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EW Oscar predictions/member choices

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  • Scottferguson
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    #55073

    Entertainment Weekly’s annual pre-Oscar issue is out.

    As usual, it has Dave Karger’s predictions, plus projected % of the vote in the top categories (NOT % chance of winning – his projection of how the vote will go, how close some of the races are).

    Also, as usual they have four anonymous members giving their picks and the explanations.

    Creating a separate thread rather than spreading this around a bunch of different ones based on interest in previous years.

    Here goes:

    Best picture (I guess this is % of initial #1 votes – the winner will go to the one with a majority after all preferential votes are allocated); projected winner in BOLD

    ARTIST – 20%
    The Help – 15%
    Hugo – 15%
    Descendants – 10%
    Midnight in Paris – 10%
    Moneyball – 10%
    Tree of Life – 8%
    War Horse – 7%
    Extremely Loud – 5%

    Best actor –
    CLOONEY – 35%
    Dujardin – 30%
    Pitt – 15%
    Bichir – 10%
    Oldman – 10%

    Best actress –
    DAVIS – 35%
    Streep – 30%
    Williams – 20%
    Close – 10%
    Mara – 5%

    Best supporting actor  –
    PLUMMER – 45%
    Von Sydow – 30%
    Branagh – 15%
    Hill – 5%
    Nolte – 5%

    Best supporting actress –
    SPENCER – 35%
    McCarthy – 25%
    Bejo – 20%
    Chastain – 10%
    McTeer – 10%

    Best director –
    ARTIST – 30%
    Hugo – 25%
    Midnight in Paris – 20%
    Tree of Life – 15%
    Descendants – 10%

    Animated feature – Rango
    Foreign language film – A Separation
    Original screenplay – Midnight in Paris
    Adapted screenplay – Descendants
    Cinematography – Tree of Life
    Film editing – Artist
    Art direction – Hugo
    Costume design – Artist
    Make up – Iron Lady
    Original score – Artist
    Original song – Muppets
    Visual effects – Rise of the Planet of the Apes
    Sound mixing – Hugo
    Sound editing – Hugo
    Documentary feature – Paradise Lost 3
    Documentary short – Saving Face
    Live action short – Shore
    Animated short – Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lesmore

    Members picks in the next post

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    dannyboy.
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    #55075

    If The Artist wins Costume Design, I might shut my tv off. I LOVE that Rise of the Planet of the Apes is a heavy favorite to be regarded as an Oscar winner.

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    Scottferguson
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    #55076

    Now for the members picks, with some brief summary of the reasons:

    Actress (past Oscar nominee who has appeared in both comedies and dramas)

    Picture – Moneyball (Hugo a children’s picture, and not Artist because best picture should have sound)
    Director – Artist (pulled off the near impossible)
    Actor – Dujardin (a quintessential film performance – it was all about his face)
    Actress – Davis (a revelation; Streep gets nominated every year)
    Sup Actor – Hill
    Sup Actress – Spencer

    Writer (past Oscar writing nominee as well as filmmaker known for both silly and serious)

    Picture – Tree of Life (the most movie film of the year even with its flaws)
    Director – Tree of Life (biggest risk)
    Actor – Bicher (no acting technique, reminded his of great Italian neorealist performances)
    Actress – Davis (walked a successful tightrope; Streep better in J&J)
    Sup Actor – Plummer (totally unsentimental)
    Sup Actress – McTeer (kicked ass, but not sure yet if it will be his choice)

    Producer (wheeler dealer make of big budget films, action, thrillers, even love stories)

    Picture – Artist (best of the good, not great, nominees
    Director – Artist (Hugo a close second)
    Actor – Clooney (for his subtleties and vulnerabilities)
    Actress – Streep (for doing it seamlessly)
    Sup Actor – Plummer (a career award)
    Sup Actress – Spencer (a great performance0

    Executive (has handled blockbusters to Oscar fare)

    Picture – Artist (risky and uplifting)
    Director – Artist (Scorsese won too recently)
    Actor – Clooney (extraordinary, lovely and nuanced)
    Actress – Davis (Streep better in J&J; this not one of her best performances/impersonations)
    Sup Actor – Plummer (an actor’s actor)
    Sup Actress – Spencer (flashy, comedic, a perfect supporting role)

    As always – more often than not, the winners don’t conform to what this small sample indicates, although this year they do seem more to represent the consensus than usual

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    babypook
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    #55077

    If The Artist wins Costume Design, I might shut my tv off. I LOVE that Rise of the Planet of the Apes is a heavy favorite to be regarded as an Oscar winner.

