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Best Supporting Actress 2017 Oscar Thread

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  • kaziz
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    #1201919541

    Let’s list the contenders. So far, based on buzz and the performances that have been seen, these are the contenders

    Strong contenders:
    Michelle Williams–Manchester by the Sea (seems like an early lock)
    Naomie Harris–Moonlight
    Kristen Stewart–Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    Kirsten Dunst–Midnight Special
    Laura Linney–Sully

    Unseen/unknown/uncertain:
    Sarah Gadon–Indignation
    Dakota Fanning–American Pastoral
    Lupita Nyongo–Queen of Katwe
    Octavia Spencer–Hidden Figures
    Laura Dern–The Founder

    Long shots:
    Rebecca Ferguson–Girl on the Train
    Greta Gerwig–20th Century Women
    Laura Dern–Certain Women
    Kristen Stewart–Certain Women
    Aja Naomi King–The Birth of a Nation
    Gabrielle Union–The Birth of a Nation

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    jasonface
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    #1201919567

    My contenders list based on what I’ve heard, not what I’ve seen. (in alphabetical order per section)

    STRONGEST
    Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral
    Naomie Harris, Moonlight
    Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals
    Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

    BACK-UPS
    Laura Dern, The Founder
    Nicole Kidman, Lion
    Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation
    Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
    Rachel Weisz, The Light Between Oceans

    LONG SHOTS
    Haley Bennett, The Girl on a Train
    Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women
    Rebecca Ferguson, The Girl on the Train
    Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
    Margo Martindale, The Hollars

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    Milo Kunis
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    #1201919591

    As of this moment, without any precursor or televised award presentations, I’d say Michelle Williams. She has extremely positive word of mouth. She’s coming into the race with three previous nominations. Oh, and she also happens to be the actress of her generation.

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 2 months ago by  Milo Kunis.
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    TheRedBoy
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    #1201919594

    I’m going with:
    Michelle Williams, Manchester By The Sea — WINNER
    Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    Nicole Kidman, Lion
    Naomie Harris, Moonlight

    And the fifth spot goes to:
    Laura Dern, The Founder
    Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation
    Laura Linney, Sully / Nocturnal Animals
    Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

    But I honestly wouldn’t mind if Amy Adams somehow commits category fraud, gets nominated here, and beats out the competition for the win.

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 2 months ago by  TheRedBoy.
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    Andrew Carden
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    #1201919595

    Yeah, barring Davis or Adams going Supporting, Williams is looking pretty good right now, though I can fathom Stewart winning over the HFPA. Harris will likely be the critics’ fave but I’m skeptical that necessarily translates into any wins at GG/SAG/BAFTA/Oscar.

    OSCAR FLASHBACK: Best Original Song (2008) – Slumdog Hits the Oscar Jackpot

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    13SV8
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    #1201919601

    I would say Michelle Williams is the frontrunner for me right now, unless Viola Davis or Amy Adams go supporting.

    I’m also hearing a lot of praise for Laura Linney in Nocturnal Animals.

    1. Michelle Williams- Manchester by The Sea
    2. Naomi Harris- Moonlight
    3. Nicole Kidman- Lion
    4. Laura Linney- Nocturnal Animals
    5. Maybe Kristen Stewart.
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    jjjmoss
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    #1201919611

    Let’s go, 2x lead nominee and the only actress born in the 80s to be such.

    And would be one of the last 30 years’ two 2x lead losers with 0 Oscars to subsequently be nominated in supporting, after Zellweger.

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    kaziz
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    #1201919618

    I didn’t realize Laura Linney was getting so much praise for Nocturnal Animals. In that case I’ll revise my top 5 to:

    Michelle Williams–Manchester by the Sea
    Kirsten Dunst–Midnight Special
    Naomie Harris–Moonlight
    Kristen Stewart–Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    Laura Linney–Nocturnal Animals

    But really–this is Michelle Williams’ to lose. Right now, it looks like she has it in the bag. The sleeper hit might be Linney who is such an Academy favorite. I don’t really see Nicole Kidman for Lion at all. Kirsten Dunst and Kristen Stewart seem like the best bets to me apart from Naomie Harris.

