Can Bradley Cooper REALLY win over Michael Keaton?

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  • Macbeth
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    #174886

    Simple question here, but I want a proper, direct discussion about this question that is worrying me just a tad. 

    Bradley Cooper was a surprising nominee for American Sniper, and it is his third nomination. His film has been doing massive work at the box office. There are whispers circling around that he could actually win, and this terrifies me, because I am obviously a huge Michael Keaton stan and have been obsessing about him the whole season, and so far he’s on a great track to winning the Oscar, so naturally these thoughts of a Cooper upset are not good news for me and my fellow Keaton lovers. 

    The reason for creating this poll is that throughout all the forums and awards message boards I frequent, there are the sentiments that Cooper can win. None of them, however, have put a number on it, so there is no way to actually know if the general consensus is that he can and will win, or if it is just wishful thinking. 

    So I ask this – is this just a really big case of trying to make the Oscar race exciting this year, and Keaton just wins anyway, or is Cooper a legitimate threat to win? Please vote in the poll above and explain your choice. 

    P.S. I know Eddie Redmayne has been also called a frontrunner for a while now, but let’s face it – he’s likely second or third, and probably won’t win.  

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    AviChristiaans
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    #174888

    Might be biased, but we really don’t know how this race is gonna go.

    Personally, i don’t think the support for the film will be in Best Actor. The conversation, controversy, love and support surrounding the film has people talking American Sniper/Clint Eastwood……not just Bradley Cooper. Not really Bradley Cooper.

    I doubt the film will sweep the Oscars….that aint happening. Will be pleasantly shocked if it does happen.

     But i don’t see a situation where American Sniper goes home empty handed, or with just Sound Category wins.

       

       

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    AMG
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    #174889

    As you say, there is also Eddie Redmayne. Bradley Cooper needs to be able to beat him as well as Keaton if he is to win. Surely, Redmayne, on paper, has the best chance. Even if the odds and precursors aren’t hugely in his favour. 

    The thing is, both Redmayne and Cooper have near 100% chances of returning to the race either next year, or in the future.

    Keaton is less certain. If voters think about it in terms of logic of who doesn’t have the best chance to be here again, then Keaton will win. If they truly go for the best, strongest performance in their favourite film, then Cooper could win.

    Of course, it could be that voting is just going one way, and all the hype is being made because this has always been the category that has the biggest, if not only, question mark over it. I hope there is a genuine three way battle going on. 

    My preference is Redmayne, but like Keaton & Cooper. I predict Keaton will still win. I think a win for Cooper, and the film, may be too controversial for voters to get on board with? 

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    Eddy Q
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    #174890

    Cooper only has a chance if no obvious frontrunner presents himself – when Marcia Gay Harden won with no televised precursor noms, all of her competition each won one of the four precursors. It literally went Hudson-Globe, McDormand-BFCA, Dench-SAG, Walters-BAFTA and finally Harden-Oscar. I love the perfection of that. 

    No one has ever won Oscar with no precursor noms since, so for Cooper to happen, it would have to go Carell for SAG and Cumberbatch for BAFTA or something like that, for the race to be wide open. And it’s much rarer to have an open race in a leading category than in a supporting one. So I seriously doubt Cooper is winning, though I’ve said in the Best Actor thread why I think Redmayne might have the edge (sorry Macbeth!)

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    Ryan Lapierre
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    #174891

    No no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no.

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    dude
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    #174892

    Yes. I think Bradley Cooper IS this movie, and it’s tempting to honor him. He “transformed” himself into the role, which has caught the zeitgeist, it’s his third consecutive nomination, he’s killing it on Broadway, etc. Secondly, Marcia Gay Harden won because Oscar voters watched the movie; they will watch American Sniper. He has momentum. Michael Keaton was ebullient at the Golden Globes; by the Critics Choice Award, it felt like an abundance of riches. SAG needs to feel like the third leg of a four-leg race, not his last hurrah. A lot will come down to how their peers feel personally about the nominees, as well as how, upon reflection, they feel about the movie each represents, and I imagine the actors branch likes Birdman the best. 

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    Macbeth
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    #174893

     I’ve said in the Best Actor thread why I think Redmayne might have the edge (sorry Macbeth!)

    Yeah I saw your post and I agree with your points – but the only difference is that Keaton could still win BAFTA – they don’t necessarily have to go with the British nominee, because sometimes they do go with the American (last year McConaughey would’ve won BAFTA if he was eligible and nominated, no doubt) – and Keaton did win the London Critics Circle Award for Best Actor last week, and that would have been an easy get for Redmayne. Redmayne actually isn’t as strong as we think to be perfectly honest – all he has is that he is playing a well-known figure going through a delibitating disease. He isn’t well-known, he isn’t particularly in a very strong movie and he isn’t generally that strong. I think we make the assumption that baity role = Oscar. Yet they have proven that sometimes voters do go for a once in a lifetime tour-de-force performance – such as Cate Blanchett last year.

