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Best Supporting Actor for Oscars

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  • Chris Beachum
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    #200848

    Time for a brand new thread discussing the Oscar race for Best Supporting Actor.

    GOLDEN GLOBES:
    Paul Dano, “Love and Mercy”
    Idris Elba, “Beasts of No Nation”
    Mark Rylance, “Bridge of Spies”
    Michael Shannon, “99 Homes”
    Sylvester Stallone, “Creed”

    SAG AWARDS:
    Christian Bale, “The Big Short”
    Idris Elba, “Beasts of No Nation”
    Mark Rylance, “Bridge of Spies”
    Michael Shannon, “99 Homes”
    Jacob Tremblay, “Room”

    OTHER CONTENDERS:
    Jeff Daniels, “Steve Jobs”
    Benicio Del Toro, “Sicario”
    Joel Edgerton, “Black Mass”
    Walton Goggins, “The Hateful Eight”
    Tom Hardy, “The Revenant”
    Michael Keaton, “Spotlight”
    Harvey Keitel, “Youth”
    Seth Rogen, “Steve Jobs”
    Mark Ruffalo, “Spotlight”
    Kurt Russell, “The Hateful Eight”
    Jason Segel, “The End of the Tour”

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    manakamana
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    #200850

    I see The Big Short is a real contender now, which I never would have considered, but would Bale be deserving of a nomination for it? I haven’t heard much of anything about his work in the film. Right now, if Spotlight is really not going to get any actors nominated in this category, the Globes lineup makes the most sense right now. But Goggins can potentially make it in.

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    ziggy
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    #200851

    This is such a delicious category this year. My predictions for now:

    Stallone
    Rylance
    Dano
    Elba
    Bale

    But I really have no idea. It’s a total crapshoot.

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    Riley
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    #200852

    We knew that Netflix could do very well, but then we did not hear much and we all discounted Beasts of No Nation.  Well, guess what?  Beasts of No Nation is doing very well and Idris Elba is their biggest contender in any category, so he is in first.

    Even though they all nominate pretty much the same people, each awards group has their biases.  BAFTA has a British slant; the Globes do not like indies or genre; SAG likes veterans and early releases.  So I was fully expecting to predict Jacob Tremblay for the Oscar with maybe only Critics’ Choice as far as precursors go.  That he got SAG indicates how cemented he is for a nomination.  And he was going to get an Oscar nomination anyway.  He is the standout and lead performance from a sure-fire Best Picture nominee who has dropped down to supporting fraudulently, yet runs the risk of no vote-splitting due to a deliberate and accepted campaign.

    There are some SAG nominations that come out of nowhere and should be discounted because they are weird and are probably the result of people not seeing later contenders and just filling slots with people whom they have nominated before.  Then there are the people that come out of nowhere and should be taken very seriously because there was no reason for them to get in unless they have really passionate support.  That is Michael Shannon in 99 Homes, a movie with no Oscar buzz that grossed under two million worldwide.

    The Big Short is coming.  We got a glimpse of it at SAG, but who knows if Steve Carell could have gotten in too if SAG had voted a few weeks later.  Christian Bale is the lone nominee from a nominated ensemble from a film that nobody has seen yet, but is gradually building momentum through pushes from its studio, its absurdly A-list cast and the Los Angeles win for its editing.  Bale would be higher, but he runs the risk of vote-splitting in more ways than one.  First of all, some people are going to vote for him in lead.  He is both first billed and that is where he was nominated by the Globes.  Second, he might lose some votes to Steve Carell.  Yes, Carell has been consistently campaigned in lead, but this is an ensemble effort probably similar to Spotlight.  People are going to vote for Carell in supporting, like they did at BAFTA last year.  And he had the advantage of top billing that time.

