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EW’s Oscar predictions/vote estimates

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  • Scottferguson
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    #91581

    As always, Entertainment Weekly lists it picks in all categories, as always, they estimate the % of vote in top categories nominees will get.

    Not as always, new guy Anthony Breznican (no track record, unlike Dave Karger) does this.

    Over recent years, no one has ever won a top Oscar without being within 5% of the predicted winner – that being said, EW is saying the only category that is a lock is best actor – they aren’t even saying Hathaway is a lock (though likely).

    These are NOT % chances of winning, but rather guesses as to the % of votes going to each, which at least conveys how close some races are.

    I do this every year, but this shouldn’t supercede existing threads for categories.

    PICTURE:

    (not sure what % means since it is preferential, but here goes):

    Argo – 20%
    Lincoln – 16%
    SLP – 15%
    Life of Pi – 14% 
    Beasts of the Southern Wild – 12%
    Les Miserables – 10%
    Zero Dark Thirty – 8%
    Django Unchained – 3%
    Amour – 2%

    More to come shortly                           

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    Scottferguson
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    #91583

    Actress –

    Lawrence – 30%
    Riva – 25%
    Chastain – 25%
    Watts – 15%
    Wallis – 5%

    Actor –

    Day-Lewis – 60%  (this is virtually unprecedented)
    Jackman – 15%
    Cooper – 10%
    Phoenix – 10%
    Washington – 5%       

                   

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    PJ Edwards
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    #91584

    If Amour is only 2% of the vote, Riva has less then no chance. 

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    Scottferguson
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    #91585

    Supporting Actress –

    Hathaway – 40%
    Field – 35%
    Hunt – 10%
    Adams – 10%
    Weaver – 5%

    Supporting Actor –

    DeNiro – 31%
    Jones – 30%
    Hoffman – 20%
    Waltz – 10%
    Arkin – 9%

    Director –

    Spielberg – 27%
    Lee – 25% 
    Russell – 22%      
    Haneke – 21%
    Zeitlin – 5%                       

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    Scottferguson
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    #91586

    Other categories –

    Orig SP – Amour
    Adap SP – Lincoln
    Cinematography – Life of Pi     
    Editing – Argo
    Production Design – Lincoln
    Original score – Life of Pi
    Song – Skyfall  
    Sound editing – Skyfall
    Sound mixing – Les Miserables  
    Costume design – Anna Karenina
    Make up – Les Miserables
    Visual effects – Life of Pi
    Foreign language – Amour
    Doc feature – Searching for Sugar Man
    Doc short – Inocente
    Animated feature – Wreck It Ralph 
    Animated short – Adam & Dog
    Live Action short – Death of a Shadow          

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    Scottferguson
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    #91587

    If Amour is only 2% of the vote, Riva has less then no chance. 

    My guess is Amour gets a lot more #1 votes than that, but there is little way the broad mass of members would votes an art film in French BP. That has some impact on voting for actress, but I don’t think that much, and in some way helps Riva since it is a more credible top category in which to award the film.

    They show Haneke getting 21% of the vote for director (competitive in a tight race), and say it will win OSP as well as FL, so it’s not like it’s some obscure film at this point.   

    How many votes did Iron Lady get for BP last year? The answer of course is 0, yet Streep won.  

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    Scottferguson
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    #91588

    Someone just told me Huff Po has a chart with % chance of winning – totally absurd, but here it is:

    #

    examples – Argo 94% chance of winning BP

    Spielberg 89% chance of winning BD

    Jones 50% chance of winning Supp Actor     

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    Daniel B.
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    #91589

    Supporting Actor –

    DeNiro – 31%
    Jones – 30%
    Hoffman – 20%
    Waltz – 10%
    Arkin – 9%

    10 per cent…really? With a Golden Globe and BAFTA win?

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    Scottferguson
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    #91590

    It’s that kind of year  

    My guess is that the range though b/w #1 & 5 will be something like 27 – 17% 

    My guess though is that their deadline might have been before BAFTA. 

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    Junk
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    #91591

    [quote=”Scottferguson”]Supporting Actor –

    DeNiro – 31%
    Jones – 30%
    Hoffman – 20%
    Waltz – 10%
    Arkin – 9%

    10 per cent…really? With a Golden Globe and BAFTA win?[/quote]
    Exactly, 10% is too less. I was beginning to wonder Waltz would actually waltz away with the prize. The only reason I can think of him not getting more votes is that he won just three years ago. The winner is definitely between DeNiro and Jones. As great as Arkin was, he’s out of this for sure.

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    babypook
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    #91592
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    Baby Clyde
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    #91593

    According to EW ‘Argo’ only wins Editing and Picture???

    When the last time a Best Picture winner only won 2 Oscars in total? Does it have any other chances apart from Arkin’s slim one?

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    seabel
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    #91594

    I’m sorry but how do they know the %???

    This thread is ridiculous.

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    Scottferguson
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    #91595

    They don’t know, they are professional reporters who estimate based on reasonably good sourcing.

    I’ve posted this thread for several years, which takes a little time and effort. The EW article and this thread get a lot of views every year. One year when I didn’t post it, several people requested that I do so.

    I don’t appreciate your referring it to as ridiculous. It is a legitimate thing to run here. 

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    Jason Travis
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    #91596

    Supporting Actor and Actress are the hardest ones to predict. My safe predix are Jones and Lawrence, but my gut says one or both will be different.

    We must also think about the support for the films. Are voters going to warm up more to Lincoln or Django Unchained? The Master or Silver Linings Playbook? I’m not saying this should be the only base (as performance is really what matters) but look how those secret ballot voters said they chose- the majority were going with what movie they liked, not the actor.

    Is Django Unchained going to win anything? Even it’s Screenplay award seems shakey, despite other award circuits picking it as best. I don’t think the academy warms up to Tarantino as much as the rest of us. Could that hurt Waltz’s chances? He would be my personal pick, but I just don’t know. If De Niro wins, I will feel it’s only because of who he is and not his performance. Is the academy really going to give two actors their 3rd Oscar on the same night, that easily? Lewis at least will prevail on merit. De Niro’s would be based on everything but the performance- its ok, nothing to write home about.

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