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Could DGA Be Wrong Again This Year?

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  • Joe Burns
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    #216408

    As we all know, the DGA is a pretty powerful statisic when it comes to Best Director with it only being wrong 7 times.  It’s usually foolish to bet against it, but since Alejandro did win last year and there is still a good amount of time until the Oscars, do you think it could be wrong again? 

    Let’s take a look back at all the times that DGA did not get it right and why:

    1968(Lion In Winter’s Anthony Harvey loses out to Carol Reed for Oliver): The 60’s were clearly the decade for Movie Musicals with 4 of them all winning the top 2 prizes and since BP and BD usually go hand in hand, Reed was caught up in the mix.  Harvey was do doubt close though.

    1972(Francis Ford Coppola loses BD to Bob Fosse for Cabaret): Cabaret must have come very close to winning BP since it won 8 Oscars and Fosse was a  clearly well respected  artist who they wanted to honor. I would love to see how close this was though. 

    1985(Out Of Africa’s Sydney Pollack triumphs without the DGA winner Steven Speilberg at the Oscars): Public opinion was clearly riding with Speilberg after his snub at the Oscars so his DGA win isn’t shocking in hindsight.  Huston was the frontrunner for the Oscar, but Out Of Africa as well as Pollack must have been too beloved to lose.

    1995(Mel Gibson wins without Appolo 13’s Ron Howard in the race): This was a crazy year with former frontrunners Sense And Sensebility and Apollo 13 being snubbed from the director race.  I can’t really explain Howard’s snub, but Gibson clearly won due to the support for Braveheart.  Howard won the DGA due to sympathy of course. 

    2000(Steven Soderbergh  triumphs for Traffic and beats  DGA winner Ang Lee):   Soderbergh’s two film triumph as well as the fact that Traffic nearly beat Gladiator for BP explains his win over Lee.  I think Oscar voters considered the Best Foreign Language Film prize to be enough for  the film and I think the film was respected, but was too  un-American for Oscar voters.  

    2002(DGA winner Rob Marshall loses to Roman Polanski): A surprising win, but there was clearly a lot of passion for The Pianist,  as well as a desire to welcome Polanski back into the fold.  His rape victim even publicly forgave him!. I think Marshall also lost points to his being a newcomer whose forte was theatre and television. That said, he was close. 

    2012( Ang Lee wins without the non nominated DGA winner Ben Afleck): Just like Howard and Speilberg,  Afleck won DGA in a sympathy vote. Lee won the Oscar due to lack of love for Speilberg and the Academy wanting to apologize for Brokeback’s loss.     

    Do you think Alejandro will win? Or do you think that McKay or even Miller can still get it?  

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    DD
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    #216410

    I honestly think this is 50/50. It just depends if voters remember AGI won three Oscars last year. His competition isn’t remarkable and there doesn’t seem to be an urgency to award any of the other directors. A split it definitely possible this year since the major guilds haven’t agreed, but I suspect this year will be similar to the 1968/69 race. Whatever film wins BP will win BD as well. “The Revenant” is peaking at the right time and its box-office is impressive. Since “Spotlight” and “The Big Short” are weak BP frontrunners and no one wants to award its directors, I could see “The Revenant” sweeping up multiple Oscars, including BP and BD.

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    Joe Burns
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    #216411

    I agree with you. Unless Big Short wins BAFTA,  I think that The Revenant will triumph in both races. 

    Does anybody know when oscar voting actually starts?
     

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    roo02
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    #216412

    Miller deserves it for both the finished product… AND the organized implementation of his vision during production. Unlike Iñárritu… 

    http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/how-leonardo-dicaprios-revenant-shoot-810290

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    Damiansport1
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    #216413

    Oscar voting starts tomorrow

    I think Inarritu is lock at this point. Who can even beat him? McKay or McCarthy? Cmon. Miller is not nominated at BAFTA and Mad Max is NOT TOP2 movie like Gravity . Inarritu was performing best in this season, he is far ahead.

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    Atypical
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    #216414

    #TeamMiller to the bitter end

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    Anonymous
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    #216415

    Picture: Big Short
    Director: Revenant.

    Sticking with this. 

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    Andrew Carden
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    #216416

    Inarritu is certainly the favorite, but it’s not inconceivable McCarthy or McKay get swept up in a wave Tom Hooper-style if the Academy goes head-over-heels for “Spotlight” or “The Big Short.” Doesn’t seem especially likely, though. Abrahamson never had a prayer and I think Miller needed the DGA win to score with the Oscars.

    I’d probably give Inarritu a 50 percent chance, McKay a 25 percent chance, McCarthy 20 percent and Miller 5 percent.

