January 31, 2016 at 9:06 am #213995
If “The Revenant” or “Mad Max: Fury Road” triumphs at the DGA next weekend it will be only the fifth time the award split with both PGA and SAG.
DGA: “Crouching Tiger, HIdden Dragon”
PGA: “Moulin Rouge”
SAG: “Gosford Park”
DGA: “A Beautiful Miind”
PGA: “The Aviator”
DGA: “Million Dollar Baby”
PGA: “12 Years a Slave”/”Gravity”
SAG: “American Hustle”
Obviously the SAG cast winner in these scenarios has never gone on to win Best Picture while the PGA and DGA are split two to two.January 31, 2016 at 9:13 am #213997
This is interesting .January 31, 2016 at 9:39 am #213998
Interesting. In a crazy year like this one a split is likely.January 31, 2016 at 9:40 am #213999
This year is a split.
DGA: George Miller!January 31, 2016 at 10:20 am #214000
If AGI wins DGA we have race between BS and Revenant in Best Picture category. If George Miller wins BS will win BP.January 31, 2016 at 10:21 am #214001
What If Ridley wins DGA?January 31, 2016 at 10:29 am #214002
PGA and SAG always diverge. I don’t know why people try to get a big meaning out of that. But PGA-DGA diverge is rarer and hasn’t happened in nearly a decade.January 31, 2016 at 11:46 am #214003
This year’s best director and best picture races are turning out to be very weird, yet interesting. I think DGA will help clear up a couple of things, or make things even more messy.
If Adam McKay wins DGA, then TBS will win best Picture.
If McCarthy takes the DGA, then it seems like spotlight or TBS could take BP.
If Alejandro G Iñárritu wins DGA, then TBS would still be frontrunner, but a Revenant upset wouldn’t be surprising.
If either Miller or Scott takes SAG, then I think it would be safe to assume TBS for BP.
January 31, 2016 at 2:42 pm #214004
I really did not think that The Big Short would lose to Spotlight at SAG, but have said that I would predict The Big Short for the Oscar regardless. 12 Years a Slave versus American Hustle is the template. The former got more SAG nominations, an actual Oscar acting win, plus Chiwetel Ejiofor was runner-up and it got Best Picture of course, yet it still lost ensemble despite having a sizeable ensemble. I have had The Revenant predicted for DGA, so I guess we are heading for a three-way split now.January 31, 2016 at 2:45 pm #214005
I’ve been on record saying that ‘The Revenant’ will win if ‘Spotlight’ wins SAG and the former wins BAFTA and DGA.
BAFTA means slightly less because it is a makeup win (like Lawrence for ‘American Hustle’), but DGA going back to him would be absolutely huge.
So, step one is complete. I think ‘Spotlight’ is a pretty distant third, so short of winning those races (which it won’t), it is ‘The Big Short’ vs. ‘The Revenant’. If George Miller wins DGA, ‘The Big Short’ has BP locked up.January 31, 2016 at 3:23 pm #214006
What If Ridley wins DGA?
Then I will laugh like a hyena. I suppose a sentimental Ben Affleck-style pity award isn’t out of the question, but let’s hope not.
I’m currently predicting McKay for DGA and Oscar win. The work is showy enough – this was also somewhat true of surprise winner Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech, some would say to its detriment – and something tells me Iñárritu would have to have an indisputable frontrunner, with PGA and everything, to win two in a row. I could be wrong though. I had George Miller down for a while, but I’m not convinced he’s this year’s Alfonso Cuarón. That BP/BD split was down to a very close race with a tie for PGA, and no one seems to think Mad Max can actually win Best Picture. As for McCarthy, I think Spotlight would have to be the de facto frontunner for him to go along with the ride. With The Big Short winning PGA, McKay seems to be the type to be able to do that.January 31, 2016 at 3:27 pm #214007
I think I’ll end up predicting The Big Short for picture no matter what happens from this point out (unless it loses WGA or something weird). I’ll predict the DGA winner for director, in the three way splits the DGA winner went on to win director 3 out of the 4 the exception being Soderbergh who was double nominated for director. I’m still predicting McKay for DGA I think there’ll be some resistant to giving AGI two in a row but Miller seems quite possible.
The preferential ballot’s effects are only really felt when there are three or more viable options. PGA is the only result we get with a preferential ballot, that has to be taken into account. That being said there is a doubt in my mind that producers are probably the most financially literate group the academy has, maybe this was a film just in their wheelhouse.January 31, 2016 at 5:23 pm #214008
It’s true that PGA and DGA splits are rare, but I think Miller can pull this off. We’ll see though.February 7, 2016 at 10:33 am #214009
Now that the split has taken place, we’ll see who prevails at the Oscars. Iñárritu will probably win Best Director over Miller now that he has the DGA, but I’m still unsure about Best Picture. I believe it’s still a three-way race between the three films.
PGA: The Big Short
DGA: The Revenant