Dev Patel or Mahershala Ali?

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This topic contains 161 replies, has 6253 views, and was last updated by  FreemanGriffin 2 months, 4 weeks ago.

  • Profile photo of Greg FeaselGMonty777
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    #1202009226

    Before you consider discounting Patel, keep in mind two things:

    (1) We discounted Rylance and Swinton because there were British. Remember Stallone was suppose to win. He won the Globe and Critics Choice and won the most critics circle awards.
    (2) 8/12 BAFTA Best Supporting Actor winners went on to win Best Supporting Actor. In 2/4 off seasons, the Oscar winner wasn’t eligible (Leto and Freeman). Alan Arkin just won the BAFTA, and Murphy won the Globe, Critics Choice, and SAG.

    Whose winning? I am going to stick with Ali, but I think it is going to be close. I can easily see Patel winning this.

    • This topic was modified 3 months, 1 week ago by Profile photo of Greg Feasel GMonty777.
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    Profile photo of Eddy QEddy Q
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    #1202009262

    Patel is a formidable threat, especially as he is possibly the only place where Lion is competitive, and people love this movie. What he also has going for him is his dominance in the second half of the movie, and people have won for these sorts of category fraud roles before.

    That said I also have doubts, and not just because of Ali. The Academy do not like awarding very young men unless it seems like they have to. Timothy Hutton, the youngest winner in this category, was in the Best Picture winner and had a lot more emotional showboating than Patel does in Lion. Before seeing the movie, I’d actually expected Patel to give a more overt performance than he did, based on trailers. (My own ambivalence to his performance are for different reasons, however.) Ali of course is far from overt, but he’s older and Oscar has awarded his sort of caregiver role in the past. Patel does not quite seem like, say, the Tilda Swinton to Ali’s Ruby Dee (another one who won SAG but not Globe or BAFTA) when Ali, unlike Dee, is in a major Best Picture contender with the second-highest nomination tally.

    But I am not going to dismiss Patel by saying “of course BAFTA voted for him, he’s British!” That won’t work here.

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    Profile photo of Roney MooreRoney Moore
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    #1202009263

    Neither Murphy nor Stallone make a good analogy for the amiable character actor Ali here so I’m not gonna address them. Lupita is a better analogy for him.

    BAFTA obviously does have sensibility for its hometown actors but in contrary to popular belief it doesn’t go out of its way to award them, but rather default them when the actual frontrunner isn’t in the race. The last time they clearly showed their Brit bias was when they went with Firth for A Single Man. So yeah, Patel can’t be dismissed because of that. Especially when Moonlight was still popular enough to get a BP nomination while Lion wasn’t. Will it be enough? I don’t think so.

    At least people finally can let Bridges go.

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    Profile photo of Maxwell ZMaxwell
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    #1202009282

    I’ve been predicting a possible Patel shift all along. Ali had a great political speech at SAG and Moonlight is a beloved BP runner-up (clearly more over here than at BAFTA), but Lion also has its fans and Patel is an emotionally showy category fraud performance. And, they don’t lose any diversity points by going with Patel.

    Ali’s biggest problem is that he’s only in the first third of the film. He’s wonderful, but you leave Moonlight thinking about the diner scene, not the baptism scene.

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    Paul Hardister
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    #1202009314

    I don’t think the Stallone/Rylance race is comparable. Rylance was the only one getting nominated across the board. So even though Stallone had some significant wins (Globe, Critics Choice), that fact that Stallone was snubbed by SAG was a big sign that he wasn’t going to win.

    For Ali, a Critics Choice and SAG win is more significant than a CC/Globe combo because there is more overlap with SAG and the Academy.

    For Eddie Murphy vs. Alan Arkin, Eddie was hurt by the awful timing of Norbit’s release during the Oscar voting and Alan Arkin won because of the love for that movie (Little Miss Sunshine won SAG & PGA and was nominated for Best Picture, Dreamgirls was not).

    Moonlight has more nominations than Lion so I’d say Ali has a slight edge. However, Patel has the Weinstein machine on his side which can’t hurt. Also, Lion is doing better at the box office than Moonlight. So it will be VERY close.

    Who knew that THIS would be the closest race for Oscar night?

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    Profile photo of Andrew CardenAndrew Carden
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    #1202009436

    I suspect Weinstein will drag Patel across the finish line.

    For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis, please visit me at The Awards Connection!

