Early predictions for Oscars 2015

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  • FreemanGriffin
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    #209839

    I am going to save BP and Director for last because I am the least certain about those two categories.

    Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant. I want anyone but Leo – his is my least favorite performance in the category – but I just don’t see enough voters coalescing for just one of the other nominees. Cranston, Fassbender and Redmayne will split the non-Leo vote. Damon is along for the ride. I would vote for Bryan Cranston.

    Best Actress: Charlotte Rampling for 45 Years. I know the conventional wisdom is with the brilliant Brie Larson, and I could be very happy with her winning, but I think the 3 young actresses will split votes (Larson, Lawrence and Ronan), Blanchett has won recently, and Rampling will garner many passion votes – enough older voters will combine with passion voters and Rampling will win.

    Best Supporting Actor: Syvlester Stallone. Oddly, Creed’s only nominee. The other four are all in BP nominees. I would vote for Mark Ruffalo. Mark Rylance isn’t well enough known or liked imo. Bale has won already. and Hardy isn’t very good in The Revenant. They like older male actors in this category.

    Best Supporting Actress: Rooney Mara in Carol. Carol is better liked overall than The Danish Girl. (TDG was my #4 and Carol was my #6 movie of the year). I would vote for Vikander. She has had an amazing year in film after film, but Mara was so moving. Either one would be a great winner. Leigh’s character is too weird for the win, Winslet has won before, and McAdams won’t get enough passion votes. I love all five actresses.

    Best Original Screenplay: Spotlight. This way they give an Oscar to Tom McCarthy for his achievement. Esp. if Spotlight wins BP. Inside Out seems like the 2nd place finish. Straight Outta Compton has only this one nomination. Bridge Of Spies is slick but not substantial enough. Ex-Machina hasn’t been seen by enough voters.

    Best Adapted Screenplay: Room. I think Room will win here, over The Big Short. I love all five of these screenplays. But I do think it’s a two-way race. If The Big Short is strong enough to win BP, it can win here too. Room is a BP nominee and a Director nominee too.

    Best Cinematography: The Revenant. I vastly prefer Robert Richardson’s gorgeous 70-mm photography of The Hateful Eight, really filling the screen with striking images. But I think the lure of three in a row for Emmanuel Luzbecki will be too strong. Loved Carol’s more delicate camerawork as well.

    Best Production Design: The Martian. Mars was far more interesting visually than Mad Max’s futuristic Fury Road. Loved The Danish Girl’s european roaring twenties. Don’t understand why The Revenant is nominated here?

    Best Costume Design: Cinderella. Sandy Powell’s sumptous costumes are too dazzling to lose. The Danish Girl’s twenties clothes are pitch perfect and Carol’s fifties garb is fantastic. Why oh why are the dreadful costumes from Mad Max and The Revenant in this category??? WTF?

    Best Film Editing: this one depends largely on what wins BP. I think the three real contenders for BP are The Big Short, The Revenant and Spotlight. They are all here. But The Revenant is not nominated for screenplay and Titanic was a I believe the last time a movie won BP without a screenplay nomination. I am thinking the jazzier editing from The Big Short will win here; Spotlight is superb but not flashy enough to win. I hated The Revenant’s editing but if it sweeps….

    Best Score: Ennio Morricone for The Hateful Eight. I wish there was MORE score in the movie, so I love this music. And I didn’t like TH8. Carol’s score is sublime. They love John Williams but how much of the score is original and how much is old themes? Bridge of Spies is very ordinary and Sicario? WTF? Don’t get that one at all.

    Best Song: “Writing’s On The Wall”, Spectre. I know: Lady Gaga and Diane Warren, but The Hunting Ground? Huh? Youth’s song is different but I think too different for the win.

    Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Mad Max: Fury Road. Don’t agree with it, but it’s going to win. An unknown film nobody has ever really heard of and smudges for The Revenant. No subtle makeup was nominated this year. Oh well…

    Best Sound Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road will win instead of the far superior The Martian. Ho hum….

    Best Sound Mixing: Mad Max: Fury Road again will win instead of the far superior The Martian. Ho hum some more!

