Explain Your Oscar Prediction for Best Picture

Home // Forums // Movies // Explain Your Oscar Prediction for Best Picture

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 16 total)
Created
3 years ago
Last Reply
3 years ago
15
replies
591
views
15
users
1
1
1
  • Tom O’Neil
    Keymaster
    Joined:
    May 13th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #160602

    I picking “Unboken” at this point out of cynicism or dread. I fear the worst — that it’s that obvious, rah-rah triumph-over-adversity film. The fact that a woman directed it gives it cache, especially since the woman is Angie. But I really don’t WANT it to win. At this point I’m rooting for Birdman, sight unseen. I just KNOW that film is amazing! 

    Reply
    babypook
    Participant
    Joined:
    Nov 4th, 2010
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #160604

    There are multiple reasons why I am not chomping at the bit to go “rush out” to see Unbroken; political and national. I tend to trust the Director’s politics so we’ll see, but gung ho I am not.

    That leaves an “Domestic Violence with two surprise actors”, a nutbar murderer in a cast of against types, maybe even a singing witch and a worm hole.

    I tend to lean towards the pothead investigator and the wonderful Michael Keaton. Not having seen any of the upcoming contenders it’s folly to say much more.

    I sure hope they dont forget Ralph Fiennes and that gem of a film.

    ReplyCopy URL
    Nicole Dunn
    Participant
    Joined:
    Nov 25th, 2012
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #160605

    I’m going for Gone Girl at the moment. I personally enjoyed the book and think the trailers look outstanding. Out of the frontrunners, admidts Unbroken if nothing emerges, it seems the least likely to create controversey or backlash. It has buzz, a fantastic premiere slot at the NYFF and traction among the media as one too watch. If intense-hype prevades it before its release, I think it’s in trouble. But I am expecting/hoping raves, and with Fincher at the helm who isnt *overdue* as such but many feel was robbed with TSN, it can definitely win. I think it has strong contenders with Birdman, Foxcatcher, BoyHood, Unbroken etc… but Birdman may be too innovative or different to be overwhelmingly embraced, Foxcatcher didn’t premiere to raves, Boyhood is decisive and ‘boring’ too some and Angelina at the helm of Unbroken, and I’m positive it can emerge as a clear alternative. Fincher seems poised to deliver yet another masterpiece and being able to hotly contest catergories like Actress, Supporting Actor, Screenplay, Score etc, it’s my No.1 for BP.

    ReplyCopy URL
    BrokenFan
    Member
    Joined:
    Nov 16th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #160606

    FOXCATCHER FTW

    ReplyCopy URL
    KyleBailey
    Participant
    Joined:
    Nov 15th, 2013
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #160607

    I have Boyhood for now in #1 for safety and because I don’t like predicting under assumptions unless the trailer shows something special from an actor (aka Steve Carell and Daniel Day Lewis 2 years ago). I think Gone Girl and Foxcatcher are the ones to look out for. Birdman just out of judging the trailer doesn’t look like the Academy’s kind of “Best Picture”. They aren’t into weird or unrealistic movies (See Gravity, Avatar, The Dark Knight and see the last decade of Best Picture winners how they went with only realistic movies). But again, don’t judge a movie fully by its trailer. We shall see once it comes out. Other than that my predictions are kind of not in any order yet since I haven’t seen them but I think Interstellar is pretty safe for a nomination 

    ReplyCopy URL
    DominicCobb
    Participant
    Joined:
    Nov 12th, 2013
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #160608

    I reserve the right to call myself crazy this time next year for saying that my early bet for Picture is Interstellar. If it’s Nolan’s best (which it could be), I say it could definitely get in there. There wasn’t nearly enough love for The Dark Knight or Inception (though 8 noms a piece isn’t shabby), but he certainly has their attention.

