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Early Oscar Predictions

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  • Problemchild
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    Jun 28th, 2011
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    #1201919807

    Since the other thread was closed, let’s post and discuss our early Oscar predictions here.

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    italianbeaver
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    #1201919951

    Who i think:

    Best Picture: La La Land

    Best Director: Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

    Best Actress: Viola Davis (Fences)

    Best Actor: Casey Affleck (Manchester By The Sea)

    Best Supporting Actress: Michelle Williams (Manchester By The Sea)

    Best Supporting Actor: Liam Neeson (Silence) if it doesn’t come out then Steve Martin

    Who i want:

    Best Picture: Arrival

    Best Director: Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

    Best Actress: Amy Adams (Arrival)

    Best Actor: Tom Hanks or Casey Affleck (Sully and Manchester By The Sea)

    Best Supporting Actress: Nicole Kidman (Lion)

    Best Supporting Actor: Jeff Bridges (Hell Or High Water)

     

     

     

     

     

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    AMG
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    #1201919961

    Predictions – alternatives given for the yet to be confirmed 2016 releases

    Picture: La La Land
    Director: Ben Affleck – Live By Night (alt: Damian Chazelle – La La Land)
    Actor: Andrew Garfield – Silence (alt: Ryan Gosling – La La Land)
    Actress: Emma Stone – La La Land
    Supporting Actor: Liam Neeson – Silence (alt: Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals)
    Supporting Actress: Michelle Williams – Manchester By The Sea

    Original Screenplay: Moonlight
    Adapted Screenplay: Nocturnal Animals
    Production Design: Silence (alt: La La Land)
    Cinematography: Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    Costume Design: La La Land
    Make Up & Hairstyling: Silence (alt: Fences)
    Sound Mixing: La La Land
    Sound Editing: La La Land
    Film Editing: La La Land
    Visual Effects: The Jungle Book
    Original Score: Arrival
    Original Song: Moana
    Animated Feature: Zootopia
    Foreign Language Film: The Salesman

    Big thinking – it’s been a fair while since we’ve had a Best Picture winner have a sweep. La La Land seems to be the film which most clearly can do that. It has the technical aspects, as well as the overwhelming response critically to pull it off.

    They owe Ben Affleck the Best Director Oscar. Live By Night looks slick, and beautifully shot so he stands a good shot. Will be interesting if Live By Night gets positive reactions – will the Globes/DGA/BAFTA be ‘predictors’ for the Oscar, given that Affleck has already won there? Will that then give Affleck the momentum over Chazelle et al. Or will those precursors go with the Best Picture buzz which La La Land currently has, and give Chazelle the prize after seeing Whiplash was not a fluke?

    Best Actor is possibly the most open race so far [read: kind of the most boring]. Is that because there is no frontrunner? Casey Affleck to be more like an also-ran to me. Or is it because so many of the films feature new faces/are more female driven?

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    Problemchild
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    #1201919964

    BEST PICTURE
    Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    The Birth of a Nation
    Fences
    ☆La La Land
    Live By Night
    Loving
    Manchester By the Sea
    Moonlight
    Silence
    Sully

    BEST DIRECTOR
    Ben Affleck, Live By Night
    ☆Damien Chazelle, La La Land
    Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
    Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    Martin Scorsese, Silence

    BEST ACTOR
    Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea
    Oscar Isaac, The Promise
    Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
    Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
    ☆Denzel Washington, Fences

    BEST ACTRESS
    Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
    ☆Viola Davis, Fences
    Ruth Negga, Loving
    Natalie Portman, Jackie
    Emma Stone, La La Land

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
    Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
    Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
    ☆Lucas Hedges, Manchester By the Sea
    Liam Neeson, Silence
    Mykelti Williamson, Fences

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    Jennifer Connolly, American Pastoral
    ☆Naomi Harris, Moonlight
    Margo Martindale, The Hollars
    Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
    Michelle Williams, Manchester By the Sea

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
    Cafe Society
    Captain Fantastic
    La La Land
    Loving
    ☆Manchester By the Sea

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
    Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    Fences
    Live By Night
    ☆Moonlight
    Silence