    Best Visual Effects: The Martian will win this one. The film is technically more difficult and breathtaking and thrilling. They will get this one right!

    Best Animated Film: Inside Out. Anomalisa is incredibly intelligent but that screenplay nomination tells me that Inside Out will indeed win.

    Best Documentary: Amy has been winning just about everything and I think it will continue it’s winning streak.

    Best Foreign Language Film: Son Of Saul. But I think Mustang could surprise, esp. if female Oscar voters coalesce around it. I would pick Mustang.

    Best Director: my fear: Alejandro G. Inarritu will repeat – big groan! I really dont’ like his direction at all. And I hated George Miller’s direction. Any of the other three would thrill me, particularly my pick: Lenny Abrahamson, but I could be very happy with Adam McKay or Tom McCarthy. This one feels up in the air. There IS a scenario where passion votes get my pick Lenny Abrahamson the Oscar! It is an amazing directorial achievement: half the movie in a small cramped claustrophobic room, eliciting a great child actor perf. from Jacob Tremblay, terrific suspense, beautfully played scenes, great editing, rhythms, just beautiful…

    Best Picture: The same 3 films: The Big Short, The Revenant and Spotlight are battling it out. But The Revenant doesn’t have a screenplay nomination. All 3 have the all-important film editing nomination. The Big Short is the most political and the most in tune with where things are politically right now. Spotlight is a safer political movie. The Revenant is the most right-wing of these three movies. Not sure, but I think Spotlight will win here, and also for Best Director ultimately.

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    Monty
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    #209841

    Best Picture: The Revenant
    I think it is between Spotlight and The Revenant because they are the films which overperform in nominations. (Ruffalo and McAdams for Spotlight, Tom Hardy, Production Design, Costume Design for The Revenant). BP could easily go to Spotlight too.

    Best Director: Alejandro G. Inarritu
    I think it is between AGI and George Miller. The films scored the largest amount of nominations. In the past few years, this award seems to go to the films with biggest technical achievement (e.g. Gravity, Life of Pi). The Revenant and MMFR ticks the box.

    Best Actor: Leonardo Dicaprio
    How can I say? The biggest lock across all categories. Overdue. Very respected. His film overperform with an insane 12 nominations. No clear 2nd place.

    Best Actress: Brie Larson
    Her film overperforms by getting best director nomination. Great, emotional performance that the academy usually goes for. This race is done.

    Best Supporting Actor: Sylvester Stallone
    He is so much respected in the industry. The cheer was the loudest when he won Golden Globe and landed a Oscar nomination. Next biggest lock for win except Dicaprio

    Best Supporting Actress: Rooney Mara
    I am not sure and have to wait for SAG. The award could easily go to Vikander or Winslet. 

    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short
    Could easily go to Room 

    Best Original Screenplay: Spotlight
    A lock

    Best Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
    MM has the best editing IMO. But if Spotlight is the actual frontrunner for BP, it has to win this one to get at least 3 wins. I don’t think McCarthy (directing), Ruffalo and McAdams can win

    Best Cinematography: The Revenant

    Best Costume Design: Cinderella
    Could go to MM

    Best Production Design: Mad Max: Fury Road
    Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Mad Max: Fury Road
    Best Sound Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
    Best Sound Mixing: Mad Max: Fury Road
    Best Visual Effects: Star War: The Force Awakens
    Best Score: Star War: The Force Awakens
    Best Animated Feature: Inside Out 

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    Damiansport1
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    #209842

    Best Picture: Spotlight (or Revenant)
    Director: Inarritu
    Actor: Leo
    Acress: Brie Larson
    Supporting actor: Stallone
    Supporting actress: Vikander
    Screenplay (original): Spotlight
    Screenplay (adapted) Big Short
    Editing: Big Short
    Cinematography: Lubezki
    Animated: Inside Out
    Foreign: Son of Saul

    Mad Max will win most of techs. Star Wars probably will get shutout. Maybe effects?

