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Call Me By Your Name vs. Get Out vs. Lady Bird at Indie Spirits

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  • Miles
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    I was going to switch from CMBYN to Get Out once I realized that CMBYN wasn’t nominated for Screenplay but the prediction center was closed. Anyway, good winners.

    Oh, and I would argue that Lady Bird is a far more quotable film, hence its deserved Screenplay win.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    I am feeling more confident that Lady Bird can win the Best Original Screenplay Oscar tomorrow night…

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    singtribe
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    Congrats to Timothée Chalamet for winning IFC best actor !!

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    Teridax
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    I am feeling more confident that Lady Bird can win the Best Original Screenplay Oscar tomorrow night…

    Even without WGA?

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    FreemanGriffin
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    ^I am not saying I am certain, but it’s Indie Spirit win fits into my narrative: a combination of the metoo movement; Get Out and Three Billboards splitting a majority of the male voters votes; and a majority of the female voters votes for Lady Bird – only a smattering of votes for The Big Sick and The Shape of Water would perhaps get votes from people who place it first on their BP ballots – all adds up to Lady Bird winning, even without the WGA win. Of course I could be wrong and I am underestimating the overall support for either Three Billboards or Get Out or The Shape Of Water; the fact that four films are vying for the award is why I think it is very possible for Lady Bird to win…

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    Teridax
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    ^I am not saying I am certain, but it’s Indie Spirit win fits into my narrative: a combination of the metoo movement; Get Out and Three Billboards splitting a majority of the male voters votes; and a majority of the female voters votes for Lady Bird – only a smattering of votes for The Big Sick and The Shape of Water would perhaps get votes from people who place it first on their BP ballots – all adds up to Lady Bird winning, even without the WGA win. Of course I could be wrong and I am underestimating the overall support for either Three Billboards or Get Out or The Shape Of Water; the fact that four films are vying for the award is why I think it is very possible for Lady Bird to win…

    I don’t even think most women will vote for Lady Bird. http://www.vulture.com/2018/02/how-new-oscar-voters-are-changing-the-way-the-academy-thinks.html

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    Female voters don’t go easy on Lady Bird

    For all of that acclaim over this year’s diverse Best Director race, only one of the new members we polled is casting his vote in that category for Gerwig. “I love her, and I think she did something nearly impossible,” said the member. “It’s a hard movie to pull off well.” He also plans to vote for Lady Bird’s Laurie Metcalf in Best Supporting Actress and is leaning toward giving the film his Best Original Screenplay vote, too: “I probably would vote for Greta again there,” he said, adding, “I’m worried she’s not going to get anything.”

    The new female voters we talked to were not nearly as ebullient. Aside from one woman in the directors branch who loved the film and will vote for its screenplay (though Jordan Peele is that voter’s pick over Gerwig for Best Director), several of the Academy’s new female additions felt that Lady Bird overperformed with Oscar. “I don’t know that Lady Bird deserved a Best Picture nomination,” said one woman in the producers branch. “It’s a good movie, I just don’t know that it gets Best Picture.” Two other new female voters echoed her sentiment. “I’m really proud of Greta; this is her first fucking film as a director!” said one female helmer. “That’s incredible, and she should be insanely proud of herself. Is it Oscar-worthy? I don’t think so. The same with Dee [Rees]. Is Mudbound Oscar-worthy? No, but it’s good. I just want more stories to be told by women because I don’t want to have to get behind a woman just to get behind the woman.”

    “I totally found [Lady Bird] entertaining, and I’m a fan of Greta Gerwig, but does that deserve to be on this list?” asked another female voter. “I was very surprised by the traction that it got. I don’t want to bag it, but is it that people are so desperate to find women directors?” Continued the voter, “That’s a film where a few years ago you’d see it at Sundance and go, ‘That’s great,’ and maybe it gets bought for $5 million … but the fact that’s up against Dunkirk or Phantom Thread?” The voter also brought up that technically, Gerwig had already co-directed the 2008 indie Nights and Weekends: “She’s up for first-time director at the Independent Spirit Awards, but she co-directed a film before and everyone’s just decided to ignore that? People just want to champion her as a first-time filmmaker. Whatever.”

    Another new voter, who is in the Academy’s casting branch, put it succinctly: “I think Greta’s film deserved the nomination,” she said, “but I think Call Me by Your Name is a better-directed movie than Lady Bird.”

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    If anything, as much as you hate the movie, Three Billboards and The Shape of Water seem to have the female vote, the former capturing the female rage of the #MeToo era and the latter being a sweet romantic story where the female protagonist is front and center… plus, unlike Lady Bird it will already win Director and a few tech categories, while the Gerwig film got exactly zero tech nods.

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