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
    Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    Hail, Caesar!
    La La Land
    Live By Night
    ☆Silence

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN
    Alice Through the Looking Glass
    Fences
    La La Land
    Love & Friendship
    ☆Silence

    BEST FILM EDITING
    Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    La La Land
    Live By Night
    ☆Moonlight
    Silence

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
    Hidden Figures
    Florence Foster Jenkins
    ☆Star Trek Beyond

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
    The BFG
    Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    Hidden Figures
    ☆La La Land
    Moonlight

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
    Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
    The Jungle Book
    La La Land
    ☆Live By Night
    Silence

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    Maxwell
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    #1201920018

    BEST PICTURE
    Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    Fences
    La La Land
    Live By Night
    Manchester by the Sea
    Moonlight
    Passengers
    Rules Don’t Apply
    Silence

    BEST DIRECTOR
    Ben Affleck – Live by Night
    Damien Chazelle – La La Land
    Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
    Ang Lee – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    Martin Scorsese – Silence

    BEST ACTOR
    Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
    Andrew Garfield – Silence
    Jake Gyllenhaal – Nocturnal Animals
    Tom Hanks – Sully
    Denzel Washington – Fences

    BEST ACTRESS
    Annette Bening – 20th Century Women
    Viola Davis – Fences
    Jennifer Lawrence – Passengers
    Natalie Portman – Jackie
    Emma Stone – La La Land

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
    Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
    Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
    Stephen Henderson – Fences
    Steve Martin – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    Liam Neeson – Silence

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    Amy Adams – Nocturnal Animals
    Naomie Harris – Moonlight
    Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
    Kristen Stewart – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
    Jackie
    La La Land
    Manchester by the Sea
    Passengers
    Rules Don’t Apply

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
    Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    Fences
    Live by Night
    Moonlight
    Silence

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    Robert Russaw
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    #1201920179

    Out of all films, very curious to see what roles Rules Don’t Apply, 20th Century Women, and Lion will play at this year’s Oscars. Also, assuming Jackie will be sold in time for this year’s Oscars, what effect it will have on Best Actress, especially since Portman has been getting raves.

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    Roney Moore
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    #1201920317

    Predictions – alternatives given for the yet to be confirmed 2016 releases Picture: La La Land Director: Ben Affleck – Live By Night (alt: Damian Chazelle – La La Land) Actor: Andrew Garfield – Silence (alt: Ryan Gosling – La La Land) Actress: Emma Stone – La La Land Supporting Actor: Liam Neeson – Silence (alt: Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals) Supporting Actress: Michelle Williams – Manchester By The Sea Original Screenplay: Moonlight Adapted Screenplay: Nocturnal Animals Production Design: Silence (alt: La La Land) Cinematography: Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk Costume Design: La La Land Make Up & Hairstyling: Silence (alt: Fences) Sound Mixing: La La Land Sound Editing: La La Land Film Editing: La La Land Visual Effects: The Jungle Book Original Score: Arrival Original Song: Moana Animated Feature: Zootopia Foreign Language Film: The Salesman

    Big thinking – it’s been a fair while since we’ve had a Best Picture winner have a sweep. La La Land seems to be the film which most clearly can do that. It has the technical aspects, as well as the overwhelming response critically to pull it off.

    Fair enough, but musicals almost never get nominated for Sound Editing.

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 2 months ago by  Roney Moore.
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    AnDres Gtz
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    Dec 3rd, 2013
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    #1201920368

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
    Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    Fences
    Live by Night
    Moonlight
    Silence

    These are the best predictions in this post, but I don’t see Silence loosing Adapted Screenplay if it wins Picture and Director.