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    Sasha
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    #209843

    Passion votes only work in nominating stage. Honestly I wouldn’t be shocked if Charlotte was third or even second during that process. After nominations are announced it’s a pure popularity contest. They don’t have to watch anything, they just vote for the one with most buzz. It’s gonna be either Larson or Ronan and for now I’m leaning towards Larson.

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    babypook
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    #209844

    If they resist giving Lubezki another Oscar and this soon, my fingers are crossed for John Seale. He deserves another one. His work, is superb, and all the time.

    He’s got a far better chance than Deakins, who btw has more nominations than any other working/alive today.

    I also am not a huge fan of Son of Saul. I’d rather see it go to another film, such as Mustang, which has an unforgettable ending. But then, I havent seen all of the contenders.

    Anyways, those are the two ‘upset’s I’m pondering right now.

     

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    DamianWayne
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    #209845

    Yeah if it’s not Chivo, it’ll be John Seale. Tough call between the two. Even I had a hard time picking which one I wanted to give it to in the ‘If you got to vote’ thread. (I went with Seale btw)

    Poor Deakins. I imagine if they ever decided to include the names of the nominees in the tech categories on the ballot, he’d win immediately. And since I doubt Hail Ceasar will be a contender, someone really needs to start a campaign for him for when Blade Runner 2 comes out. It would be his 14 or 15th nomination at that point.

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    Damiansport1
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    #209846

    Hail Ceasar looks so oscar bait but got february release for some reason

    i think Lubezki will beat Seale. His work was better than ever. just spectacular

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    Teridax
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    #209847

    UGH. Its like Spotlight has already won Best Picture, Steve Carell should have been an easy nom for The Big Short.

    This race just became “Artist” levels of boring IMO. Tom McCarthy will probably win Directing. I just haven’t changed my predictions yet from The Revenant.  ;P 

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    pablozedd
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    #209848

    Best Picture: Spotlight
    Director: Alejandro G. Inarritu
    Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio
    Actress: Brie Larson
    Supporting actor: Sylvester Stallone Supporting actress: Kate Winslet (though I root for Vikander or even Mara, but Winslet deserves too)
    Screenplay (original): Spotlight
    Screenplay (adapted): Room (or The Big Short)
    Song: The Hunting Ground (Til It Happens to You)
    Animated: Inside Out
    Foreign: Son of Saul

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    Zooey the Dreamer
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    #209849

    Winslet deserves nothing for this performance.

    The thing about Stallone. He makes me think of Mickey Rourke who had more precursors’ love (including a SAG nod and a BAFTA win). He got the same emotional responce from the crowd at the Globes but he lost the Oscar to Sean Penn who had SAG and the major critics. I think Rylance will win the Oscar in the end – he’s far more respected and from a best picture nominee. Stallone has very little love from the major precursors. Even if he wins the Critics’ Choice (and he probably will), the SAG and BAFTA are the industry and they snubbed him. They did see his performance. It was out there for a month and a half and he was the big favorite. 

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    Zooey the Dreamer
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    #209850

    Spotlight will probably win best picture, directing and original screenplay and I like the film, so I’m fine with that. 

    Mad Max: Fury Road and The Revenant will probably win more Oscars though. 
    I have Mad Max: FR for cinematography, editing, visual effects and production design.
    I have The Revenant for actor, sound mixing, sound editing and make-up & hairstyling.

    The sound categories are tricky. The Revenant has so much of what they love rewarding in the categories – animals, rivers, winds, bow shootings. It will take at least one of the sound categories. Cinematography is crazy but at this point I can see Seale winning the ASC and the Oscar, even though I think Lachman should be winning. But it won’t happen, not even with the ASC giving him their award.  

    Actress and Actor are done. Directing is interesting but I think the DGA will go with McCarthy.

    The WGA will honor the two actual screenplay winners – Spotlight and the awful The Big Short. But Room still has a shot.

    Supporting Actor – This one will be tricky on Oscar night. Stallone vs. Rylance, with Ruffalo the dark horse.

    Supporting Actress – Precursors could make some damage but it’ll be Vikander vs. Mara.

