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Biggest Oscar lock

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  • Moviebuff22
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    #216902

    Who’s the one sure fire winner with zero chance of losing next Sunday night. For me it’s the screenplay categories for Big Short and Spotlight, Lubezki for cinematography, and Leo and Larson

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    ziggy
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    #216904

    Biggest lock by far: Leo, no contest.

    In more marginalized categories, I feel pretty confident with Inside Out, Son of Saul and Amy having this in the bag.

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    Rooney Moore
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    #216905

    Carol

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    Asgaroth
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    #216906

    DiCaprio
    Larson
    Lubezki
    Inside Out
    Son of Saul

    The screenplays are almost locked, not 100% locked. If voters really didn’t care about Spotlight or TBS (which is possible) I don’t see them rushing to reward them with screenplay-consolation prizes. Maybe Inside Out & Room can surprise in their respective categories.

     

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    DamianWayne
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    #216907

    Inside Out will probably receive the most votes of any contender in any category. 

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    Joe Burns
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    #216908

    Leo for sure.  

    The screenplay categories aren’t locks, although The Big Short is a really strong favorite that will probably win, unless Room can pull an upset which looks doubtful because Brie is such a strong lock in Best Actress and they won’t feel the need to reward the film anywhere else. Spotlight is vulnerable due to the race controversy so Straight Outta Compton is a possible winner. I’m gonna wait till the very end to decide on that race.    

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    Rooney Moore
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    #216909

    When did PGA winner TBS has been downgraded to screenplay-consolation prize? It’s facing an uphill battle with TR for sure, but it won’t lose its best bet to something like Room. And can someone explain the praise for its screenplay to me ? Directing, okay. But for a movie about silence the panegyric for its screenplay is weird.

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    Damiansport1
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    #216910

    Sure fire lock:

    Leo
    Larson
    Inarritu
    Stallone
    Inside Out
    Amy
    Son of Saul
    Original screenplay
    adapted screenplay
    Morricone
    Lady Gaga

    near locks:

    Vikander (dont buying this Winslet thing)
    Star Wars for effects (2 mld+BAFTA+VES, game over)

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    Joe Burns
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    #216911

    When did PGA winner TBS have been downgraded to screenplay-consolation prize? It’s facing an uphill battle with TR for sure, but it won’t lose its best bet to something like Room. And can someone explain the praise for its screenplay for that one to me ? Directing, okay. But for a movie about silence the panegyric for its screenplay is weird.

     

    Well, the Academy clearly liked Room and upsets in Adapted Screenplay can happen if there’s a film that has a lot of passion behind it.   That said, I get your point- Big Short is a near lock for the award. I just am not calling  it a lock. 

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    pablozedd
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    #216912

    Leo
    Larson
    Inside Out
    Amy
    Son of Saul
     

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    ankehuber
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    #216913

    Carol

    in which category  ???

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    Monty
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    #216914

    Leonardo Dicaprio
    Brie Larson
    Sylvester Stallone
    The Big Short for Adapted Screenplay
    Spotlight for Original Screenplay
    Inside Out
    Amy
    Son of Saul
    The Revenant for Cinematography 
    Lady Gaga for Original Song
    The Hateful Eight for Original Score
    Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for Directing (He won BAFTA, DGA, Globe. Only didn’t win the irrelevant BFCA)

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    Damiansport1
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    #216915

    Im not sure that Lubezki is a lock because he won twice in a row and Seale is great too.
    But Inarritu is. He won everything and there isnt clear #2 in this category. really.

    And BFCA didnt gave AGI because as we know, critics didnt love Revenant

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    shart
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    #216916

    Leo (barring being found in bed with Dame Maggie Smith)
    followed closely by Brie Larson and Sly Stallone
    Then Inside Out and Son of Saul and Amy
    Then BD AGI
    Then BC Lubezski
    Best Picture is still up in the air as far as I’m concerned
    After that, it’s anyone’s guess although I might step a bit out on a limb and call most of the techs for Mad Max with Editing being a Wild Card (Big Short or MM)

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    Anonymous
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    #216917

    Leo

    When’s the last time a perceived-overdue actor was the frontrunner for a BP frontrunner? Dustin Hoffman for Kramer vs. Kramer? 

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