    That leaves Mark Ruffalo at the bottom of my predicted nominees.  He missed the Globes and SAG, but this role is a classic Oscar winner.  Again, he is first billed, so he is arguably a lead actor competing in supporting, plus it is a performance with lots of tics, so he is “on” the whole time and you cannot accuse him of playing himself, plus this is the Best Picture frontrunner, which should mean a win or at least a nomination and he has a tailor-made Oscar clip.  He has been hurt immensely and possibly irreparably by vote-splitting.  Michael Keaton is his main competition from the movie, but there have also been several who feel that Stanley Tucci or Liev Schreiber were the standouts from the movie.  Remember that the studio is campaigning one supporting actress and seven supporting actors for this movie, which is ridiculous because there are only five slots.  It has been twenty-three years since 1993, which is when the academy last nominated two supporting actors from the same film.  People were sad about Leonardo DiCaprio for Django Unchained, but he never had a shot with leading Christoph Waltz in the mix because the academy will not nominate two supporting actors for whatever reason.  With Spotlight, there is no consensus over who the one should be, so nobody gets it.  But as soon as Mark Ruffalo can gain some measurable ground over Michael Keaton (maybe through Critics’ Choice and BAFTA), he is the frontrunner for the win.  Not only is this the case because of everything that I laid out above, but we need to remember that Mark Ruffalo is a hugely popular guy among actors.  He hit every precursor possible for Foxcatcher, even though that was a very subtle performance with zero fireworks and he won SAG in an upset for The Normal Heart over Oscar winner Billy Bob Thornton in “television’s best show” Fargo and leading Oscar nominee Benedict Cumberbatch.

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    manakamana
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    #200853

    But Shannon also got in at the Globes, so it was clearly something more than a SAG fluke. That’s also in addition to a big LAFCA win the other day. It seems like he has the passion to overcome the challenges of his film’s distributor. 

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    Riley
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    #200854

    Sylvester Stallone might go the distance, but I am feeling
    pretty burned lately by things that have been willed into being
    contenders and do not look like them at all if you take a step back and
    see things on a surface level.  I am talking about Nightcrawler at the Oscars last year and Empire at the Emmys.  Creed is just not something that is up the Oscars’ alley.  First of all, it is Rocky VII
    I commend them for not using that as the title, but this
    previously-tired franchise is just about the least sexy thing to the
    Oscars.  Then there are the black and indie aspects of it.  Yes, no
    black performances were nominated last year, but there was only one
    viable one in contention.  This is not a Martin Luther King biopic; this
    is Rocky VII by the guy who did Fruitvale Station from a studio that has enough other plates spinning.

    Mark Rylance looks to me like a classic case of someone who hits every precursor, then misses the Oscar nomination.  Bridge of Spies
    was almost perfect for the Oscars.  But it came out just a little bit
    too early and reviews were just a little bit too good-not-excellent. 
    And with this crazy year and cooler contenders in the mix, Bridge of Spies
    is outright tanking now.  Rylance is obviously the most celebrated part
    of the movie, but he is running on fumes at this point and they are not
    going to last all the way to the Oscars, especially with his
    understated and unquestionably supporting performance.

    They need to switch up the Michael Keaton campaign as fast as they can.  It is not too late at all to pivot.  Spotlight is not big enough to get two supporting actors.  Even with something like Argo,
    we came out of that one thinking that Bryan Cranston, Alan Arkin and
    John Goodman were on equal footing.  But someone somewhere decided that
    it would be Alan Arkin who would go the distance, so then he took
    everything and the other two guys got nothing.  Ruffalo and Keaton are
    still on equal footing.  Ruffalo has the scene, the top billing and is
    maybe a more popular actor.  Keaton has a slightly bigger role and he is
    the leader of the Spotlight team, so he feels important, plus he has the narrative of being snubbed for Birdman
    But Detroit just nominated Liev Schreiber over both of them, so things
    are even more complicated.  Keaton has no chance of winning everywhere;
    Ruffalo can win supporting but not lead.  So they need to get Keaton the
    hell out of supporting so that they can both get nominations and maybe a
    win for Ruffalo.  It is perfectly set up too, since Keaton has already
    won the lead category from New York, the most publicized critic group
    and lead has an open slot for when Johnny Depp runs out of steam, not to
    mention that DiCaprio is the only lock in that category anyway. 
    Ruffalo has even gotten two nominations so far (Satellites and Online
    Film Critics) both in supporting.