    Its sci-fi premise may seem like a downside, but, since Gravity lost last year, we could see that snub as fuel for people saying that this year is the time that the Academy finally needs to start recognizing sci-fi. If it’s a hit (chances are high on this count) then that will help too. Also, the cast is chock full of past nominees and winners, and the release is in November, so I think this will absolutely be in the mix for Picture.

    Maybe I’m just a Nolan fanboy and I’m just hoping it’s good enough for BP. But I really do think this film has the potential to sweep everyone off their feet in a major way. Let’s not forget it only has a lack of buzz at the moment because people have barely seen any of it or heard anything about it. That all will certainly change soon, whether it’s for better or for worse time will only tell, but I’m betting (right now at least) the film will end up on top. 

    ReplyCopy URL
    manakamana
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jul 28th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #160609

    I am one of the furthest things from a Nolan fanboy, but I would also give Insterstellar the edge this far out.

    Part of the reason is because I’ve observed in the past the deafening (/confusing) buzz whenever his films are first released,  which in this case will be during a much more prime season of Oscar voting than his past films have been. And considering The Dark Knight and Inception both got 8 nominations as Summer releases suggests to me that Interstellar could put it in a real bent as the general public may well still be in a state of Nolan-euphoria as nominations will be tabulated (The Dark Knight Rises is an outlier here because The Dark Knight Rises sucks — I’m not big on the other two but they don’t suck, so as long as Interstellar passes that test…). 

    The other reason is just the general steam and narrative I’ve observed in the past couple of years. The big effects-heavy work of the year by a respected artist has been gaining more and more steam and momentum leading up to the top prize. 
    2009 – Avatar broke the mold. Initially challenged The Hurt Locker for Best Picture but ended up walking away with 3/9 prizes (Cinematography, Production Design, Visual Effects). 
    2010 – Inception wins 4/8 Oscars, the most of the night, including replicating Avatar’s wins in Cinematography/Visual Effects and adding both sound awards.
    2011 – Hugo wins 5/11 Oscars, the most of the night.
    2012 – Life of Pi wins 4/11 Oscars including Best Director (perhaps a happy accident, but seems in line with the general trend)
    2013 – Gravity wins 7/10 Oscars, including Best Director, Best Editing, and an acting nomination. 

    It would appear that it’s only a matter of time before one of these films breaks the glass ceiling and takes the Best Picture prize, even if the Directors’ branch continues to insist on snubbing Nolan for Director (and who knows how close he was both of his recent major opportunities) since we’ve seen in the past few years that they’re more willing to split the two top categories now. The general steam for the narrative of the “snubbed” Nolan, for whom most believe they expanded the Best Picture category in the first place, combined with how big the momentum could be for Interstellar in the period its released and possibly a box office juggernaut, his typically good reviews and a star ensemble cast that could convince the heretofore skeptical actors branch to embrace the tech-heavy film of the year seems like a solid guess for me this far out with many sights unseen. 

    Naturally, one can list as many cons for such a genre-heavy film as I did its pros, but I think most of the films in contention this year are along those lines (which makes it fun!). I can see it being Foxcatcher, I can see it being Boyhood, I can see it being The Imitation Game (although I think that’s more a Dallas Buyers Club than a King’s Speech). If a female-directed film is going to be in strong contention I’m thinking it would be Selma — not only is DuVernay a more proven talent behind the camera, but it would be a more historic choice to rally behind as well. And I don’t see why the Director’s branch would pick a Hollywood darling like Jolie when they could choose between the more respected likes of DuVernay, Miller, Iñarritu, Vallée, Leigh, Nolan, Linklater, etc. I maintain that the branch is unphased to this day by the outrage of snubbing Affleck over the likes of Haneke and Zeitlin.