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    JabberCash
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    Dec 1st, 2015
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    #1201920493

    BEST PICTURE
    Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    Fences
    ☆La La Land
    Live By Night
    Loving
    Manchester By the Sea
    Moonlight
    Silence
    Arrival
    The Birth of a Nation

    BEST DIRECTOR
    Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By The Sea
    ☆Damien Chazelle, La La Land
    Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
    Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    Martin Scorsese, Silence

    BEST ACTOR
    ☆Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea
    Joel Edgerton, Loving
    Andrew Garfield, Silence
    Tom Hanks, Sully
    Denzel Washington, Fences

    BEST ACTRESS
    Amy Adams, Arrival
    Viola Davis, Fences
    Ruth Negga, Loving
    ☆Natalie Portman, Jackie
    Emma Stone, La La Land

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
    Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
    Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
    Lucas Hedges, Manchester By the Sea
    ☆Liam Neeson, Silence
    Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    Nicole Kidman, Lion
    ☆Naomi Harris, Moonlight
    Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    Rachel Weisz, The Light Between Oceans
    Michelle Williams, Manchester By the Sea

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
    Hell or Highwater
    Cafe Society
    La La Land
    Loving
    ☆Manchester By the Sea

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
    Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    Fences
    Live By Night
    ☆Moonlight
    Silence

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
    Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    Hail, Caesar!
    ☆La La Land
    Arrival
    Silence

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN
    Alice Through the Looking Glass
    Fences
    La La Land
    Love & Friendship
    ☆Silence

    BEST FILM EDITING
    Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    ☆La La Land
    Arrival
    Live By Night
    Silence

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
    Silence
    ☆Florence Foster Jenkins
    Star Trek Beyond

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
    The Light Between Oceans
    Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    Arrival
    Finding Dory
    ☆La La Land

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG
    ☆La La Land “City of Stars”
    Sing Street “Go Now
    Sing Street “Drive it Like You Stole it”
    Zootopia “Try Everything”
    Sausauge Party “The Great Beyond

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
    Love & Friendship
    The Jungle Book
    La La Land
    Live By Night
    ☆Silence

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    forwardswill
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    Apr 9th, 2013
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    #1201920582

    Casey affleck isn’t winning hes not playing a real life person

    I was about to strongly disagree with this as just trolling but upon doing some research you could actually be very right. I cannot believe how many of the Best Actor winners this century have been for portrayals of real people. Only Russell Crowe, Sean Penn, Daniel Day Lewis and Jean Dujardin. (You could count Jeff Bridges as well but even his character was based distinctly on a real life person). Incredibly tempted to adjust my predictions.

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    Maxwell
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    #1201920652

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
    Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    Fences
    Live by Night
    Moonlight
    Silence

    These are the best predictions in this post, but I don’t see Silence loosing Adapted Screenplay if it wins Picture and Director.

    Thank you sir! I was debating between them, and in this scenario it probably would be Silence, you’re right. However, I could see Screenplay as a place to honor Moonlight, especially given the Academy’s probable desire to mitigate #OscarsSoWhite controversy. But I’m out on a limb with that one, certainly.

    As to Affleck not winning Actor – he could very well lose, but I highly doubt it would be to someone playing a real life character. His biggest competition is probably Denzel Washington for Fences, and possibly Andrew Garfield in Silence. The only major real-life Best Actor contenders at this point are Tom Hanks (will be lucky to get nominated), Nate Parker (would have to be even luckier and would never win), and Joel Edgerton (film seems to be having a soft landing, probably won’t be a major player). As the last few years have shown us, trends and statistics are just that – not rules.

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 2 months ago by  Maxwell.
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    Maxwell
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    #1201920723

    I think we’re all operating under the assumption that – though they’re not yet confirmed – Silence and Live by Night will release this year. Silence could not be finished in time, yes, but I’m willing to bet Scorsese and Schoonmaker edit like mad to finish in time rather than push back a year. We’ll see. Either way, Garfield isn’t getting nominated for Hacksaw Ridge.

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    Andrew Carden
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    #1201920783

    Live By Night looks like Public Enemies 2.0 to me.

    OSCAR FLASHBACK: Best Original Song (2009) – Where the Wild Things Weren’t

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    Maxwell
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    #1201920794

    Well, it’s a Ben Affleck period piece, and a mobster period piece at that. Plus, the trailer has some gorgeous cinematography and the cast looks strong. No reason for it not to be a contender.

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    M
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    #1201920831

    Well, it’s a Ben Affleck period piece, and a mobster period piece at that. Plus, the trailer has some gorgeous cinematography and the cast looks strong. No reason for it not to be a contender.

    The reviewers will matter more for a minor genre exercise like this one.

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