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    pacinofan
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    #1201919624

    I didn’t realize Laura Linney was getting so much praise for Nocturnal Animals. In that case I’ll revise my top 5 to:

    Michelle Williams–Manchester by the Sea
    Kirsten Dunst–Midnight Special
    Naomie Harris–Moonlight
    Kristen Stewart–Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    Laura Linney–Nocturnal Animals

    But really–this is Michelle Williams’ to lose. Right now, it looks like she has it in the bag. The sleeper hit might be Linney who is such an Academy favorite. I don’t really see Nicole Kidman for Lion at all. Kirsten Dunst and Kristen Stewart seem like the best bets to me apart from Naomie Harris.

    “Midnight Special” got good reviews but was not a widely seen film and seems unlikely to be on Oscar’s radar. It got released so long ago in theatres that is has already been out on DVD for a while. I do not see why interest in Kirsten Dunst is going to be revived when there is so much Oscar fare coming out during the normal Oscar season. If she was a leading candidate for critics’ awards that could potentially happen but I do not see her being in play over Michelle Williams and Laura Linney or supporting actresses from “The Birth of a Nation” and “Moonlight”. Kristen Stewart probably does not need critics’ awards to get her in the race as she is in one of the top contenders to win best picture, but Kirsten Dunst would need the awards. She would need them badly.

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    Maxwell
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    #1201919627

    Lots of variables at play as far as category placement. I could very easily see Adams switching to supporting for Nocturnal Animals – would free her up to double campaign with Arrival in lead, and early reviews indicate she has less screen time than Gyllenhaal anyways. Barring a narrative shift in favor of Portman or Bening, I’d say Davis will stay in lead.

    Williams seems a lock right away, with Harris and Stewart poised to join her. If Nocturnal Animals really lands, Linney could easily take the fifth slot. I don’t see many viable alternatives, but perhaps someone will emerge at Toronto. Lion looks a bore, and while Hidden Figures could be a feelgood popcorn hit with the Academy, Spencer doesn’t look to be doing anything outside her established wheelhouse. Then again, neither did Alan Arkin in Argo.

    So, tentatively:
    Amy Adams – Nocturnal Animals
    Naomie Harris – Moonlight
    Laura Linney – Nocturnal Animals
    Kristen Stewart – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea

    Williams’ role seems limited, so I’d predict Adams’ semi-category fraud would win out among those; if Adams goes lead for both projects, it’s Williams’ to lose.

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    jasonface
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    #1201919632

    Yeah, just got back from Sully and Laura Linney is literally on the phone the whole time so nothing there for her to work with. She seems to have the reviews for Nocturnal Animals but it sounds like another really small role. Perhaps, I’d replace her with Nicole Kidman in Lion or Laura Dern in The Founder depending on whether Keaton got in or not.

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    Eddy Q
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    #1201919634

    Laura Linney is apparently only in one scene in Nocturnal Animals. Yes, one-scene performances have been nominated before, but I’m hesitant about jumping on the Laura Linney bandwagon at the moment, unless the category ends up being particularly weak this year. And if Amy Adams goes supporting, Linney will have almost no chance.

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    Andrew Carden
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    #1201919681

    Yeah, I just got back from Sully…ZERO chance Linney shows up anywhere. Such a thankless turn.

    OSCAR FLASHBACK: Best Original Song (2009) – Where the Wild Things Weren’t

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    Maxwell
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    #1201919685

    Perhaps Greta Gerwig will get in for Jackie or 20th Century Women – she’s playing opposite two of the current Best Actress frontrunners, and the Academy likes to reward younger actors for strong “years.”

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    jjjmoss
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    #1201919687

    One could argue about whether that applies to 20CW…

    I’m only sorta hyped on Gerwig cuz she’s directing Queen Saoirse next year.

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