     

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    ADouble
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    #209851

    Best Picture: Spotlight
    I was wavering on this after the Globes shut-out, ACE, and BAFTA Director misses, but it still seems like the best bet. The Revenant is missing that ever-important Screenplay nom, and I’m still not convinced the Big Short is as big a player as others think. Hard to say for sure without DGA, PGA, and SAG, but I don’t see it right now.

    Best Director: Tom McCarthy
    Because while it could totally happen, especially this year, I’m just not courageous enough to predict a Picture/Director split without at least DGA to support it.

    Best Actor: Leonardo Dicaprio
    As much as I would love to see a Fassbender upset, this one’s a lock.

    Best Actress: Brie Larson
    This one seemed like a lock even before Room dramatically overperformed nomination-wise. Now it seems almost as cut and dry as Actor.

    Best Supporting Actor: Sylvester Stallone
    This one is still difficult to predict. Mark Rylance has been the most sturdy in this constantly moving category, especially with Elba missing, so that has to be considered. If they really LOVE Spotlight or the Revenant, they could easily go for Ruffalo or Hardy. Bale just seems more like they threw another nom at an actor they clearly really like. I’m guessing the emotional element of the Stallone Lifetime Achievement Award carries him through, but it’s still anyone’s game, really.

    Best Supporting Actress: Rooney Mara
    Hard to go against Vikander with the year she’s had, but I’m leaning towards Mara right now in The Battle of The Category Fraud, just because they seem to like Carol a bit more than The Danish Girl. SAG will be telling on this one.

    Quick predictions on the rest:
    Original Screenplay: Spotlight (100% lock)
    Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short (Room is more of a threat here than it seemed, but I can’t see Big Short going home with nothing)
    Cinematography: The Revenant (would love to see Mad Max here, and it’s possible, but I’m not betting against Luzbeki. Poor Roger Deakins.)
     Costume Design: Carol
    Film Editing: Spotlight (really should be Mad Max, but if I’m going with Spotlight in Picture I kind of have to go for it here)
    Makeup: Mad Max: Fury Road
    Production Design: Mad Max: Fury Road
    Score: The Hateful Eight
    Song: The Hunting Ground
    Sound Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
    Sound Mixing: Mad Max: Fury Road
    Visual Effects: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
    Animated Feature: Inside Out 

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    bizzrise
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    #209852

    Passion votes only work in nominating stage. Honestly I wouldn’t be shocked if Charlotte was third or even second during that process. After nominations are announced it’s a pure popularity contest. They don’t have to watch anything, they just vote for the one with most buzz. It’s gonna be either Larson or Ronan and for now I’m leaning towards Larson.

    Am impress dear your all replyies are my favorites.

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    travis112096
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    #209853

    picture the revenant
    director inarritu
    actor dicaprio
    actress larson
    supporting actor stallone
    supporting actress mara
    original screenplay spotlight
    adapted screenplay big short
    animated feature inside out
    foreign film son of saul

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    Eddy Q
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    #209854

    Picture, Director, Supporting Actress and Production Design are all very up in the air at the moment, and there are a number of other categories I’m not entirely sure about either. Spotlight ended up with the most nominations it was likely to get, which gives it the edge over The Big Short for now at least. I’m not jumping on the Revenant train yet just because of its nomination haul.

    Picture: Spotlight
    Director: George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
    Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
    Actress: Brie Larson – Room 
    Supporting Actor: Sylvester Stallone – Creed
    Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
    Original Screenplay: Spotlight
    Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short
    Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
    Cinematography: The Revenant
    Production Design: The Martian
    Costume Design: The Danish Girl
    Makeup: Mad Max: Fury Road
    Visual Effects: Mad Max: Fury Road
    Sound Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
    Sound Mixing: Mad Max: Fury Road
    Score: The Hateful Eight
    Song: “Til It Happens to You” – The Hunting Ground
    Animated Feature: Inside Out
    Documentary Feature: Amy
    Foreign Language Film: Son of Saul
    Live-Action Short: Ave Maria
    Animated Short: Sanjay’s Super Team 
    Documentary Short: Body Team 12

     

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