February 23, 2014 at 4:31 pm #142675
I went back 18 pages and couldn’t find this – weird, since was such an active topic and this is one of the most competitive and unclear categories this year.
Again, for the first time, all members will be eligible to vote. They have been asked to watch all 5 films (the Academy sent them out about a week ago).
So it’s uncharted territory, making this very unpredictable.
Generally, The Great Beauty is the favorite based on not very much evidence. It has won the most, has done the most business and is currently in play. It has member-friendly elements, but I keep hearing a lot of people don’t like it (it has been nicknamed “White People’s Problems,” referring to the very privileged central character’s general disposition to life. Still, it has fans and has to be considered competitive.
I hear little about The Hunt or Missing Picture, though that means little.
A lot of people (who mostly don’t like it, like me) think Broken Circle Breakdown could be the most audience friendly.
The sleeper – and the one film I am hearing from multiple sources, both members and people who talk to them – is that Omar is screening very well among those who are watching all 5. I am hearing it is getting particularly strong response from Jewish members (who are in some cases more interested in the subject matter) and positive word of mouth from those who have seen it has spread.
I guess I’d recommend sticking with Great Beauty, but Omar has been mostly off the radar, so if you want to take some risk, I’d consider going with it.February 23, 2014 at 4:46 pm #142677
I would have Omar if this was the old system, not open to the entire Academy. It fits the profile of some past winners…but I have a hard time considering it if everyone is voting, including many who won’t view all the films. It’s completely different now, and will skew more to consensus and awards traction prior to the Oscars.February 23, 2014 at 5:09 pm #142678
The Hunt is old news. It came out like two Cannes ago, and I don’t think it will inspire any interest besides Mads Mikkelsen’s performance. I think it’s between The Great Beauty and Broken Circle Breakdown. But this category is weak, though. I wouldn’t say any of the five is bad per se, but none of them are really that great. If only Blue didn’t have that annoying eligibility rule…February 23, 2014 at 6:23 pm #142679
^for me, I thought the Hunt was a brilliant film, the best I saw last year. I would be thrilled if it won, but I haven’t seen all of the competition. I know it doesn’t have the same momentum, and I feel like the Great Beauty is probably the best bet. While I know what I would vote for, I don’t know what will get the most votes.February 23, 2014 at 9:26 pm #142680
Will the whole Academy voting my guess is many people will just watch the film with the biggest buzz, and if they like it they will vote for that. So I think The Great Beauty will take it.February 24, 2014 at 4:12 am #142681
I feel like the nominees this year are weaker compare to the awesome ones we had before.February 24, 2014 at 8:12 am #142682
I’ve only seen Omar and The Hunt. I don’t see either winning. But maybe a lot of angry Woody Allen fans will vote for The Hunt? 🙂February 24, 2014 at 10:07 am #142683
Broken Circle is the most audience accessible and if this is the first year that all folks can vote I would guess that it may edge out the more artsy , upmarket G B ; if there had been no rule changes then the GB would have been an easy winner , but this year things could really change ..the ”steak eaters ” in the Guilds will , I imagine , find the Broken Circle , with it’s radical secularism , anti religion , anti George Bush and nostalgic vision of a idealistic America more appealing ; let’s face it , it’s a very Left wing type of movie that’s sure to go down well with the Liberal folk in the AcademyFebruary 24, 2014 at 10:09 am #142684
I’m not sure a lot of the “steak eaters” even watch the foreign language nominees, let alone vote for them.February 24, 2014 at 10:11 am #142685
Oh please, Broken Circle is politically and aesthetically the safest and less political film in the bunch, if it is an ideological choice..
Where do you get this stuff? You must have some great peyote over there.
If politics is a factor, then Omar will win, with a lot of left-leaning members (particularly Jewish ones) wanting to stick of finger in Netanyahu’s eye.February 24, 2014 at 10:24 am #142686
^ I don’t think it’s possible AMPAS voters can be *that* leftist.February 24, 2014 at 10:33 am #142687
I do not know why people would vote for The Great Beauty, but it miraculously won both BAFTA and the Globe, which is a rarity for this category, so I am convinced that it has the momentum.
The Hunt should win.February 24, 2014 at 10:55 am #142688
Most importantly, it won the European Film Award, vastly more important than the 1-country BAFTA or the irrelevant Globe.February 24, 2014 at 11:11 am #142689
But not nearly as relevant to the Oscars.February 24, 2014 at 11:39 am #142690
I disagree. The European Film Award is the second most important film award in the world.
Too many people here think Academy members follow other awards or care what other groups give awards similar to the way they do. They don’t. I’ll be 95% of the Academy members have no idea what won BAFTA for FL film. More will know what the GGs do, but most members regard them as irrelevant. Most European members – of whom there are many – are more award of what won best film from the EFAs, even if GD members don’t.