    The fact is that Eddie Redmayne has won a grand total of four awards – a Golden Globe, a Hollywood Film Award for Breakthrough Actor, New York Film Critics Online Award for Best Actor and Gay and Lesbian Entertainment Critics Association for Best Actor. The thing about Zellweger and Kidman is at least they more or less split, and neither of them won the BFCA, which went to Julianne Moore. Keaton has won (and I think this is my eighth time saying it) THIRTY-SIX awards and counting. If Keaton wins SAG and Redmayne wins BAFTA, Redmayne will have the GG-BAFTA combination, while Keaton will have the GG-SAG-BFCA-NBR combination. This all comes down to whoever wins SAG on Sunday, but voting on peers, I don’t see why Keaton can’t win that. In the end, I think Keaton has the Oscar, and Redmayne is either second or third. I just see absolutely no passion behind Redmayne’s performance other than the buzz and the fact that he is thirsty for the win. If he had more critics awards, like even just less than a dozen, maybe. But BAFTA isn’t even a sure thing for him at this point – just because he is British doesn’t mean BAFTA will give it to him (Jean Dujardin, Mickey Rourke, Forest Whitaker, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Jamie Foxx, Bill Murray say hi). But let’s see – maybe Redmayne wins SAG on Sunday and I can just leave this entire thing alone and not have to worry about my favorite winning 

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    Macbeth
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    #174894

    Yes. I think Bradley Cooper IS this movie, and it’s tempting to honor him. He “transformed” himself into the role, which has caught the zeitgeist, it’s his third consecutive nomination, he’s killing it on Broadway, etc.  

    Well, one can argue that Eddie Redmayne did the exact same thing for The Theory of Everything, and so did Michael Keaton for Birdman (although they didn’t transform themselves physically like Cooper, and transformation doesn’t always work)  

    The third consecutive nomination story is the scary part, but remember that it isn’t a set in stone rule that you have to win on your third nomination consecutively – sometimes you do (Zellweger, Nicholson), sometimes you don’t (Taylor, Pacino, Brando). With Cooper being very visible and notable as a leading man, it is kinda obvious that he can win as early as next year. 
     

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    Sasha
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    #174895
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    moviefan61794
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    #174896

    [quote=”dude543″]Yes. I think Bradley Cooper IS this movie, and it’s tempting to honor him. He “transformed” himself into the role, which has caught the zeitgeist, it’s his third consecutive nomination, he’s killing it on Broadway, etc.  

    Well, one can argue that Eddie Redmayne did the exact same thing for The Theory of Everything, and so did Michael Keaton for Birdman (although they didn’t transform themselves physically like Cooper, and transformation doesn’t always work)  

    The third consecutive nomination story is the scary part, but remember that it isn’t a set in stone rule that you have to win on your third nomination consecutively – sometimes you do (Zellweger, Nicholson), sometimes you don’t (Taylor, Pacino, Brando). With Cooper being very visible and notable as a leading man, it is kinda obvious that he can win as early as next year. 
     [/quote]

    I’d argue Redmayne physically transformed himself for the role. That’s part of the acclaim, isn’t it? Or have I been reading his buzz all wrong? 

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    Macbeth
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    #174897

    [quote=”EmmyFan123″][quote=”dude543″]Yes. I think Bradley Cooper IS this movie, and it’s tempting to honor him. He “transformed” himself into the role, which has caught the zeitgeist, it’s his third consecutive nomination, he’s killing it on Broadway, etc.  

    Well, one can argue that Eddie Redmayne did the exact same thing for The Theory of Everything, and so did Michael Keaton for Birdman (although they didn’t transform themselves physically like Cooper, and transformation doesn’t always work)  

    The third consecutive nomination story is the scary part, but remember that it isn’t a set in stone rule that you have to win on your third nomination consecutively – sometimes you do (Zellweger, Nicholson), sometimes you don’t (Taylor, Pacino, Brando). With Cooper being very visible and notable as a leading man, it is kinda obvious that he can win as early as next year. 
     [/quote]

    I’d argue Redmayne physically transformed himself for the role. That’s part of the acclaim, isn’t it? Or have I been reading his buzz all wrong? [/quote]

    No, The Theory of Everything wasn’t shot in order, so the scenes when the illness has completely taken over did not require any bodily changes – I think 90% of Redmayne’s acclaim comes from the fact that he got the spirit of Hawking correct, and also because he is playing a real life person with a disability. I don’t think he did any physical changes to his body for the performance. But if we’re going by transformation, then David Oyelowo (who gained 30lbs) and Jake Gyllenhaal should have also been nominated, and they had more impressive performances and transformations than Cooper. 

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    PoweR
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    #174898

    Can he win? Yes. Will he win? No.

