ENTERTAIN WEEKLY annual issue predictions – GRAVITY edges out 12 & AH

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  • Scottferguson
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    #141991

    I will post the members comments in the thread for that.

    EW always for the top 6 categories not only picks the winners, but also guesses what the % of votes for each nominee will be (NOT the % chance of winning). First Dave Karger, and now Anthony Breznacan have a decent, but not perfect record (with weakness in the techs usually).

    Here are the predictions:

    Picture (they give % which of course is meaningless with preferential ballot; he says this is the guess for #1 votes, but then says Gravity will win overall)

    Gravity – 19%
    12 Years – 18%
    Amer Hust – 16%
    Wolf – 13%
    DBC – 10%
    Nebraska – 8%
    Her – 6%
    Capt Phillips – 5%
    Philomena – 5%

    I’ll post for each category since this may take some time

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    Scottferguson
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    #141993

    Actor –

    MM – 30%
    LiD – 24%
    Ejiofor – 20%
    Dern – 18%
    Bale – 8%

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    Scottferguson
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    #141994

    Actress –

    Blanchett – 35%
    Adams – 25%
    Dench – 20%
    Bullock – 15%
    Streep – 5%

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    Scottferguson
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    #141995

    Supporting actor –

    Leto – 38%
    Fassbender – 20%
    Akbi – 15%
    Hill – 15%
    Cooper – 12%

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    Scottferguson
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    #141996

    Supporting actress –

    Nyong’o – 28%
    Lawrence – 26%
    Squibb – 22%
    Hawkins – 17%
    Roberts – 7%

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    Scottferguson
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    #141997

    Director –

    Cuaron – 28%
    McQueen – 25%
    Russell – 21%
    Payne – 14%
    Scorsese – 12%

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    Scottferguson
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    #141998

    Winners of other categories:

    Orig sp – Her
    Adap sp – 12 Yrs
    Film editing – Gravity
    Cinematography – Gravity
    Prod Design – Great Gatsby
    Costume Design – Amer Hustle
    Makeup/Hair – Dallas Buyers
    Visual effects – Gravity
    Sound editing – Gravity
    Sound mixing – Gravity
    Original score – Gravity
    Original song – Frozen
    FL FIlm – Great Beauty
    Doc feature – Act of Killing
    Doc short – Lady in #6
    Live action short – That Wasn’t Me
    Animated short – Get a Horse

    That would make it 8 for Gravity, 3 for DBC, 2 for 12 Yrs, 2 for Frozen, 1 for AM (costumes only), 1 for Gatsby, 1 for Her

    i disagree at the moment for Orig SP, costume, maybe doc feature

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    Nessie
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    #141999

    Interesting reading how the Academy members (Actress, Producer, Director, Screenwriter, Cinematographer) voted. Only unanimous selection I saw was McConaughey. Even the other “locks” Leto and Blanchett didn’t score all their votes.

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    24Emmy
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    #142000

    Orig sp – 12 Yrs
    Adap sp – Her

    Adapted, Original

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    Macbeth
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    #142001

    How accurate is EW when it comes to this stuff, generally?

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    endaugust
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    #142002

    ^ Just another opinion, among thousands.

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    Stardust
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    #142003

    They basically chose all the frontrunners. 

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    DD
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    #142004

    How accurate is EW when it comes to this stuff, generally?

    Honestly, if you’re trying to win your Oscar pool I wouldn’t go with EW.

    I’ve entered Oscar pools the past four years. In 2010 & 2011 I won because I copied Dave Karger’s predictions. But I BARELY squeaked out the win. The past two years I relied on EW as well, though I went with some of my own picks. (NOTE: I lost my Oscar pools the last two years).

    With that said, Anthony Brezican scored 21/24 last year if I’m not mistaken. So far he seems pretty reliable. I’ll make my final Oscar predictions this year based on my instincts and the opinion of the best Oscar predictors. I’m talking about the people who consistently predict well across the board. Also, look to Tom O’Neil for upsets in the acting categories. He usually nails them, though I’m still not feeling the Leo prediction. MM is just too strong and, if he loses, the cries of “he was robbed!” will be rampant and that’ll lead to a possibly undeserved makeup Oscar win next year. Let’s just get this over with. 

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    Scottferguson
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    #142005

    Look, I disagree with some of these, but this is not remotely “just another opinion.” This is someone whose fulltime job it is to cover awards, and who has likely talked to hundreds of members. This isn’t some random guy off the street. If he’s way off, then his job could be on the line.

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    Nessie
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    #142006

    It’s hard to read online the digital edition, but Cate Blanchett only got 2 of the 5 votes from the Academy members EW tallied, though luckily for her nobody else got 2: one each for Judi, Sandra and Amy. Those are real voters, not pundits. I’m surprised her support seems so weak.

    Scott, who do you think the actress they quote is – they don’t give a name but from the description I’m guessing Jodie Foster? The indie filmmaker?

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