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    Profile photo of JacobTeridax
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    #1202009451

    Okay, let me clear something up: Dev Patel is arguably NOT a category fraud for Lion, and can be called genuinely Supporting since he doesn’t appear until 55 minutes into the movie. This isn’t an Alicia Vikander situation, where she was arguably more of a lead than Eddie Redmayne yet won Supporting Actress regardless. I honestly don’t think Moonlight is even going to be a runner-up at the Oscars. We’ve all been buying into hype that wasn’t there, I now have Moonlight in 5th place in Best Picture, behind La La Land in first, SAG Ensemble winner Hidden Figures in 2nd, Manchester by-the sea in 3rd, and Harvey Weinstein horse this season, Lion in 4th.

    MOONLIGHT. IS. DEAD. Get over it! Yes, Mahershala still could win, but it feels like you would have to love his movie in order to love him as well, and the Oscars have a HUGE I.O.U. for Dev Patel because of his atrocious Slumdog Millionaire snub. Even if you don’t love Lion, I’ve heard very few people complain about Patel’s performance, he has a powerful scene, Mahershala doesn’t have any scene where he really gets to dominate in that Oscar-y kind of way. I think Dev Patel is a safe bet to win Supporting Actor at the Oscars, with Mahershala the sole spoiler.

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    Profile photo of Aint2Proud2BegAint2Proud2Beg
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    #1202009500

    None. Michael Shanon FTW.

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    Oleg Tom
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    #1202009506

    I suspect Weinstein will drag Patel across the finish line.

    For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis, please visit me at The Awards Connection!

    And this time that’s a good thing.

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    Profile photo of Michael ParisiMoviebuff22
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    #1202009518

    They vote split and Michael Shannon wins :p

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    Profile photo of Tom GladstonSagand
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    #1202009526

    I don’t think this race has the dynamic as Stallone and Rylance. Stallone wasn’t (isn’t) a respected actor and Rylance is the multiple Tony winning British stage actor. If Dev Patel were to win he would be the second youngest male actor to win of all time, he hasn’t built up that respect yet that comes with age.

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    Profile photo of Greg FeaselGMonty777
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    #1202009547

    I don’t think this race has the dynamic as Stallone and Rylance. Stallone wasn’t (isn’t) a respected actor and Rylance is the multiple Tony winning British stage actor. If Dev Patel were to win he would be the second youngest male actor to win of all time, he hasn’t built up that respect yet that comes with age.

    Stallone isn’t a respected actor? Really? Give me a break. He got a standing ovation at the Globes.

    Stallone was the favorite. Virtually everybody on Gold Derby picked him.

    Patel was in Slumdog. He was in Marigold Hotel. He’s been on television and lots of films. He’s a very respected actor. I wouldn’t call him less popular than Ali, who just recently burst onto the scene.

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    Profile photo of AtypicalAtypical
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    #1202009556

    Ali will become the place to reward for “Moonlight” as a whole (sadly the possible only place), and it was nodded more than “Lion” and most films in the lineup other than the frontrunner. Now that’s it’s been spoiled (ugh) that Patel won, I’m thrilled for him having this moment in his career. That doesn’t change my final prediction for Ali though.

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    Dephira
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    #1202009633

    I think Patel has done pretty much the minimum of what he had to do to be a somewhat viable contender. For sure this category is shaping up to be much more competitive than we thought months ago and is one of the most exciting races. I’ve put some money on Patel winning so I’d be thrilled if he does, though I still give Ali a decent edge.

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    Profile photo of Tom GladstonSagand
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    #1202009648

    Stallone isn’t a respected actor? Really? Give me a break. He got a standing ovation at the Globes.

    Stallone was the favorite. Virtually everybody on Gold Derby picked him.

    Patel was in Slumdog. He was in Marigold Hotel. He’s been on television and lots of films. He’s a very respected actor. I wouldn’t call him less popular than Ali, who just recently burst onto the scene.

    No I don’t think seventeen time Razzie Nominee (that’s only counting the acting nominations) and Razzie winner for ’Worst Actor of the Century’ is that respected as an actor. I get that everyone picked him (myself included) but he didn’t win, my thoughts on why that was is that his bad roles overshadow everything else. (I would put Eddie Murphy, Jim Carrey and Mickey Rourke and maybe even Bill Murray in this category too).

    But my point was that this race is completely different to that race and blindly following the Bafta winner without exploring the difference would be a mistake. I think Patel will be seen as someone still developing his craft who will have plenty of opportunities in the future whereas Ali is around the median age for a supporting actor winner and chance to reward a top three film and a breakthrough of a mature performer.

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Reply To: Dev Patel or Mahershala Ali?

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