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    Nessie
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    #174899

    Won’t Sarah Palin’s ringing endorsement be enough to sink both Cooper and the film’s chances?

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    Eddy Q
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    #174900

    [quote=”Wilkomirsk11″]
     I’ve said in the Best Actor thread why I think Redmayne might have the edge (sorry Macbeth!)

    Yeah I saw your post and I agree with your points – but the only difference is that Keaton could still win BAFTA – they don’t necessarily have to go with the British nominee, because sometimes they do go with the American (last year McConaughey would’ve won BAFTA if he was eligible and nominated, no doubt) – and Keaton did win the London Critics Circle Award for Best Actor last week, and that would have been an easy get for Redmayne. Redmayne actually isn’t as strong as we think to be perfectly honest – all he has is that he is playing a well-known figure going through a delibitating disease. He isn’t well-known, he isn’t particularly in a very strong movie and he isn’t generally that strong. I think we make the assumption that baity role = Oscar. Yet they have proven that sometimes voters do go for a once in a lifetime tour-de-force performance – such as Cate Blanchett last year.

    The fact is that Eddie Redmayne has won a grand total of four awards – a Golden Globe, a Hollywood Film Award for Breakthrough Actor, New York Film Critics Online Award for Best Actor and Gay and Lesbian Entertainment Critics Association for Best Actor. The thing about Zellweger and Kidman is at least they more or less split, and neither of them won the BFCA, which went to Julianne Moore. Keaton has won (and I think this is my eighth time saying it) THIRTY-SIX awards and counting. If Keaton wins SAG and Redmayne wins BAFTA, Redmayne will have the GG-BAFTA combination, while Keaton will have the GG-SAG-BFCA-NBR combination. This all comes down to whoever wins SAG on Sunday, but voting on peers, I don’t see why Keaton can’t win that. In the end, I think Keaton has the Oscar, and Redmayne is either second or third. I just see absolutely no passion behind Redmayne’s performance other than the buzz and the fact that he is thirsty for the win. If he had more critics awards, like even just less than a dozen, maybe. But BAFTA isn’t even a sure thing for him at this point – just because he is British doesn’t mean BAFTA will give it to him (Jean Dujardin, Mickey Rourke, Forest Whitaker, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Jamie Foxx, Bill Murray say hi). But let’s see – maybe Redmayne wins SAG on Sunday and I can just leave this entire thing alone and not have to worry about my favorite winning [/quote]

    Wow, lots to take in there. I’ll start with something not entirely relevant to this year’s race but which you mentioned in passing, which is McConaughey winning BAFTA had he been nominated. I strongly disagree. Yes, BAFTA sometimes goes for Americans over Brits, but that’s usually when the American is a strong frontrunner all season long and the Brit isn’t even remotely a frontrunner. Ejiofor was the lead actor in the eventual Best Picture winner, and was presumed a slight frontrunner for a while. Even though that didn’t turn out to be, he was strong enough in the race to claim that typical BAFTA Brit win like Colin Firth in A Single Man and Imelda Staunton in Vera Drake. (Firth beat Jeff Bridges, and although Hilary Swank wasn’t nominated for M$B no one should deceive themselves even for a minute that if she had she would’ve beaten Staunton at BAFTA.) Ejiofor is very well respected by the British film and TV insiders, and is also an Olivier Award winner (for Othello) so he immediately gets support from any theatre-film crossovers. All this stuff about DiCaprio possibly winning BAFTA last year was bollocks in my opinion. He was way off.

    Which brings me to this year. Even if Redmayne isn’t a frontrunner for the Oscar, he’s strong enough in the race to be way ahead at BAFTA for reasons I’ve given above (and this could even apply to Cumberbatch, though not so much). I wouldn’t look too much into the London Critics Awards – they’re critics, so they’re not gonna have as much bias towards home talent (at least, one would hope). Anyway, they have a British Actor category which they gave to Timothy Spall, so that kept them covered for awarding Brits. BAFTA doesn’t have that option. 

    And then there’s all of Keaton’s critics awards, none of which are really relevant to the Oscar race with the exception of NBR (where he tied with Oscar Isaac) and BFCA. Ejiofor won a good number of those minor critics awards last year, and it got him nothing in the end except bragging rights. I take your point about Keaton’s possible GG-NBR-BFCA-SAG combo, which would make him very strong even without BAFTA. To be honest, I’m far less confident about Redmayne’s chances than you seem to be about Keatons. Sure, Keaton could easily still win Oscar at this point, so I won’t consider myself proven wrong if he does. I’d argue more profusely against his BAFTA chances, so if he wins there, I am prepared to eat humble pie and grovel at your feet.

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    Anonymous
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    #174901

    Who over who?

    You mean, do they have a chance next to my Eddie? Nah. Nope. No.

    I think Cooper doesn’t have a chance and Keaton is winning.

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