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    GusCruz
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    #216417

    Let’s suppose Affleck had not been nominated the year he won DGA for Argo. Who do you believe would have won the guild award? I’m pretty sure it would have been Spielberg. I think Ang Lee appeals to a more international crowd than Spielberg and the crafts carried him (keep in mind that both films, like Revenant and Fury Road, had a ton of nominations almost equally). I still think Miller can win. Anyone who talks to people that work in cinema around the world knows how loved he is. He is a legend. There is a great story (a narrative, you might say) behind how he came around taking on the MM series again after decades, the industry is aware of it and it moves people. Most importantly, he has not won last year. I’m disturbed by how easily people seem to swallow the idea of Inarritu winning back to back without realizing that the Academy simply does not repeat names consecutively in the acting races and directing. Last time was Tom Hanks in the nineties. Inarritu won the Globes this year, but he did not win there last year. He might win Bafta, where he did not win last year. DGA is the only place where he has been repeated. I think the Inarritu vs Miller showdown at DGA and Oscars are also different. DGA is picking a Director, yes, but it’s also the equivalent of Best Picture, so for Mad Max to win would be harder. At the Oscars we have a Best Picture category and a Best Director category. I don’t think it’s a given that all the guilds are going to come together to vote again for the same guy that won 12 months ago (btw, he won not one, but three Oscars for Birdman).

    Now, if you think Revenant will win Best Picture, it’s smart to pick Inarritu. I happen to believe Big Short and Spotlight have a better chance. Inarritu can win, of course. But so can Miller and also McKay, who has been campaigning hard. This is not locked.

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    J-No
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    #216418

    Inarritu for the win. Mad Max: Fury Road is losing steam in certain categories to The Revenant (picture, director, sound), The Big Short (picture, editing), and Spotlight (picture). Maybe these are signs of overall lagging support for MM: FR and, specifically, Miller.

    No to Abrahamson, McCarthy, and McKay.

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    GusCruz
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    #216419

    Inarritu for the win. Mad Max: Fury Road is losing steam in certain categories to The Revenant (picture, director, sound), The Big Short (picture, editing), and Spotlight (picture). Maybe these are signs of overall lagging support for MM: FR and, specifically, Miller.

    No to Abrahamson, McCarthy, and McKay.

    ??? Sorry, but how is Mad Max losing steam in Picture, a category it was never going to win in the first place. Why is it losing steam in the Sound categories if the guild and Bafta haven’t spoken and it won the Critics Choice? How is it losing steam in Editing to TBS if both predictably won the Ace Eddie?

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    Andrew Carden
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    #216420

    [quote=”Johnnorth326″]

    Inarritu for the win. Mad Max: Fury Road is losing steam in certain categories to The Revenant (picture, director, sound), The Big Short (picture, editing), and Spotlight (picture). Maybe these are signs of overall lagging support for MM: FR and, specifically, Miller.
    No to Abrahamson, McCarthy, and McKay.

    ??? Sorry, but how is Mad Max losing steam in Picture, a category it was never going to win in the first place. Why is it losing steam in the Sound categories if the guild and Bafta haven’t spoken and it won the Critics Choice? How is it losing steam in Editing to TBS if both predictably won the Ace Eddie?
    [/quote]

    Had Miller won DGA (or the film won the Globe), “Mad Max” would totally be in the Best Picture conversation right. Without that win, it’s all but dead there.

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    GusCruz
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    #216421

    [quote=”GustavoCruzESilva”]

    [quote=”Johnnorth326″]

    Inarritu for the win. Mad Max: Fury Road is losing steam in certain categories to The Revenant (picture, director, sound), The Big Short (picture, editing), and Spotlight (picture). Maybe these are signs of overall lagging support for MM: FR and, specifically, Miller.
    No to Abrahamson, McCarthy, and McKay.

    ??? Sorry, but how is Mad Max losing steam in Picture, a category it was never going to win in the first place. Why is it losing steam in the Sound categories if the guild and Bafta haven’t spoken and it won the Critics Choice? How is it losing steam in Editing to TBS if both predictably won the Ace Eddie?
    [/quote]

    Had Miller won DGA (or the film won the Globe), “Mad Max” would totally be in the Best Picture conversation right. Without that win, it’s all but dead there.
    [/quote]

    Sorry but I disagree. In fact, I touched it on my post a few posts above this one, when I said that the Oscars have a Picture category and a Director category, unlike the guild. Revenant won because they were looking also for a Picture potential winner. Just look at the experts predictions on Goldderby, not a single one of those that predicted Miller for DGA had Mad Max in their top 3 for Best Picture.

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    Bradley Weir
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    #216422

    Absouty it could be wrong. This has been a crazy season. We’ll see what happens with BAFTA, if Innaritu wins there he will have won BAFTA GG and DGA will seem really comfortable. I just don’t see Big Short/AGI split, and I can see McKay taking it. And we still shouldn’t underestimate Miller’s Academy popularity just yet.

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    Bradley Weir
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    #216423

    Inarritu for the win. Mad Max: Fury Road is losing steam in certain categories to The Revenant (picture, director, sound), The Big Short (picture, editing), and Spotlight (picture). Maybe these are signs of overall lagging support for MM: FR and, specifically, Miller.
    No to Abrahamson, McCarthy, and McKay.

    Where has it lost steam in Editing (which it won ACE) and sound? If Mad Max sweeps BAFTA techs we’ll be having a different conversation. I’ve never heard a film with 10 nominations be called “lagging support”.

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