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Can Straight Outta Compton really be a BP nominee with only 2 noms?

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  • benutty
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    #209072

    20/25 of the Gold Derby experts currently have STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON listed as one of their 10 likeliest Best Picture nominees. Two of those experts have BP as its only nomination (highly unlikely in reality).

    The only other categories these 20 experts have the film listed is Original Screenplay, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing.

    Overall Gold Derby odds have it projected to be nominated in only two fields, just outside the top 5 in one and as a longshot in the other:
    Best Picture – 10th (22/1 odds)
    Sound Mixing – 5th (11/1 odds)
    Original Screenplay – 6th (25/1 odds)
    Sound Editing – 10th (100/1 odds)

    If it does indeed get a Best Picture nomination and a Sound Mixing nomination (as in the overall odds) then it would be in SELMA and EXTREMELY LOUD & INCREDIBLY CLOSE territory of being a 2-nomination BP nominee.

    Is it actually likely that SOC is nominated in that scenario?–especially when both SELMA and EL&IC had actual contenders in much more high profile fields (acting, song, screenplay, director)?

    For clarity, here’s the categories the experts threw SOC other nominations in addition to Best Picture:
    Thelma Adams (2): Original Screenplay 
    Matt Atchity (3): Original Screenplay, Sound Mixing
    Tim Gray (4): Original Screenplay, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing
    Pete Hammond (1)
    Dave Karger (3): Original Screenplay, Sound Mixing
    Tariq Khan (3): Original Screenplay, Sound Mixing
    Jack Matthews (2): Original Screenplay 
    Michael Musto (3): Original Screenplay, Sound Mixing
    Tom O’Neil (3): Original Screenplay, Sound Mixing
    Kevin Polowy (2): Sound Mixing
    Christopher Rosen (2): Sound Mixing
    Paul Sheehan (2): Sound Mixing
    Keith Simanton (1)
    Nicole Sperling (3): Original Screenplay, Sound Mixing
    Sasha Stone (3): Original Screenplay, Sound Mixing
    Anne Thompson (2): Sound Mixing
    Peter Travers (2): Sound Mixing
    Brian Truitt (3): Original Screenplay, Sound Mixing
    Glenn Whipp (2): Sound Mixing
    Susan Wloszczyna (3): Original Screenplay, Sound Mixing

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    benutty
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    #576327

    20/25 of the Gold Derby experts currently have STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON listed as one of their 10 likeliest Best Picture nominees. Two of those experts have BP as its only nomination (highly unlikely in reality).

    The only other categories these 20 experts have the film listed is Original Screenplay, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing.

    Overall Gold Derby odds have it projected to be nominated in only two fields, just outside the top 5 in one and as a longshot in the other:
    Best Picture – 10th (22/1 odds)
    Sound Mixing – 5th (11/1 odds)
    Original Screenplay – 6th (25/1 odds)
    Sound Editing – 10th (100/1 odds)

    If it does indeed get a Best Picture nomination and a Sound Mixing nomination (as in the overall odds) then it would be in SELMA and EXTREMELY LOUD & INCREDIBLY CLOSE territory of being a 2-nomination BP nominee.

    Is it actually likely that SOC is nominated in that scenario?–especially when both SELMA and EL&IC had actual contenders in much more high profile fields (acting, song, screenplay, director)?

    For clarity, here’s the categories the experts threw SOC other nominations in addition to Best Picture:
    Thelma Adams (2): Original Screenplay 
    Matt Atchity (3): Original Screenplay, Sound Mixing
    Tim Gray (4): Original Screenplay, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing
    Pete Hammond (1)
    Dave Karger (3): Original Screenplay, Sound Mixing
    Tariq Khan (3): Original Screenplay, Sound Mixing
    Jack Matthews (2): Original Screenplay 
    Michael Musto (3): Original Screenplay, Sound Mixing
    Tom O’Neil (3): Original Screenplay, Sound Mixing
    Kevin Polowy (2): Sound Mixing
    Christopher Rosen (2): Sound Mixing
    Paul Sheehan (2): Sound Mixing
    Keith Simanton (1)
    Nicole Sperling (3): Original Screenplay, Sound Mixing
    Sasha Stone (3): Original Screenplay, Sound Mixing
    Anne Thompson (2): Sound Mixing
    Peter Travers (2): Sound Mixing
    Brian Truitt (3): Original Screenplay, Sound Mixing
    Glenn Whipp (2): Sound Mixing
    Susan Wloszczyna (3): Original Screenplay, Sound Mixing

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    Damiansport1
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    #209074

    yes. I have SOC in best picture and sound mixing

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    Rinolo Twenty-two
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    #209075

    Well, if Spotlight can get in with only a screenplay nomination, and Selma could with Best original song, it could happen.

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    Rooney Moore
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    #209076


    If it does indeed get a Best Picture nomination and a Sound Mixing nomination (as in the overall odds) then it would be in SELMA and EXTREMELY LOUD & INCREDIBLY CLOSE territory of being a 2-nomination BP nominee.

    Is it actually likely that SOC is nominated in that scenario?–especially when both SELMA and EL&IC had actual contenders in much more high profile fields (acting, song, screenplay, director)?

    How is Original Song is a high profile field, though? It may be a cool category with famous and fun winners but I’d say it’s the most irrelevant one regarding Best Picture chances ,even more irrelevant than Visual Effects because you don’t even need to watch or like the movie in contention to vote for its song. Although I don’t buy it, the fact that Furious 7 and Fifty Shades of Grey are being seen as the frontrunners in that category this year, proves the movie’s quality or visibility is insignificant.
    Selma definitely would have been nominated if it weren’t for ”Glory”. And it would be the first Best Picture nominee with only one nomination, so we’re not looking into something unprecedented.