    ReplyCopy URL
    starfishgirl
    Member
    Joined:
    Oct 10th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #160610

    You think The Imitation Game’s more of a Dallas Buyers Club, huh? Even with Weinstein behind it? I don’t know, the audience reaction seemed to be pretty rapturous according to all the reports. And probably the best thing for it would be for people to underestimate it at this point- it may turn out to be that “consensus” choice that always turns into the big threat later on. I’d keep an eye on that one- to me these other movies all look like critics choices that end up being a bit divisive, which gives it a potentially big opening if people continue to love it (I’m betting the Brits will line up big behind it too)

    As for Interstellar, maybe… but I’m just a bit wary of Nolan- I know people think he’s overdue for acknowledgement and all, but it’s possible the Academy just doesn’t like him that much. I don’t know, I suppose it’s possible, they did almost go for Gravity last year- maybe this time they’ll finally be be pushed into recognizing a sci-fi movie for the win.

    ReplyCopy URL
    Shawshank
    Member
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2013
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #160611

    You think The Imitation Game’s more of a Dallas Buyers Club, huh? Even with Weinstein behind it? I don’t know, the audience reaction seemed to be pretty rapturous according to all the reports. And probably the best thing for it would be for people to underestimate it at this point- it may turn out to be that “consensus” choice that always turns into the big threat later on. I’d keep an eye on that one- to me these other movies all look like critics choices that end up being a bit divisive, which gives it a potentially big opening if people continue to love it (I’m betting the Brits will line up big behind it too)

    As for Interstellar, maybe… but I’m just a bit wary of Nolan- I know people think he’s overdue for acknowledgement and all, but it’s possible the Academy just doesn’t like him that much. I don’t know, I suppose it’s possible, they did almost go for Gravity last year- maybe this time they’ll finally be be pushed into recognizing a sci-fi movie for the win.

    At this point I would go along with you and Cumberbatch will also get an Oscar Nom 

    ReplyCopy URL
    Etchie
    Member
    Joined:
    Nov 8th, 2013
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #160612

    EASILY, with only 250 #1 votes required to be nominated for Best Picture, INTO THE WOODS with so many Academy Voters involved on its production WILL BE NOMINATED BEST PICTURE.  Disney’s Oscar handlers should simply remind if not impose to these “built-in” Oscar Voters to place Into The Woods #1 in the Nomination Ballot. 

    ReplyCopy URL
    Ryan Lapierre
    Participant
    Joined:
    Dec 15th, 2013
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #160613

    Birdman because the film is different. Birdman has a great ensemble cast with critics calling it a masterpiece. That’s why I have Birdman. But Unbroken will not win BP.

    ReplyCopy URL
    Indonesian
    Member
    Joined:
    Sep 1st, 2014
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #160614

    Inherent Vice
    because I want PTA and Phoenix to get their due, and the premise looks uniquely still awards-baiting

    ReplyCopy URL
    vinny
    Participant
    Joined:
    May 20th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #160615

    I keep switching between “Foxcatcher” and “Boyhood” for the top spot. Both scream BP to me.

    ReplyCopy URL
    ETPhoneHome
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 3rd, 2013
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #160616

    The trailer for Unbroken just seemed to scream OSCAR so loudly that I moved it to #1, because while Boyhood is getting nominated, it just doesn’t feel like it could actually win. Same with Birdman and Inherent Vice. I’m afraid that when all is said and done, they won’t even need to bother bringing out the envelope, and just have Angie wait by the podium.

    ReplyCopy URL
    PJ Edwards
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jun 2nd, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #160617

    I picking “Unboken” at this point out of cynicism or dread. I fear the worst — that it’s that obvious, rah-rah triumph-over-adversity film. The fact that a woman directed it gives it cache, especially since the woman is Angie. But I really don’t WANT it to win. At this point I’m rooting for Birdman, sight unseen. I just KNOW that film is amazing! 

     That is my logic as well

    ReplyCopy URL
Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 16 total)
Reply To: Explain Your Oscar Prediction for Best Picture

You can use BBCodes to format your content.
Your account can't use Advanced BBCodes, they will be stripped before saving.

Similar Topics
Chris B... - Aug 18, 2017
Movies
Denis - Aug 18, 2017
Movies