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COULD (not should) Ryan Gosling upset BA

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COULD (not should) Ryan Gosling upset BA
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  • Brock
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    #1202018876

    I’ve noticed Ryan Gosling turn up in a staggering number of these “anonymous ballots” He only has a Globe which isn’t the best indicator. (Just ask Aaron Taylor-Johnson) My heart and gut are with Casey but I have to wonder if there is anything to these. Has anyone won just the Globe and gone on to Oscar? Could Denzel and Casey split the vote and let Gosling slide in? What say you, personal preferences aside?

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    pulp50
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    #1202018898

    I don’t think he has any chance.

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    GusCruz
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    #1202018920

    If it’s not Denzel and Casey, Viggo seems to be the most beloved. You guys are betting on some kind of huge LLL sweep that the season has repeatedly told us isn’t happening.

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    Tyler [Last Name]
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    #1202018927

    Only if they love La La Land enough to give it a big sweep.

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    Nikster
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    #1202018961

    The chances for vote split are the highest in this category. And if it does happen, Gosling takes the Oscar.

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    distain
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    #1202018975

    If it’s not Denzel and Casey, Viggo seems to be the most beloved. You guys are betting on some kind of huge LLL sweep that the season has repeatedly told us isn’t happening.

    I think people, as happens every year, are getting carried away with these secret ballots.

    To be honest, these Viggo mentions are sort of a bad sign for Affleck. Viggo himself can’t win, but it looks like he may be taking some of the “indie” vote from Affleck. Captain Fantastic and Manchester By The Sea are the type of movies and performances that would naturally appeal to the same demographic. Denzel, Andrew and Ryan are much more mainstream/traditional. I think Viggo is taking votes off Affleck, which might make it a comfortable victory for Denzel.

    I could be wrong, and it’s fun to speculate, but that’s my initial instinct.

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    GusCruz
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    #1202018989

    @distain I’m thinking Affleck wins as of today. The Academy is massively white and male and most of them will identify and feel that character’s pain. But it could easily be Denzel, who’s campaigning like crazy and won SAG. My Viggo comment has nothing to do with secret ballots, which, as I have said numerous times in other threads, I believe are mostly fake. But compared to Gosling and Garfield, he’s easily the one people love the most, and the one seen as overdue. The only con one could hold against him is the fact that he’s his movie’s only nod. But he showed up everywhere.

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    Moviebuff22
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    #1202019015

    I think people are really overthinking the Denzel/sag thing tbh. As we learned last year, unwritten rules are broken all the time

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    Honey
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    #1202019088

    If it’s not Denzel and Casey, Viggo seems to be the most beloved. You guys are betting on some kind of huge LLL sweep that the season has repeatedly told us isn’t happening.

    I think people, as happens every year, are getting carried away with these secret ballots. To be honest, these Viggo mentions are sort of a bad sign for Affleck. Viggo himself can’t win, but it looks like he may be taking some of the “indie” vote from Affleck. Captain Fantastic and Manchester By The Sea are the type of movies and performances that would naturally appeal to the same demographic. Denzel, Andrew and Ryan are much more mainstream/traditional. I think Viggo is taking votes off Affleck, which might make it a comfortable victory for Denzel. I could be wrong, and it’s fun to speculate, but that’s my initial instinct.

    So by your logic, any votes for Andrew and Ryan means a vote away from Denzel and Casey will have a comfortable victory? 2 people vs 1 person to take away support. Kinda like how on the Gold Derby Award, Casey was ahead of Denzel with twice the amount of votes?

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    Brock
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    #1202019106

    To be fair I never drank the Denzel Kool-Aid. From the minute I walked out of Manchester By The Sea I didn’t see how anyone could top what Casey does in that film. Fences has its strengths to be sure. I’m good with Viola winning. She was flat-out robbed for The Help and while I think Michelle Williams gives the better true supporting performance, there is no denying that Viola is overdue a win. After seeing Fences pre-nominations, I immediately thought “I get it. The Supporting Actress Oscar is Viola’s but what I don’t get is how Denzel is even considered to be in second place.” His performance just didn’t land where it seemed it should. Too big. Too broad. Viola shaped and adapted Rose for the screen. Denzel was still playing to the mezzanine at the Cort Theatre. I think the SAG win was (And no offense intended) a make-up for never honoring him. It also hit right in the midst of the Casey backlash which didn’t hurt Denzel on picking up votes. I admit I could be totally wrong but I’m holding my ground with Casey bringing home the win and very cautiously bumping Ryan into second.

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    M
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    #1202019112

    I think people are really overthinking the Denzel/sag thing tbh. As we learned last year, unwritten rules are broken all the time

    Is it any different from those who see Ali as super vulnerable because of the Globe and BAFTA losses? SAG was a necessary win for Washington to become competitive in his category. And if he loses this Sunday it won’t be by a landslide margin.

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    heyoranges
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    #1202019116

    Nope. If he won, his win would be the worst win in the history (to me).

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    Jason Travis
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    #1202021910

    Could Washington and Affleck be so close that we get a Brody upset with Gosling? I’m wondering. But I guess Brody was different because there were 4 previous winners and Nicholson campaigned hard for him.

    When another tight race was going on with Bill Murray and Sean Penn, Johnny Depp won SAG- but in the end there was no split and Penn prevailed.

    My money is on Casey. I think Washington only winning SAG and nothing else is causing me to pause and look at the whole map.

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    Jason Hamdan
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    #1202021927

    Gosling has zero chance in winning. He’s more worried now that his co-star might be losing to Huppert who will get a standing ovation.

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    Jalal Haddad
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    #1202021928

    I think there is vote splitting happening in so many ways but I currently have him in third. I think voters who take acting seriously have three options (Affleck, Washington, Mortensen) and there seems to be support for all three although Mortensen has no chance at winning. That leaves room for the smaller fraction of the Academy that will mark off LLL everywhere to push Gosling to a shocking win. Although I don’t there there are enough voters that will blindly vote for LLL everywhere to actually have this happen.

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