    Paul Dano is in this.  He got a Globe nomination, plus he has built up a great résumé, with stuff like There Will Be Blood and Little Miss Sunshine.  He is going to get in one of these years and this role is both critically-supported and arguably leading.

    Rounding out the top ten is Tom Hardy, who continues to earn respect with Mad Max and also pick up hardware with Locke and LegendThe Revenant
    is one of two movies that can win Best Picture at this point and he is
    basically the only guy in the movie aside from Leonardo DiCaprio, plus
    it is a showy villain role.  But he has not gone anywhere so far.  I
    think that this is just one of those things like Ben Kingsley in Hugo
    that makes perfect sense on paper, but ultimately is just not a thing,
    so we should not hold his continued snubs against him.  Tom is always
    talking about how Tom Hanks missed for Saving Mr. Banks, but I
    think that that role was actually just never in contention and should
    not be held against him just as you would not hold a miss for The Da Vinci Code
    against him.  It is not like he got some critics’ awards and a Globe
    nomination, then missed at the Oscars.  He just never got anything; all
    of his supposed momentum was just from bloggers making lists of
    potential contenders.  That is who Tom Hardy is this year.  He stays in
    the top ten because we know that The Revenant had screening
    issues at SAG or it would have gotten nominated for stunts.  Yes, they
    nominated Leonardo DiCaprio, but he has been the frontrunner to win for a
    long time, so he was kind of getting in no matter how many people saw
    him, plus lead actor is not a deep field like supporting.

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    Damian Pietrzak
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    #200855

    1. Mark Rylance – “Bridge of Spies”
    2. Idris Elba – “Beats of No Nation”
    3. Paul Dano – “Love and Mercy”
    4. Micheal Shannon – “99 Homes”
    5. Sylvester Stallone – “Creed”

    6. Jacob Tremblay – “Room”
    7. Michael Keaton – “Spotlight”
    8. Mark Ruffalo – “Spotlight”
    9. Christian Bale – “The Big Short”

    Its not happening for Spotlight guys…unless somebody goes lead

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    24Emmy
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    #200856

    Even though they all nominate pretty much the same people, each awards group has their biases.  BAFTA has a British slant; the Globes do not like indies or genre; SAG likes veterans and early releases.  So I was fully expecting to predict Jacob Tremblay for the Oscar with maybe only Critics’ Choice as far as precursors go.  That he got SAG indicates how cemented he is for a nomination.  And he was going to get an Oscar nomination anyway.  He is the standout and lead performance from a sure-fire Best Picture nominee who has dropped down to supporting fraudulently, yet runs the risk of no vote-splitting due to a deliberate and accepted campaign.

    SAG likes kids as well. Since 2000 they’ve nominated Jamie Bell, Abigail Breslin, Keisha Castle-Hughes, Dakota Fanning, Freddie Highmore, Dev Patel, Hailee Steinfeld, and Evan Rachel Wood.

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    FilmGuy619
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    #200857

    My predictions post-Globe / SAG:

    Paul Dano, Love and Mercy 
    Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
    Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies 
    Sylvester Stallone, Creed 
    Jacob Tremblay, Room

    Alt: Tom Hardy, The Revenant 

    Idris Elba and Mark Rylance seem pretty safe imo. Although Stallone just started to pick up steam, his Globe nod helped a lot. Paul Dano’s Globe nod also helped a lot. While Jacob Tremblay missed the Globes, scoring SAG was very key, especially considering how packed Best Supporting Actor is. If he was able to sneak into SAGs in a crowded field, then he’s a major threat for a nod. I want to say that Benicio Del Toro gets in for Sicario, but it’s looking less likely. I also have Tom Hardy as an alternate, but he’s receiving more notices for Legend and something tells me he’ll get recognized for that performance. While Michael Shannon did score Globe and SAG nods, the fact that his distributor is so small and he’s the only one getting plaudits for the film has me wondering whether he’ll miss out.

