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December 23, 2015 at 5:10 pm #203665
At this stage, it’s looking less and less likely that “Steve Jobs” will earn a Best Picture nomination. However, it’s curious to see that Aaron’s Sorkin’s script is still #1 to WIN Best Adapted Screenplay according to everyone’s combined odds:
How often does a script win without a corresponding Best Picture nomination? Does anyone have the stats? Thanks!December 23, 2015 at 5:13 pm #203667
I don’t think he’s got a shot at winning, even if Steve Jobs is nominated for Best Picture.
It’s looking more like The Big Short’s to lose every day, although Room seems like the strongest contender between the three female-centric options in this category.December 23, 2015 at 5:27 pm #203668
I am, as usually, clueless about the writing categories. I thought it was between Carol and Brooklyn.December 23, 2015 at 6:11 pm #203669
Steve Jobs won’t win and I am worried that it won’t even be nominated, just like Gillian Flynn last year. She got all the precursors nomination but miss out the Oscar nomination as the Academy hates Gone Girl in general. There are so many contenders in this category, like Carol, Room, Brooklyn, The Big Short, The Revenant, The Martian. I can see Aaron Sorkin being snubbed in favour of the Revenant or the MartianDecember 23, 2015 at 6:12 pm #203670
I’ll wait until the WGA awards, but right now I think “Room” and “The Big Short” have more chances of winning.December 23, 2015 at 6:37 pm #203672
In the last 20 years it’s only happened twice that the winner here wasn’t nommed for Best Pic (Gods & Mosters in 1998 was the last.), and only four times in original screenplay (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind in 2004). So that’s 34 for 40 overlap and not once amongst the 12 awardees since the Academy expanded past 5 Best Pic nominees. So I’d say that the odds aren’t great. However, Aaron Sorkin is a star amongst writers and actors, and that love for him might help if it’s a close race.December 23, 2015 at 6:43 pm #203673
Pulling the stats back even further, in the last 30 years the overlap is 53 for 60 with the sole exception being Thelma & Louise. And all 7 winners without a Best Pic nom would all seem likely to have been on an expanded list like we have today with the possible exception of Talk to Her but I think a case could even be made for that one a la Amour.December 23, 2015 at 6:55 pm #203674
And when you pull it back a decade further, its odds look even longer because it’s another 19 for 20 (Melvin & Howard in 1980) so 72 for 80 overall for the last 40 years. That’s 90%. I think going back further is futile since barely any of those members are even alive let alone active in the Academy.December 23, 2015 at 6:59 pm #203675
Thanks tennisfreak!December 24, 2015 at 10:48 am #203676
I agree with Monty
Steve Jobs may not get nominated at all!!December 24, 2015 at 10:58 am #203677
Since 1953 only Sling Blade and Gods and Monsters have won Adapted Screenplay without a Best Picture nomination. In both of those cases they were competing against only one Best Picture nominee, The English Patient and The Thin Red Line respectively. While we do have to account for an expanded BP lineup, Steve Jobs has The Big Short, Brooklyn, Carol, The Revenant and Room to contend with for Adapted Screenplay, all of which are likelier BP nominees. Sorkin can be nominated, but he sure as hell ain’t winning. (I’ve now joined the Big Short train, sight unseen, and I’m surprised none of the experts are predicting it to win.)
In fact I’ve just ditched Steve Jobs from my screenplay predix altogether, in favour of 45 Years! You have to take a gamble sometimes.December 24, 2015 at 11:09 am #203678
These are some of the ‘winners’ for Screenplay over the past twenty-five years for works without a Best Picture Nomination:
Thelma and Louise
The Usual Suspects
Gods and Monsters
Melvin and Howard
Talk to Her
If I forgot any, sorry.
Most of these winners also had Directors and Actors in the running, some of whom won.
So I will guess that Jobs will get that screenplay nod, one of the better aspect of the film imo.
I’ll stick my neck out again and say that Fassbender is far from out of this race.December 24, 2015 at 11:22 am #203679
Only the Screen Actors Guild has had a say, so the industry still has not spoken regarding this race. Until (and only until) the Producers Guild weighs in, we cannot discount any film.
I don’t believe Steve Jobs is as out as all critics and pundits think.December 29, 2015 at 8:44 pm #203680
I don’t mind it getting a writing nomination because this movie is oddly a writing showcase behind anything else. It’s Sorkin being very “showy” about “look how ive structured this movie”. It’s not a great movie by any means, and the last 20 mins or so are awful.
So yeah, it in NO WAY deserves a Best Picture nomination, nor will it get it.
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