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January 26, 2016 at 10:38 am #213118
Everybody seems to have written “The Martian” off as a potential Best Picture winner, but I have a theory that it could be this year’s “Argo.” Check out my analysis by clicking the link below and feel free to tell me that I’m wrong in the comments.January 26, 2016 at 10:41 am #213121
Argo won pretty much every single precursor in the book (Golden Globe, SAG, PGA, DGA, BAFTA). With only a Globe Comedy win thus far (and it not winning PGA, and no SAG nom) it’s not happening.January 26, 2016 at 10:41 am #213120
No because Argo won Critic’s Choice, Golden Globes, and SAG where it isn’t even nominated. That ship sailed months agoJanuary 26, 2016 at 10:42 am #213122
Yeah no. That’s not happening.January 26, 2016 at 11:16 am #213123
Indeed, it’ll have to settle for 5th place. To be honest, I don’t see how “The Martian” wins a single award come Oscar night.January 26, 2016 at 11:29 am #213124
It can only win DGA and is not a frontrunner in any category, so it will not happen.January 26, 2016 at 11:36 am #213125
It would be weird if Best Picture was the only thing it won on Oscar night, and considering I have it in 5th in most of the categories it’s nominated in, so that’s what I imagine would be the case.
I do like your analysis though, it just seems like there are too many dominoes that would need to fall that I don’t see right now.
Come participate in this year's Goldderby Rankings! http://www.goldderby.com/forum/movies/2017-goldderby-rankings/January 26, 2016 at 11:52 am #213126
This was my initial thought the minute Scott was snubbed but it’s not gonna happen.January 26, 2016 at 11:57 am #213127
‘The Martian’ is fifth or sixth in the BP race.January 26, 2016 at 12:04 pm #213128
I understand the logic given the presumed Director frontrunner being snubbed, and the possibility to give said director an Oscar for Producer of the Picture winner.
The Martian has won the Globe, but it can’t get the SAG or BAFTA like Argo did. Plus the Director race in Argo’s year was an absolute shambles. This year, aside from the Scott snub, that race is pretty much as expected, and even Abrahamson’s shock inclusion has been welcomed warmly by so many.
I would much rather see The Martian win Picture over most of the presumed front runners (The Big Short/Mad Max/Spotlight – I would like a Revenant win of the main 4 runners), but can’t see it happening. Argo had the Editing and Screenplay wins, but The Martian is MIA from Editing and The Big Short is likely to win Adapted Screenplay, with The Martian about 3rd at absolute best.January 26, 2016 at 1:14 pm #213129
The idea of the eight major categories going to eight different movies seems awesome.
Picture: The Martian
Director: Mad Max: Fury Road
Actor: The Revenant
Supporting Actor: Creed
Supporting Actress: Carol or The Danish Girl
Adapted Sceenplay: The Big Short
Original Screenplay: Spotlight
Picture is the only one that seems like a stretch, but I would support it for the hilarity of it.January 26, 2016 at 2:05 pm #213130
The Martian isn’t going to win anything.January 26, 2016 at 2:06 pm #213131
Argo could overcome it’s best director omission. Birdman could overcome it’s best editing omission. But I really don’t think it’s possible for any movie to overcome BOTH omissions. It’s not happening.January 26, 2016 at 3:54 pm #213133
Argo could overcome it’s best director omission. Birdman could overcome it’s best editing omission. But I really don’t think it’s possible for any movie to overcome BOTH omissions. It’s not happening.
Indeed. Even “Driving Miss Daisy,” which won without a Best Director nom, had the Film Editing nod.January 26, 2016 at 4:30 pm #213134
The only films I can think of which are chronically overlooked for both Film Editing and Direction, but go on to win within their category, are the many wonderful Animated Films going on to win Best Animated Film.
Wall-E, Beauty and The Beast, Toy Story, and on and on.
They may have been more open-minded way back at the turn of the last Century, but I’d have to check that.
The Martian, could be ‘done’. Plus, I can understand why so many viewers found the film tedious. Cute and Musical it isnt…but it’s a comedy, right?