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February 5, 2018 at 8:14 pm #1202488216
I am getting this strange feeling, similar to how I felt when everyone was claiming Robbie for lead actress, but I knew McDormand would come back swinging. I remember reading that when Kate Hepburn won Oscar #4, many thought Meryl was going to win that year. Meryl had won the GG, BAFTA, and LAFCAA. I have a feeling that Day-Lewis will pull the upset here. Plus his film performed well with nominations. Also, there could be a backlash against the front runner due to domestic case.
What do you guys think?February 5, 2018 at 8:52 pm #1202488235
Not for Phantom Thread. If he isn’t actually retiring for good he could win a 4th eventually.February 5, 2018 at 9:35 pm #1202488250
If Tim doesn’t upset Oldman, Washington is the alternative.February 5, 2018 at 10:09 pm #1202488259
I posted about this a few weeks ago, and everyone answered with a very strong NO. Some people said he wouldn’t even be nominated which is ridiculous. It’s a long shot for sure, but I wouldn’t completely count him out.February 5, 2018 at 11:01 pm #1202488270
Day-Lewis has no major precursor support. He has a Globe (lost to Oldman), Critics’ Choice (lost to Oldman) and a BAFTA nomination. He’s likely to lose the BAFTA to Oldman.
He has no SAG nomination. He didn’t win a single major critics’ group (and the NY presented Phantom Thread with screenplay). How is he an option for #4? Especially given that Streep will be there as well. Nope, they won’t give him a fourth. He’s not the legend some people pretend he is. He has 6 career nominations and he is a respected actor but far away from earning a fourth. And precursors don’t support a fourth. Not to mention that we have a strong front-runner. If Oldman somehow loses, which won’t happen, Chalamet will take it.February 5, 2018 at 11:36 pm #1202488287
He’s not the legend some people pretend he is.
Lol okay. Talk to any actor, even ones older than him.
And the lack of a SAG nomination I thought everyone knew was because they didn’t have broad access to PT during the nominating processFebruary 5, 2018 at 11:38 pm #1202488288
If Tim doesn’t upset Oldman, Washington is the alternative.
Exactly. You know your performance is truly loved if there are other actors going out of their way to offer unsolicited praise on Twitter, as quite a few did for Washington in Roman J. Israel Esq. Plus, I’m betting there could be some strong I.O.U. sentiment towards Washington after his loss for Fences to Affleck’s wannabe-subtle mumbling mess of a performance in Manchester. If it isn’t frontrunner Oldman or breakout star Chalamet, it will be SAG and Globe nominee Washington.February 5, 2018 at 11:53 pm #1202488298
D-Wash was probably James Franco’s runner-up until the allegations ruined Franco’s chances. While DDL doesn’t have a realistic shot at winning, his film was clearly loved by many Academy members. As a nominee for a prestige film that is also nominated in multiple other categories, he is much more likely to upset than D-Wash who sneaked in at the last minute as a sole nominee for a film that didn’t impress anyone.
Even Daniel Kaluuya’s odds are better than those of D-Wash. Really though, the only one with an actual shot at crashing this party is T-Chal.February 5, 2018 at 11:58 pm #1202488299
Idk. He had no precursor wins, plus he didn’t have any noticeable support of major critics’ group. And he is not campaigning basically. I think the last time he attended anything was GG. Also idk if his type of role in Phantom Thread is really 4th Oscar caliber one.
I also don’t think any actor ever won Oscar as BA without at least being nominated for SAG (but I don’t know the statistics).February 6, 2018 at 12:20 am #1202488304
Is it me or is every thread a retread?
WILL WIN: Gary Oldman
SHOULD WIN: Timothee Chalamet
1. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
2. Daniel Day Lewis, Phantom Thread
3. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
4. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
5. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
This is Oldman’s to lose – though I would love to see a younger actor acknowledged.February 6, 2018 at 4:35 am #1202488401
There is no backlash against Oldman and he’s winning. End of.February 6, 2018 at 5:23 am #1202488419
That story that ran on the Daily Mail ended up being too little. Nothing has happened with him. This is a story we either knew or imagined and everybody still predicted, nominated and rewarded him. It still makes no sense to go with somebody else. We’re not even in Casey Affleck territory yet. Unless somebody huge in the US picks this up and it starts going around everywhere, Oldman is still your winner.
And fuck no Daniel Day Lewis isn’t winning. Precursos can go screw themselves, the Oscars have said it before with Harden (twice), Shannon (twice), Weaver and so on, but things have to happen to support that and with Phantom Thread all that happened was a big showing on nominations day, the film hasn’t really made any splash, it hasn’t become a thing, box office hit, people aren’t talking about it, nothing to push Day-Lewis forward. Not that Call Me…is a phenomenon, but at least it’s been around forever and it’s been an actual part of the race to establish Chalamet as the runner-up/alternative. The other three won’t win.February 6, 2018 at 5:38 am #1202488428
the film hasn’t really made any splash, it hasn’t become a thing, box office hit, people aren’t talking about it, nothing to push Day-Lewis forward.
That really surprised me tbh. It’s the last movie of DDL’s career and it made so little waves in general.
That said, Academy really respects DDL a lot, so that alone can establish him as the runner-up/alternative (in theory).
Also about backlash in general. Idk, for example there isn’t any significant backlash against Kobe Bryant who is a front-runner to win for his Animated Short. He already won Annie for it. And he was accused years ago of rape.
- This reply was modified 1 week, 6 days ago by Dana S..