediocre “Charlie Wilson’s War”, he can be nominated for a film by a modern Kubrick, P.T. Anderson. He will win this award and join the likes of Robert De Niro and Denzel Washington as being actors who have won Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor.
Leonardo DiCaprio as Calvin Candie in “Django Unchained”
Ah, an overdue actor if there ever was one. The frontrunner for several months, DiCaprio is a major contender for this prize. If he weren’t competing with Hoffman, one of my favorite actors, I would predict him for the win.
Tommy Lee Jones as Thaddeus Stevens in “Lincoln”
I want Jones to win. I would vote for Jones anyday. Yet,
he is up against DiCaprio and Hoffman. I am placing him third because he
already has an Oscar and unlike Hoffman, his performance isn’t one of
the most buzzed about this year. A win could still happen and I would be
very satisfied if he wins.
Alan Arkin as Lester Siegel in “Argo”
An extremely underrated actor. He deserved his win a few years ago, but unless the Academy wants to award a less-than-perfect comic performance, I doubt he could score a win, but a nomination is waiting for him
Javier Bardem as Raoul Silva in “Skyfall”
A James Bond villain nominated for an Academy Award? That’s crazy until you see the complexity and grandeur of his character that is vastly superior to any other James Bond villain. Bardem is a gifted actor and I see a nomination happening for him for this film.November 5, 2012 at 7:14 am #74130
Is PSH confirmed Supporting? If he is, mark him up there with Ethan Hawke and Casey Affleck of the most severe cases of category fraud. I wonder if the Academy will correct it, like they did with Keisha Castle Hughes and Kate Winslet, or not like Hailee Steinfeld who most certainly belongs up there with Affleck and Hawke.November 5, 2012 at 7:21 am #74131
I think people who support “The Master” might help the “fraud” to come through. They will probably want to raise both Phoenix and Hoffman’s chances of winning. if they go head to head in Lead Actor, you run the risk of even having neither nominated.November 5, 2012 at 7:23 am #74132
Then why designate?? Why not just nominate ten men and women?November 5, 2012 at 7:29 am #74133
Joaquin Phoenix is the main lead and protagonist of The Master, so I don’t really mind/care that PSH is being put in supporting. If only one of them is going to be pushed as lead, then of course it’s going to be Phoenix.
Anyways, I thought PSH would be the frontrunner, but now I’m starting to think Dicaprio could very well win this. His performance will probably be universally acclaimed, but he also has the “due” factor going for him too.November 5, 2012 at 7:37 am #74134
I don’t even know if DiCaprio will end up being the most praised actor on the film. What if Waltz or Samuel L. Jackson upstage him? It’s possible.November 5, 2012 at 7:45 am #74135
Gabriel, what is a main lead versus a co-lead? Am not trying to be a pain, I am just trying to understand what you mean.. Did you walk out thinking PSH was clearly supporting or its borderline? I don’t understand how one can conpare the impact and screentime of PSH to that of Ruby Dee (a damn fine actress).November 5, 2012 at 7:55 am #74136
He means that while both have the same equivalent of screentime, Phoenix is the protagonist.November 5, 2012 at 8:00 am #74137
Gabriel, what is a main lead versus a co-lead? Am not trying to be a pain, I am just trying to understand what you mean.. Did you walk out thinking PSH was clearly supporting or its borderline? I don’t understand how one can conpare the impact and screentime of PSH to that of Ruby Dee (a damn fine actress).
I just meant that even though they are co-leads, if you really have to get technical, then Phoenix’s role is more important, because he’s the actual protagonist.
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