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    Cheshire
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    #200858

    My predictions:
    Idris Elba- Beasts of No Nation
    Mark Rylance- Bridge of Spies
    Michael Shannon- 99 Homes
    Sylvester Stallone- Creed
    Jacob Tremblay- Room

    I think Mark Rylance is a clear frontrunner in category. Jacob Tremblay has SAG support and SAG has Oscar voters, and Sylvester Stallone is this year veteran. 

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    Kristen Boyer
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    #200859

    [quote=”thedemonhog”]Even though they all nominate pretty much the same people, each awards group has their biases.  BAFTA has a British slant; the Globes do not like indies or genre; SAG likes veterans and early releases.  So I was fully expecting to predict Jacob Tremblay for the Oscar with maybe only Critics’ Choice as far as precursors go.  That he got SAG indicates how cemented he is for a nomination.  And he was going to get an Oscar nomination anyway.  He is the standout and lead performance from a sure-fire Best Picture nominee who has dropped down to supporting fraudulently, yet runs the risk of no vote-splitting due to a deliberate and accepted campaign.

    SAG likes kids as well. Since 2000 they’ve nominated Jamie Bell, Abigail Breslin, Keisha Castle-Hughes, Dakota Fanning, Freddie Highmore, Dev Patel, Hailee Steinfeld, and Evan Rachel Wood.

    [/quote]

    3 of those kids went on to be nominated for Oscars and then of course Saoirse Ronan and Quvenzhane Wallis. If you include the year 2000, then you have Haley Joel Osment as well. I don’t know if this really helps Jacob but clearly the Acadamy does not mind child noms either and it does help that he (wrongfully) is being considered for supporting which is where most child noms end up.

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    Anonymous
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    #200860

    This category is a mess.

    1. Mark Rylance
    2. Idris Elba
    3. Christian Bale
    4. Michael Shannon
    5. Paul Dano

    6. Sylvester Stallone
    7. Jacob Tremblay
    8. Michael Keaton
    9. Mark Ruffalo
    10. Walton Goggins

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    KyleBailey
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    #200861

    I see The Big Short is a real contender now, which I never would have considered, but would Bale be deserving of a nomination for it? I haven’t heard much of anything about his work in the film. Right now, if Spotlight is really not going to get any actors nominated in this category, the Globes lineup makes the most sense right now. But Goggins can potentially make it in.

    He’s not. All he does is listen to loud music in a room and mope out of his office to change a stock rate on a whiteboard. Gosling is the standout supporting actor in that. Even Finn Wittrock would be better than Bale  

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    Eddy Q
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    #200862

    It’s so confusing how Rylance looks like the frontrunner for a nomination, yet I just cannot see him winning unless all or most of these five – Keaton, Ruffalo, Elba, Stallone and Tremblay – don’t get nominated.

    I’m also wondering if Tom Hardy might get a Jonah Hill in WoWS type nomination where he gets misses out across the board and then surprises everyone at Oscar due to the strength of his film overall. It’s not as if Hardy’s being ignored in reviews. 

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    thatfilmgirl
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    #200863

    I’m also wondering if Tom Hardy might get a Jonah Hill in WoWS type nomination where he gets misses out across the board and then surprises everyone at Oscar due to the strength of his film overall. It’s not as if Hardy’s being ignored in reviews. 

    I’m wondering this myself. I have a hunch this could definitely happen and I’d be thrilled if it did! 

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