Cinematography Oscar – Deakins’s Chances

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  • AlexK24
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    #214069

    Many people predict that Emmanuel Lubezki will get a third Oscar in a row (for “The Revenant”). But how likely is that? Doesn’t the Academy like to “split the wealth”?

     

    What about Roger Deakins? Is there any chance that he will get a career Oscar (for “Sicario”)?

     

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    VRC
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    #214071

    None. This is a fight between The Revenant and Mad Max Fury Road. 

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    Sean
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    #214072

    A “Revenant” wave would put both Lubezki and Inarritu in the history books, but do voters really think in those terms outside of acting races?

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    BenitoDelicias
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    #214073

    As usual, his chances are zero (except for 2007). I really hope he gets an Oscar soon. 

    It’s pretty much between The Revenant and Mad Max. 

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    CanadianFan
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    #214074

    The Deakins narrative is so strong at this point (it just keeps building), that he can get nominations for things like ‘Prisoners’, ‘Unbroken’, and ‘Sicario’. No other cinematographer would have been able to land those nods.

    I expect him to win for his next BP nominee, so probably ‘Hail, Caesar!’.

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    Emil Petrov
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    #214075

    The only man who has a real shot at upseting Lubezki is John Seale. The ASC and BAFTA will tell. 

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    Eddy Q
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    #214076

    As long as Deakins keeps up the great work he is doing, he will never win an Oscar. Unless he’s nominated for a BP frontrunner and/or he has a lack of flashier or prettier competition. 

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    seabel
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    #214077

    I wish Edward Lachman could surprise.

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    AlexK24
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    #214078

    Four people (including Lubezki) have won the Cinematography Oscar two years in a row. No one has ever won this Oscar three years in a row.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Academy_Award_for_Best_Cinematography

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    AlexK24
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    #214079

    I do have another question about Lubezki vs. Deakins.

    Deakins was nominated for “True Grit”. Many people thought he would win because he was photographing the frontier/wilderness, which provides endless beauty.

    In “The Revenant”, Lubezki is photographing the frontier/wilderness.

    Why will Lubezki win, when Deakins lost?

     

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    Emil Petrov
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    #214080

    I do have another question about Lubezki vs. Deakins.

    Deakins was nominated for “True Grit”. Many people thought he would win because he was photographing the frontier/wilderness, which provides endless beauty.

    In “The Revenant”, Lubezki is photographing the frontier/wilderness.

    Why will Lubezki win, when Deakins lost?

     

    Useing natural light and amazing and complex long takes. Two aspects that True Grit did not have.  

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    Zooey the Dreamer
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    #214081

    John Seale is so winning the ASC and the Oscar. Unless The Revenant somehow wins the DGA (and I doubt it), it’s pretty much done. 

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    babypook
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    #214082

    Many people predict that Emmanuel Lubezki will get a third Oscar in a row (for “The Revenant”). But how likely is that? Doesn’t the Academy like to “split the wealth”?

     

    What about Roger Deakins? Is there any chance that he will get a career Oscar (for “Sicario”)?

     

    If they “split the wealth”, it’ll be for John Seale, one of the greatest cinematographers ever. I fell in love with his work after Witness. Perhaps before then.

    I get antsy thinking about Roger Deakens, a guy who now has 13 Oscar nominations with no wins. Was he ‘unlucky’ every time I wonder?

    The good news is in knowing that his colleagues know who and what he is; the greatest Oscar-unheralded cinematographer EVER. ASC has given him four wins, the last one for Skyfall which he deserved (those night time shots aint easy and are spectacular), and a Lifetime Achievement award. Clearly, this isnt putting him “out to pasture”.

    lol.

    Jmho

    He isnt going to win here again. But anyone, barring his retirement (see John Seale) would fall over themselves hoping he says “yes” to their projects.

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    benutty
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    #214083

    The problem with the non-acting races is that narratives that lead to wins have to do with something other than who the artist is because the artist’s name is NOT ON THE BALLOT–a fact that still boggles my mind. Though I suspect the branches have done this to protect against cronyism, the end result is that worthy artists go unrecognized for years.

    Another problem, and this stems, I think, from the expansion of the Best Picture field, is that most below-the-lines now go to BP nominees and/or frontrunners almost by default. Unless a nominee truly stands out and has its own narrative to drive it to a win, voters are going to fall back on the ones they can remember and the ones nominated for BP.

    All this is to say that there is no chance in hell that Lubezki loses this year. Not only did he do work for a BP frontrunner, but his name isn’t on the ballot so any voter that isn’t aware that he won the last two years or isn’t aware that he worked on The Revenant or simply doesn’t care is going to vote for him. The other thing is that there’s a strong narrative for the work that has nothing to do with his name. Just like his narratives for Gravity (new technology) and Birdman (the continuous take), the story of him using natural light is remarkable and will lead to votes.

    Burwell, Richardson and Deakins won’t win because their films aren’t BP nominees and none of them have a strong enough narrative. Seale is a challenger, but I don’t think he’s a threat because the urgency to make sure Mad Max: Fury Road gets something is diffused by the fact that most people will have voted for it in many of the other crafts. 

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    Andrew Carden
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    #214084

    Yeah, not happening, unfortunately. Don’t think it would’ve happened even if “Sicario” garnered a Best Picture nom.

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