January 4, 2013 at 12:01 pm #81163
EW usually does a good job with these, hitting 4 or 5/5 in most categories (although now that Karger’s gone, who knows?)… Here’s their picks this year:
Best Picture (predicting 10 nominees this year)
BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL
LIFE OF PI
SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
ZERO DARK THIRTY
FYC: DJANGO UNCHAINED, DARK KNIGHT RISES, SKYFALL
Bradley Cooper, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Daniel Day-Lewis, LINCOLN
John Hawkes, THE SESSION
Hugh Jackman, LES MISERABLES
Denzel Washington, FLIGHT
FYC: Jack Black, BERNIE
Jessica Chastain, ZERO DARK THIRTY
Marion Cotillard, RUST & BONE
Jennifer Lawrence, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Emmanuelle Riva, AMOUR
Naomi Watts, THE IMPOSSIBLE
FYC: Quvenzhane Wallis, BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, ARGO
Robert DeNiro, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Philip Seymour Hoffman, THE MASTER
Tommy Lee Jones, LINCOLN
Christoph Waltz, DJANGO UNCHAINED
FYC: Javier Bardem, SKYFALL
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, THE MASTER
Sally Field, LINCOLN
Anne Hathaway, LES MISERABLES
Helen Hunt, THE SESSIONS
Maggie Smith, THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL
FYC: Nicole Kidman, THE PAPERBOY
Ben Affleck, ARGO
Kathryn Bigelow, ZERO DARK THIRTY
Tom Hooper, LES MISERABLES
Ang Lee, LIFE OF PI
Steven Spielberg, LINCOLN
FYC: PT Anderson, THE MASTER; Michel Haneke, AMOUR
Best Original Screenplay
ZERO DARK THIRTY
Best Adapted Screenplay
BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
THE PERKS OF BEING A WALLFLOWER
SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
FYC: LIFE OF PI
They also have an interesting “Nominate This!” section, where 5 talents picks their FYCS:
James Franco – THE PERKS OF BEING A WALLFLOWER for Best Picture
Jason Reitman – LOOPER for Best Original Screenplay
Alfre Woodard – Emayatzy Corinealdi, MIDDLE OF NOWHERE for Best Actress
Aaron Sorkin – PROMISED LAND for Best Picture
Reese Witherspoon – Naomi Watts, THE IMPOSSIBLE for Best Actress
Thoughts?January 4, 2013 at 12:15 pm #81165
Dave Karger, who has done this for many years, moved to a new gig elsewhere this year – he was usually pretty good, but the new guy is an unknown quantity
1st significant exclusions involve The Master (picture, actor, director)
Django for picture and Tarantino, no DiCaprioJanuary 4, 2013 at 12:24 pm #81166
Can we all reflect on The Master for two seconds.. Let’s say there is only one Supporting award given each year (can women not compete with the boys? Ridiculous!). Would Amy Adams and PSH really compete for the same award?! Let alone Christoph Waltz who OWNED Django (imo). I cannot even recall how many times I have called Maggie Smith the greatest living English language actress on these boards but if she gets nominated for Best Exotic, when she was not even in the top three best performances in her film, I will be somewhat disheartened. The role was so poorly written, so paint by numbers story-arc, I literally believe she could have done it in her sleep.January 4, 2013 at 12:26 pm #81167
Also, hopefully this settles once and for all that there is a consensus among leading media Oscar predictors that Amour and Riva are both in the running – though not locked – for nominations. My whole point in keeping mentioning this is because they have been under-considered in these parts, and I’ve just been trying to help out those who want maximum information in making predictions. (I like The Master just as much and was the first person here to downgrade its chances in most categories).
Both the film and Riva will likely be in my final guesses, but both have some chance of not making it.January 4, 2013 at 12:33 pm #81168
Interestingly, these are actually pretty close to Karger’s predictions, with the differences here being TBEMH in for Django Unchained, Riva in for Mirren, Waltz in for Bardem, Smith in for Weaver, Looper in for The Master, and TPOBAW in for Life of Pi.January 4, 2013 at 12:33 pm #81169
I share your admiration for Amour.. Riva gave my second favorite performance by a Leading actress this year (still have to see a few including ZD30, why does no one in NY have screeners for that?) I am afraid both Weisz and Riva are going to miss out. I think Amour has a shot for BP, though! I thought Riva was on lockdown for the HFPA, I know its only the Golden Globes, but that miss hurt her chances significantly.January 4, 2013 at 12:33 pm #81170
Well, I was surprised by the exclusions until I found out Dave Krager isn’t doing this anymore.
“Django Unchained” and “The Master” both missing out on Best Picture? I don’t see that happening.
All of the acting categories could very well stack up the way that he’s saying, though none of them look like my own predictions.
Interesting to see “Best Exotic Marigold Hotel” in Picture but not in Adapted Screenplay. I have them switched.
Most notable for me is Reese Witherspoon’s support of Naomi Watts in “The Impossible.” Did you see that, Scott? I know it is just one opinion, but that might be representative of the kind of support the acting branch is throwing her way.January 4, 2013 at 12:38 pm #81171
This new guy at EW is awful. His writing and predictions aren’t close to Dave Karger’s.January 4, 2013 at 12:58 pm #81172
^ I agree, ATypical. His reasonings are “This person was nominated for this precursor…”, and it doesn’t reflect whisperings in the Academy or current heat. We’ll see when nods are announced but as of now, I am disappointed.January 4, 2013 at 1:17 pm #81173
Ten nominees and not one of them is Django Unchained? Yeah right.January 4, 2013 at 1:17 pm #81174
Those are ugly predictions. Amour and Best Exotic over Django?January 4, 2013 at 3:11 pm #81175
The Master is getting a screenplay nomination. PTA has been nominated in writing for Boogie Nights, Magnolia, and There Will Be Blood. I still really don’t see Looper making it in. I still think Master will sneak in Picture/Director, but even with the structure and nature of the script, I still think he’s getting in.
Django is incredibly bloody, but it has appeared on every Best Picture award list- PGA, BFCA, Golden Globes. That’s still a hard streak to break, especially in a year of 10.
I think Ang Lee will miss out for directing, though I would not be surprised if he did make it in. There’s really not much buzz or love for it like Hugo or Avatar got. Think it has the same fate as 127 Hours minus the acting prediction and add visual effects.
Hotel is a very good dark horse, but I think Skyfall, Moonrise, Playbook have a better shot with the dramedy and the British vote especially Skyfall.January 4, 2013 at 3:23 pm #81176
One thing in minor defense re Django – the deadline for this might have been before or just after it opened. The favorable outlook for Django has improved greatly since last weekend, when it outgrossed Les Mis, and more so now that it has been the #1 film for two days running. I’m not sure I would have listed it last week; I almost certainly would now. That’s the problem with early magazine deadlines.January 4, 2013 at 3:32 pm #81177
A screenplay should not consist of the “N” word over 100x.
I hope Django misses the cut there..as well as any acting nomination..
IN fact..i hope its a complete shutout although i do fear a wasted
nomination or 2 in the tech categories..
BTW..I dislike Tarantino and all of his films…as if you didnt guess…January 4, 2013 at 3:44 pm #81178
I wonder what would happen to these “Ya we’re guessing what Oscar will do” groups if the Oscars just, stopped? Would they be scrambling to emulate some other group? Or, would they be forced to think for themselves? The latter could be a daunting, unfamiliar territory for them to tread into.
Btw for what it’s worth, Django makes my top five.