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Doubt about GoldDerby Predictions Points

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  • seabel
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    #214046

    Excuse me if you think this was too little for an own thread, but I couldn’t find any thread to post it…

    I have a doubt about my predictions. For example, I got 100% in the Eddie Awards, so then I don’t understand how I got 1011,54 and am positioned in 340th.

    Can somebody explain it to me? Because I’d like to improve looking to the upcoming awards shows.

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    Hubert_K
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    #214048

    I don’t understand that too.

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    Riley
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    #214049

    Hundreds of people predicted ACE perfectly in the predictions center.  In the case of a tie, it then goes to points.  Points are based off of how you asign your big bets and also how favourable the odds were when you last updated your predictions in the category.  You actually only used two of your three big bets, so you unfortunately lost out on some easy points there that everybody else got.  Also, you put your big bet on the biggest lock of the night and that yields a smaller pay-off than being right on something that is more of a gamble.

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    seabel
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    #214050

    So giving 500 to Leonardo Di Caprio, for example, looking at Oscars prediction, is not good?

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    seabel
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    #214051

    For example, I don’t truly understand how odds work. But I guess that’s something I should look up at Google.

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    Eddy Q
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    #214052

    So giving 500 to Leonardo Di Caprio, for example, looking at Oscars prediction, is not good?

    No that is not good. Don’t do that.

    An example of a good 500 point bet would have been Big Hero 6 last year in Best Animated Feature. Almost everyone (including me, but not confidently) was predicting How to Train Your Dragon 2.

     

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    CanadianFan
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    #214053

    Odds confuse me as well, so I just think of them as fractions.

    For example, Leo is 1/10 = 0.1 and Fassbender is 33/1 = 33. I take my bets and put them on the people or films with the highest number.

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    seabel
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    #214054

    OK, so big numbers are best bets at either runner-ups or dark horses.

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    CanadianFan
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    #214055

    OK, so big numbers are best bets at either runner-ups or dark horses.

    Mostly dark horses or upsets that you have ranked #1 that the rest of GD doesn’t. 

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    Jason Travis
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    #214056

    The point system still confuses me because in 2013, I scored 91 accuracy,  only missing Film Ensemble (which went to American Hustle) and Foreign (which went to Great Beauty). All my correct predictions were for pretty much sure things. There were literally no upsets. Even American Hustle wasn’t one and I predicted 12 Years a Slave. They were kneck to kneck. Ditto for foreign. I still placed 78 out of 938. So where DO you place your big bets if all the movies that are going to win have easy odds?

    And when you update your predictions, does that change the odds for ALL the nominees in that category?? If that’s the case, I better start predicting early (like I did with PGA and earned 6000 points for Big Short prediction, thus I ranked higher) and not swap out predictions last minute. 

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    CanadianFan
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    #214057

    Yes, if you change one thing in the category, it resets the odds for the entire category.

    If you’re not predicting any upsets, place your big bets on the categories that return the highest number.

    So, 2/10 > 1/10.

    8/5 > 6/5. Although those odds are not going to return giant numbers, if they are the best you have, you might as well use them.

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    PJ Edwards
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    #214058

    Lol I got in 500 something place in ACE since I didn’t put big bets on it and will probably end up same in ADG despite being perfect again.

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    seabel
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    #214059

    OMG I’m 1st at the Art Directors Guild Awards!!!!!!!

    It was insane when I found out the result!!!!!!!!!!!

    So exciting!!!!!!!!!!! Doggy

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    Damiansport1
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    #214060

    My biggest succes i so far 7th place in BFCA film

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    Eddy Q
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    #214061

    OMG I’m 1st at the Art Directors Guild Awards!!!!!!!

    It was insane when I found out the result!!!!!!!!!!!

    So exciting!!!!!!!!!!! Doggy

    Congrats!

    I was 9th. I placed my bets wisely (500 on The Revenant) but only predicted film categories. Did you get all the TV ones right as well? 

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