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Did the DGAs change the Best Picture race at all?

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  • GMonty777
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    #1202486988

    The Shape of Water (TSOW) won the PGA and DGA

    Three Billboards (3BNEM) won the SAGE

    Now we wait for the pulse of the other two big industry awards, WGAs and BAFTAs.

    Get Out and Lady Bird need to win the WGA here or else they are out.

    Call Me By Your Name will probably win the WGA, but without a directing and editing nomination AND missing both the DGA and SAGE nomination, it’s very hard for me to consider it a player for Best Picture.

    Dunkirk got eliminated when Nolan lost to Del Toro. The Post, Darkest Hour, and Phantom Thread started off as “No chance” nominees.

    How about you? Do you agree that Lady Bird and Get Out need to win the WGA or else, they are done? Out of Africa and Chariots of Fire didn’t win any major Guilds, but they were in a time when we didn’t have the PGAs and SAG awards. Plus, Lady Bird and Get Out didn’t have a BAFTA Best Picture nomination.

    • This topic was modified 2 weeks, 3 days ago by  GMonty777.
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    nevkm
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    #1202486993

    Get Out and Lady Bird are already done. You cannot win Best Picture at the Oscars without a Best Picture nomination at Bafta. It’s between TSOW and Three Billboards.

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    GMonty777
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    #1202486998

    Get Out and Lady Bird are already done. You cannot win Best Picture at the Oscars without a Best Picture nomination at Bafta. It’s between TSOW and Three Billboards.

    So basically, nothing changed after last night? It’s still a close race between TSOW and 3BNEM.

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    TVFan365
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    #1202486999

    Get Out and Lady Bird are already done. You cannot win Best Picture at the Oscars without a Best Picture nomination at Bafta. It’s between TSOW and Three Billboards.

    Million Dollar Baby? Braveheart? Rain Man? Platoon? Out of Africa? Terms of Endearment? Ordinary People? The Godfather Part II? The Sting? The Godfather? Patton? The Sound of Music? Around the World in 80 Days? The Greatest Show on Earth? All the King’s Men?

    • This reply was modified 2 weeks, 3 days ago by  TVFan365.
    • This reply was modified 2 weeks, 3 days ago by  TVFan365.
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    Miles
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    #1202487003

    Lady Bird and Get Out are still dark horse candidates because they both got PGA, DGA, and SAG nominations, and were both snubbed by BAFTA for Best Picture. They are on even ground in my opinion. Whichever one wins at WGA will gain an edge over the other, but they are competing for third place.

    So, to answer the question, the race is still between The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. DGA doesn’t hurt 3B at all because del Toro is expected to win Director at the Oscars anyway so this doesn’t give his film a boost, it just cements his frontrunner status.

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    GMonty777
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    #1202487004

    Get Out and Lady Bird are already done. You cannot win Best Picture at the Oscars without a Best Picture nomination at Bafta. It’s between TSOW and Three Billboards.

    Million Dollar Baby? Braveheart? Rain Man? Platoon? Out of Africa? Terms of Endearment? Ordinary People? The Godfather Part II? The Sting? The Godfather? Patton? The Sound of Music? Around the World in 80 Days? The Greatest Show on Earth? All the King’s Men?

    To be fair. Million Dollar Baby got in their screeners too late and the BAFTA never got a chance to truly see the film.

    The other ones mentioned were in a time when they had only 4 nominees.

    I still say they are alive still, if they can win the WGA.

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    GMonty777
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    #1202487006

    Lady Bird and Get Out are still dark horse candidates because they both got PGA, DGA, and SAG nominations, and were both snubbed by BAFTA for Best Picture. They are on even ground in my opinion. Whichever one wins at WGA will gain an edge over the other, but they are competing for third place.

    So, to answer the question, the race is still between The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. DGA doesn’t hurt 3B at all because del Toro is expected to win Director at the Oscars anyway so this doesn’t give his film a boost, it just cements his frontrunner status.

    Lady Bird and Get Out missed out on an editing nomination too. That hurts as well. Get Out having only four nods is another handicap it has to overcome.

    88% of all DGA winners have all gone on to win Best Director in their respected seasons. Del Toro winning the DGA, the most critics circle Best Director trophies, the Globe, and the Critics Choice, makes him one of the safest bets this Oscar season.

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    nevkm
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    #1202487013

    Del Toro just got DGA and Three Billboards will probably win at Bafta. It’s between these two. Everybody knows it. I don’t think WGA will change anything.

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    M
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    #1202487017

    Tapley says there’s a lot of industry disdain for Billboards. Doesn’t help its chances with preferential ballots.

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    Sally Carter
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    #1202487022

    Tapley says there’s a lot of industry disdain for Billboards. Doesn’t help its chances with preferential ballots.

    Why is there a disdain for 3bb in industry? Because of racial politics?

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    imsoaddicted
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    #1202487024

    But there are so many rumors after all the Oscar parties that the Academy loves Three Billboards and McDormand’s performance. I agree that the final battle is between TSOW and TBOEM.

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    M
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    #1202487025

    Why is there a disdain for 3bb in industry? Because of racial politics?

    I think brutality of the material and unlikable characters is ultimately what’s keeping voters from embracing it as a BP front runner.

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    GMonty777
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    #1202487033

    Why is there a disdain for 3bb in industry? Because of racial politics?

    I think brutality of the material and unlikable characters is ultimately what’s keeping voters from embracing it as a BP front runner.

    Interesting. Is Tapley saying this based on Oscar voters we interviewed or is it based on rumors?

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    Lord Freddy Blackfyre
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    #1202487188

    I just watched The Post and Lady Bird and I must say that the snubbing of The Post is one of the greatest injustices of this award season. On Lady Bird…..I just liked better when it was called Clueless back in the early 90s…This is a classic case of over-prizing and overrating a film that is OK but nowhere close to be an award worthy film much less an Oscar worthy Best Picture contender…I got worry that Chamalet performance in Call Me By Your Name might be a fluke judging by his “acting” in Lady Bird.

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    Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)
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    #1202487196

    @m I don’t get the unlikeable characters thing. Many actors have won Oscars for playing them. For God’s sake, Forest Whitaker won Best Actor in 2007 by portraying a dictator in Idi Amin.

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