    “If The Artist wins Costume Design, I might shut my tv off. “

    Dannyboy! I was thinking of putting my foot through the screen! Perhaps we have different reasons for this, but I applaud you!

    And considering that Anonymous (which is my choice for the win), Hugo and Jane Eyre are nominated along with “The Artist”‘s repulsive fur-bedecked outfits (havent seen W.E yet), I personally wouldnt have given it a nomination to begin with.

    Shame on BAFTA.

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    Benedick
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    #55078

    Anyone else surprised to see Alexander Payne last for Directing?

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    Scottferguson
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    #55079

    Are the furs real in The Artist? I have no idea.

    I understand the dislike of real fur, but I can’t imagine holding having people in the 1920s wearing fur coats as anything unacceptable. since it was accurate.

    I don’t think The Artist deserves costume design for other reasons, but using fur coats (particularly if as is likely they weren’t real) wouldn’t be one of them.

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    vlaxym
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    #55080

    I’m just hoping Clooney is not winning. Most people think its Dujardin, but i think its really close. Good Night and Good Luck helped him to win his first, i’m just hoping that dreadful The Ides of March is not gonna do the same.

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    GhostOrchid
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    #55081

    Now for the members picks, with some brief summary of the reasons:

    Actress (past Oscar nominee who has appeared in both comedies and dramas)

    Actress – Davis (a revelation; Streep gets nominated every year)

    What a great reason…… Why am I not surprised?

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    BTN
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    #55082

    LOL there is thinking that the Best Picture of 2012 should have spoken dialogue and be like 99% of the films made.

    I also believe makeup is between Nobbs and Lady which have best actress nominations and voters are fimilar with those movies and probably have seen them.   

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    dannyboy.
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    #55083

    I thought The Artist contained custom-designed monkey furs..? Let alone it not actually deserving the win.

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    David Buchanan
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    #55084

    Bothered by the reasons listed for voting for Davis: saying that Streep was better in a previous performance is not a sufficient reason to not vote for her. Just say that you thought Davis gave the better performance!

    Formerly known in the forums as PianoMann.

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    Scottferguson
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    #55085

    I edited the comments a bit to give the juiciest bits – all the entries had more detailed reasons, so don’t take that as the final word – buy the magazine to see the rest

    On the fur issue: the way these things work, with The Artist being a high-profile Oscar contender, my guess – and it is only an educated guess, not certainty – is if there was real fur used, even more emphasized, in the film that PETA would have gone after it. That ould e the normal thing for them to do, particularly since it is competing for costumes.

    If it wasn’t real fur, then for me there is zero issue involved. It’s like objecting to smoking scenes when they are clearly period or situation appropriate.

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    dannyboy.
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    #55086

    I have no problem with faux fur.. I am pretty sure it is confirmed to be real.. Not 100% though. Can anyone confirm this one way or the other?

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    PaulHJR
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    #55087

    Actress (past Oscar nominee who has appeared in both comedies and dramas)
    Picture – Moneyball (Hugo a children’s picture, and not Artist because best picture should have sound)

     Her opinion is a minority in AMPAS, surely, but good on her to share it with EW.

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    PreludeinCSharpMinor
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    #55088

    Morons! They are comparing Streep to other performances YET fail to mention Davis was far superior in DOUBT than The Help. Oh, let Davis win and get up on stage with her obnoxious weaves and self-rightous speech. Then the Sasha Stones will be happy a black wins best actress.

    Actress is going to be a close race. I’ve talk to about 30 members and most told me they are going with Streep, a few for Williams, and a few for close, NO ONE said Davis. Mind you, it was only 30 out of 5000 so this comment if just for entertainement purposes. I went back to the EW issue 2 years ago and 3 voted for Streep and 1 Bullock and look who won!

    Actor, the consensus was Clooney.

    Supporting Actress was, surprisingly McCarthy by a mile. Could The Help love be overestimated.

    Supporting Actor..disgustingly unanimous for Plummer. Sorry, I didn’t find anything good about the movie or his work.

    Picture…ugh, THE ARTIST
     

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