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Can Steve McQueen win Best Director?

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  • Big Explosions
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    #139490

    It seems like a lot of people (including myself) are predicting a 12 Years a Slave/Alfonso Cuaron split, but is anybody else noticing eerie similarities to the Best Director race of 2000?

    A director wins nearly all of the precursor awards for a film that isn’t the favorite to win Best Picture (Ang Lee) but then loses at the Oscars to a director who made a film with a big social message and big ensemble of actors (Soderbergh). Also, I think McQueen is the favorite at the BAFTA, which Ang Lee won as well.

    Also, Best Director (in both split years and match years) goes to films that are respected, when Best Picture goes to films that are “loved.” Think The Pianist winning director, Chicago winning picture. Or Saving Private Ryan winning director, Shakespeare in Love winning picture. 12 Years a Slave seems to have the “respect” factor.

    Now I’m not trying to push my personal preference (if it were up to me, Her would win picture and Martion Scorsese would win director). I’ve just been noticing a lot of things that Steve McQueen seems to have going for him.

    Does anybody else agree?

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    Jason Travis
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    #139492

    I could def see Steve McQueen winning Best Director- and it will be interesting to see what BAFTA does. 

    I do think one thing this year, and that is that what ever film wins Best Picture will win Best Director. I don’t think we’re going to have 2 consecutive years where the film that wins best picture doesn’t win best director. I know last year was an exception, but I just don’t see it playing out that way. Currently I am predicting Gravity to win Picture and Director, but I still can’t get that passion of support you could feel when 12 Years a Slave won Drama Picture at the Golden Globes. This is a close race and anything is possible.  

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    Beau S.
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    #139493

    As you point out, it wouldn’t be historically unprecedented but remember that Soderbergh did have two director nominations in one year.

    I think Cuaron is the clear favorite, but a McQueen win at BAFTA would definitely jeopardize that status.

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    DominicCobb
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    #139494

    I’m predicting Gravity for BP and BD, but if 12 Years takes Picture it’ll probably take director, too. Consider the preferential ballot. Gravity, a crowd pleaser, is more likely to take those number 2 spots than 12 Years, which it seems like you either love or hate. The preferential ballot will be doing 12 Years no favors. So if it does win BP, it’ll probably be from number 1 votes. BD is a popular vote, and if enough people have 12 Years in first place for Picture, I think they’ll have it in first place for Director as well (for example I would).

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    Renaton
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    #139495

    BAFTA directors don’t have a history of upsetting at the Oscars. Where are the wins for Tim Burton, Peter Weir and David Fincher? I think the BAFTA connection is not that important.

    McQueen can win, but it’s not because of BAFTA. It’s because he is director of one of the two frontrunners (which means he does have support), and because it would be a chance to have the first black director winner ever.

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    Eddy Q
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    #139496

    I’m not sure McQueen is the favourite at BAFTA. Cuaron is very well respected in the UK film industry, and they don’t always go for the British choice – even David Fincher beat Tom Hooper at BAFTA despite King’s Speech sweeping elsewhere. And BAFTA also love Gravity.

    The reason I’m sticking with a split for Oscar is because we’ve seen that play out over and over again, with regional critics groups, Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice. Of course the voter crossover is minimal to none, but Oscar voters are sheep. When people were wrongly predicting a split for Kings Speech/Social Network, Social Network was winning both at most critics groups, and King’s Speech won both at guilds. It was either one or the other.

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    Jason Travis
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    #139497

    Speaking of the 

    Preferential Ballot-

    Does anyone think it makes a difference in what film wins Best Picture? The Hurt Locker, The King’s Speech, The Artist, and Argo were all favored to win Best Picture by the time the Oscars telecast. I am betting that if voters just circled their favorite vs. doing it with the preferential Ballot, the same movies would have prevailed. 

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    benbraddock
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    #139498

    I think MCQUEEN will win in the end!!!!!!

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    Eddy Q
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    #139499

    Speaking of the 

    Preferential Ballot-

    Does anyone think it makes a difference in what film wins Best Picture? The Hurt Locker, The King’s Speech, The Artist, and Argo were all favored to win Best Picture by the time the Oscars telecast. I am betting that if voters just circled their favorite vs. doing it with the preferential Ballot, the same movies would have prevailed. 

    That’s because they were all clear favourites by a certain point in the season. Here we have a real race, and it’s entirely plausible that different voting systems could provide different winners.

    put it in bold because the quote things going weird

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    Cheshire
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    #139500

    I hope Steve McQueen wins but Alfonso Cuaron is winning.

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    endaugust
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    #139501

    Likeliest scenarios #1 being the most.

    1. 12YAS/Cuaron
    2. 12YAS/McQueen
    3. Hustle/Cuaron  <==== Man! this would just suck!
    4. Gravity/Cuaron

    Yes, as someone mentioned above, the 12YAS/Cuaron splits have consistently happened since the Globes, over and over again, including the various critic groups during this latter period (who normally have their own voice).  It seems like people are just resigning over this pattern, as they can’t seem to get behind one single film.  So this seems to be the only way to make both camps happy.

    I don’t think there’s ever been this kind of consistency with the BP/BD award splits before.  People predicted the TKS/Fincher split, but the guilds didn’t indicate that.

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    Atypical
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    #139502

    It seems like the BP/BD split is becoming more and more of a possibility between “12 Years a Slave” and “Gravity.” McQueen wins both way as one of the producers and/or as director, and same goes for Cuaron. That’s a livable compromise for those two camps within the Academy, I’m guessing.

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    Asgaroth
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    #139503

    ¿Can he win? Of course he can. He’s nominated. The real question is if he is the favorite. But so far nothing seems to suggest that is the situation.

    Personally I want him to win. Not because of external factors such as “he would be the first black director ever to win, let’s make history!” but because he is indeed the best among the 5. I thought he directed 12 Years flawlessly.

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    Nessie
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    #139504

    Whilst I think 12 Years will (deservedly) take Best Picture, Gravity obviously will take Best Brit Film and I think Cuaron (who lives and works in London) will look more British than McQueen. I think Cuaron will take the BAFTA.

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    Tyler The Awesome Guy
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    #139505

    I think that he is a dark horse to win it. If they love Twelve Years a Slave enough, then I think it could justify them to give the award to McQueen (also I am not a fan of Gravity, so I will cringe if Cuaron wins a-fucking-gain).

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