    I believe The Blind Side also fits in this group as it only had Sandra Bullock as only other nominee.So when these underdogs find their way into the biggest field, usually acting branch is to blame since they’re the biggest group with most power in their hands.

    I can see the premise of this thread. How can a movie be nominated at the top category if it’s not even competitive in any others? But this year, voting is so splintered that we’ll either get only 5-6 Best Picture nominees or one or more of them will end up with only 1-2 nominations. And unless its SAG nomination is a fluke like BONN’s, it is indicating a little bit of support from the biggest branch in Academy as well. Add that to its PGA&WGA nominations. They’ve had one of the most consistent awards run on this confusing year. But of course, both of those guilds had 10 solid slots that were waiting to be filled.(WGA also had a bunch of ineligible contenders.) And guilds always skew more populist choice due to their bigger membership. Its biggest disadvantage is that not many of voters will rank it first on the preferential ballot, but I don’t see how it can miss if we have more than 9+ nominations on the top field. So I can’t blame the experts who put this film in their 10th slot, just in case.
    You also have this: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscars-straight-outta-compton-could-815656

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    benutty
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    #209077

    How is Original Song is a high profile field, though? It may be a cool category with famous and fun winners but I’d say it’s the most irrelevant one regarding Best Picture chances ,even more irrelevant than Visual Effects because you don’t even need to watch or like the movie in contention to vote for its song. 

    My concern isn’t that Song is a BP-indicator, but that moreso than Sound Mixing and Sound Editing, Song is a category that the casual voter is not only more aware of the nominees, but can also understand the concept of. My point is that a popular song by popular recording artists associated with a film, like “Glory” for Selma, raises the profile of the film that it is attached to. The name of a sound mixer or sound editor, or even extensive media coverage of those races, does not raise the profile of their films in the mind of a casual voter.

    Obviously the acting branch and acting races carry more weight, which is why 2-nominee BP contenders usually get their 2nd in acting.

    The point is that for all intents and purposes, Straight Outta Compton is looking like it could be a BP nominee and that’s its only nomination. Which would be UNPRECEDENTED and kind of insane, even given the volatility of this year. 

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    Filmatelist
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    #209078

    I seriously doubt the Sound and Screenplay nods are likely to happen, so if SOC really does a Best Pic nod (something I’m also not predicting), then I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the only thing it’s up for.

    People keep citing the “musical” element, but when that category has embraced biopics, they were for more legendary subjects (heck, Ray Charles & Johnny Cash have postage stamps) and not for more contemporary subjects.  Ditto, the musical adaptations: CHICAGO, DREAMGIRLS, LES MIS are all period pieces with larger production values (Art Direction, Costume).  The late 80s may be in the past, but I doubt it’s a source of nostaligia for most members of that (white/elderly) branch.  So I’m skeptical. 

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    tennisfreak
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    #209079

    It’s not exactly UNPRECEDENTED just unprecedented since they upped the cap to more than 5 nominees. This used to happen all the time in the 1930’s and even happened as recently as 1943 when The Ox Bow Incident was nominated in the last year with more than 5 best pic nominees for best picture and nothing else.

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    benutty
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    #209080

    It’s not exactly UNPRECEDENTED just unprecedented since they upped the cap to more than 5 nominees. This used to happen all the time in the 1930’s and even happened as recently as 1943 when The Ox Bow Incident was nominated in the last year with more than 5 best pic nominees for best picture and nothing else.

    I mean are we really going to suggest that statistics from the first 20 years of the Academy Awards have any bearing on whether or not something can/will happen today, almost 90 years later? 

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    tennisfreak
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    #209081

    They used the same methodology for selecting best picture (minus the 5% rule) so yeah if it could mathematically happen then it could mathematically happen now. Plus all I said was it wouldn’t be a precedent. I frankly don’t care if it does or doesn’t happen.

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    DominicCobb
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    #209082

    I say it’s definitely possible and most likely going to happen. I’d warn against people justifying the BP prediction with other noms that are less likely (Screenplay, Sound Editing). I think most of us last year would have predicted if Selma got into Picture it would also get one or more of Director, Actor, or Screenplay, but it of course didn’t. It’s possible to have a film with really passionate support across the branches that’ll make it into BP and not much else.

    You’re also forgetting The Blind Side and A Serious Man. 

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    RicosMama
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    #209083

    I have it predicted to get the same amount of awards as Spotlight so sure why not. I actually have Sicario picking up more then both so I’ve moved it into the best picture race.

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    tennisfreak
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    #209084

    I say it’s definitely possible and most likely going to happen. I’d warn against people justifying the BP prediction with other noms that are less likely (Screenplay, Sound Editing). I think most of us last year would have predicted if Selma got into Picture it would also get one or more of Director, Actor, or Screenplay, but it of course didn’t. It’s possible to have a film with really passionate support across the branches that’ll make it into BP and not much else.

    You’re also forgetting The Blind Side and A Serious Man. 

    Also there are the branches that don’t have separate categories or have categories that have no bearing on Best Pic: casting directors, documentaries, executives, producers, public relations and members of the short films part of short films/animation. That’s a pretty sizeable pool to act as a wild card.

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    Cameron M. Gambas Johnson
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    #209085

    PGA makes it very possible, and I hope it gets in. It’s like 9th or 10th for me. Won’t be too surprised either way.

    Do you guys think it’s a possibility for editing, or is that a long shot? I have it for mixing.  

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